IGSD

Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development

IGSD Publications

2019

High Tide Tax: The price to protect Coastal Communities from Rising Seas

The Center for Climate Integrity – 2019

Summary

The United States faces more than $400 billion in costs over the next 20 years, much of it sooner, to defend coastal communities from inevitable sea-level rise. These costs reflect the bare minimum coastal defenses that communities need to build to hold back rising seas and prevent chronic flooding and inundation. More than 130 counties face at least $1 billion in costs, and 14 states will see expenses of $10 billion or greater between now and 2040. The question is, will taxpayers be on the hook for all the costs of climate adaptation, or will polluters be forced to pay their fair share?

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Mobile Air Conditioning: The Life-Cycle and Greenhouse- Gas Benefits of Switching to Alternative Refrigerants and Improving System Efficiencies

ICCT & IGSD – 2019

Summary

Mobile air conditioning (MAC) systems are a significant source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from vehicles. This study, conducted by the International Council on Clean Transportation in partnership with IGSD, examines the GHG benefits and costs of switching to improved refrigerants and more efficient AC systems. This research is intended to support implementation of the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer, which requires the phase-down of HFC refrigerants and also targets improvements in energy efficiency.

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2018

The Global Search and Commercialization of Alternatives and Substitutes for Ozone Depleting Substances

Stephen O. Andersen, Nancy, J. Sherman, Suely, Carvalho, & Marco, Gonzalez – Nov. 2018

Summary

The Montreal Protocol has halted 99% of global production of chemical substances that deplete stratospheric ozone, which protects life on earth from the harmful effects of ultraviolet (UVB) radiation. UVB causes skin cancer and cataracts, suppresses the human immune system, destroys plastics, and damages agricultural crops and natural ecosystems. Because ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) are powerful greenhouse gases, the Montreal Protocol also protects climate. From the authors’ perspectives in multiple roles as environmental entrepreneurs, practitioners, and authorities, this paper explains how individuals, companies, and military organizations researched, developed, commercialized and implemented alternatives to ODSs that are also safer for climate. With the benefit of hindsight, the authors reflect on what was neglected or done badly under the Montreal Protocol and present lessons learned on how Montreal Protocol institutions can be renewed and revitalized to phase down hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs).

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Life-Cycle Climate Performance Metrics and Room AC Carbon Footprint

Stephen O. Andersen, James Wolf, Yunho Hwang & Jiazhen Ling – 2018

Summary

The comprehensive carbon metric accounts for the fact that AC electricity use and the integrated carbon intensity of that electricity can be up to 48% higher than estimated using national “average” assumptions. Taking real-world operating conditions and the actual carbon intensity of electricity generation, transmission, and distribution at the end-use into consideration provides for a more accurate assessment of the significant climate and economic benefits from energy efficiency and power grid investment.

This article was published in ASHRAE Journal, November 2018. Copyright 2018 ASHRAE. Posted at www.ashrae.org.

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The Kigali Amendment’s and China’s Critical Roles in Evolving the Montreal Protocol

 Xiaopu Sun and Tad Ferris – Fall 2018

Summary
The following is a review of the continuing evolution of the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer, including the Kigali Amendment’s critical role in evolving the Montreal Protocol into a full-fledged climate treaty. Before the Kigali Amendment, the Montreal Protocol controlled about 100 ozone-depleting substances including chlorofluorocarbons and hydrochlorofluorocarbons, which are powerful greenhouse gases (GHGs), and thus the Montreal Protocol has always contributed significantly to the mitigation of climate change. The Kigali Amendment expanded the scope of the Montreal Protocol to encompass explicitly the phasedown of super GHGs, or those with very high global warming potential in the form of hydrofluorocarbons (or HFCs), although they have only a negligible impact on the ozone layer. We also discuss energy efficiency improvements to cooling equipment, which, because of the opportunity to simultaneously upgrade the energy efficiency of equipment, augments the climate change mitigation potential of the substance phasedowns and reduces related air pollutants by reducing indirect emissions from electricity generation. Phasing down HFCs has the potential to avoid up to 0.5ºC of warming by 2100. Improvements to the energy efficiency of cooling equipment could perhaps double this.

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Legal Pathways to Deep Decarbonization in the United States: Summary & Key Recommendations

Chapter 34: Fluorinated Gasses 

N. Borgford-Parnell, S. O. Andersen, & D. Zaelke- 2018

Summary

The chapter covers fluorinated GHGs, namely hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). The Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project reports seek to reduce HFC and hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC) emissions in the United States by 96 million metric tons (MMT) CO2 equivalent (CO2eq) by 2050. HFCs replaced chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and HCFCs that have been phased out under the Montreal Protocol on Substances That Deplete the Ozone Layer because they were depleting the stratospheric ozone layer. Due largely to their use as substitutes for CFCs and HCFCs, HFCs are the fastest growing GHGs in the United States, growing from 0.3 MMT CO2eq in 1990 to 149.4 MMT CO2eq in 2010. EPA, many states, and businesses have already begun acting to speed the phasedown of HFCs in the United States. There are a number of legal pathways at the fed- eral, state, and local levels that would further reduce emissions of HFCs and speed markets to a safe transition to environmentally friendly alternatives. Additional climate benefits can be realized by simultaneously improving the energy efficiency of equipment during the transition away from high-global warming potential (GWP) refrigerants.

