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Montreal Protocol Amendment Essential to Meeting Paris Climate Commitment

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According to a new report by the Rhodium Group, implementing an HFC amendment under a “newly reinvigorated Montreal Protocol” will help boost the gap between the US emissions reduction pledge and its trajectory under current policies.

As made clear by the successful Paris Agreement, a new era of international cooperation and action against climate change has been made possible in no small part by the continued efforts of the Obama Administration. Through the implementation of federal climate policies, such as the Clean Power Plan, the US has successfully bent emissions from energy consumption 11% below 2005 level.

According to the Rhodium analysis, current policies will bring US emissions reductions to 23% below 2005 levels by 2025, still short of the US commitment to reduce emissions by 26-28% below 2005 levels by 2025.

Predictions under the “current policy” estimate an increase in HFC emissions of 55% above 2005 levels by 2020 and 85% by 2025. However, Rhodium anticipates that with an HFC amendment to the Montreal Protocol, as well as stringent national policies, HFC emissions would be limited to just 13% above 2005 level in 2020, and 4% by 2025 (see figure 8 & 9).

The “reductions achievable by adoption of the Montreal Protocol amendment to phase down HFCs,” highlight the “importance for near-term efforts by the Obama Administration” in achieving the Paris commitments.