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Even as climate emissions push planet towards 1.5C limit, we can still avoid up to 1C of future warming- from our air conditioners

IGSD – 2018

Summary

Time is running out to reduce climate emissions enough to keep the planet from breaching the 1.5°C guardrail for relative safety, according to the IPCC’s special 1.5°C report published in October 2018. Under current trends, we will push the planet past the 1.5°C guardrail in as little as 12 years, and add 50% more warming than we are experiencing today. A strategy that combines both energy efficiency to reduce CO2 and reductions of HFC refrigerants has the potential to avoid up to 1°C of further warming.

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Enhanced and Localized Life-Cycle Climate Performance (EL-LCCP) Metric for ACs

IGSD, Global Policy Associate, CEEE, & UMD – 2018

Summary

The Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol phases down the production and consumption of HFCs that were once necessary to rapidly phase out ozone depleting substances but are no longer needed because alternatives have been and will continue to be commercialized. The Kigali Amendment complements the emission controls of the UNFCCC Kyoto Protocol and contributes to satisfying the “nationally determined contributions” to reduce greenhouse gas emissions pledged under the 2016 Paris Climate Agreement. In 2016, International Institute of Refrigeration proposed using Life-Cycle Climate Performance metric for air-conditioning systems while summing up carbon-equivalent direct refrigerant emissions, indirect power plant greenhouse gas emissions, and carbon-equivalent embodied emissions. This paper describes an Enhanced and Localized Life- Cycle Climate Performance metric developed by a team of international experts to reflect real-life air-conditioning system operations.

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Cooling with Less Warming: Improving Air Conditioners in India

TERI, NRDC & IGSD – 2018

Summary

As nations phase out ozone-depleting refrigerants to comply with the Montreal Protocol, the AC industry faces the challenge – and opportunity – of switching to refrigerants that have lower global warming potential (GWP). This transition to climate-friendly refrigerants also provides the opportunity to develop more energyefficient AC designs that will simultaneously help reduce growing energy demand and combat climate change. This factsheet provides an overview of the growing Indian AC market, strategies to advance climate- friendly ACs, and market opportunities under theMontreal Protocol. The factsheet also profiles two climate-friendly refrigerants with growing use in the AC market, both in India and worldwide.

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Improving Air Conditioners in India

NRDC, IGSD & TERI – 2018

Summary

Urbanization, rising temperatures, and more frequent heat waves in India are driving cooling demand higher. Further, as living standards rise and electricity reaches more homes across India, sales of room air conditioners (ACs) are growing. The room AC stock has skyrocketed from 2 million units in 2006 to approximately 30 million units in 2017. Air conditioners are now viewed as a necessity for a healthy lifestyle, similar to the perception of refrigerator ownership in the 1990s. But, ACs also burden electric grids with greater peak power demand, leading to higher power plant fuel consumption and increasingly poor air quality. Increased AC use also exacerbates harmful climate change caused by emissions of carbon dioxide from power generation and the release of refrigerants such as hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), potent heat trapping gases used in air conditioners. For the room AC market to grow sustainably, “climate-friendly” room ACs – those that are both energy efficient and use climate- safe refrigerant gases – are needed.

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2017

Well Under 2 Degrees Celsius: Fast Action Policies to Protect People and the Planet from Extreme Climate Change

Scripps, UCSD & IGSD – 2017

Summary

Climate change is an urgent problem requiring urgent solutions. This report lays out urgent and practical solutions that are ready for implementation now, will deliver benefits in the next few critical decades, and places the world on a path to achieving the longterm targets of the Paris Agreement and near-term sustainable development goals. The solutions consist of four building blocks and 3 levers to implement ten scalable solutions described in this report by a team of climate scientists, policy makers, social and behavioral scientists, political scientists, legal experts, diplomats and military experts from around the world.

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Leap Frogging to Super Efficiency

TERI, IGSD, TERRE, & EESL – 2017

Summary

This paper describes how government, and environmental non-governmental organizations (NGOs) in India are finding synergy and innovative market transformation mechanisms in the pursuit of affordable super-efficient room air conditioners using refrigerants that are less damaging to climate. The synergy is at an early stage of success, but with much more work needed, including communication of lessons learned and advice for implementation in India’s export markets and replication worldwide.

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2016

China’s Air Pollution Rules: Compliance and Enforcement Lessons From Global Good Practices

IGSD, EarthPace & Peking University Law School- 2016

Summary

In recent years, air pollution issues have received unprecedented public attention in China. Partly for this reason, the Chinese government has made significant efforts toward reducing air pollution. However, compliance and enforcement will be key to cleaning up the air in China and around the globe. This Article discusses seven specific challenges to achieving effective compliance with and enforcement of the air pollution rules in China. In this regard, global good practices can be useful references for the Chinese government and other stakeholders. Yet such discussions and considerations are only truly useful when viewed and considered within the context of China’s unique rulemaking and governance systems, as well as its cultural background.

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Examining Patents for Alternatives to Hydrofluorocarbons in India

EEW, NRDC, C2ES, & IGSD – 2016

Summary

Patents and other intellectual property such as know how are a complex issue for policy makers and civil society experts, especially considering the large number of patents involved and the sensitivity and confidentiality around licensing agreements. This paper does not attempt to find a solution to the patent debate. Rather, it examines developing country experiences in dealing with patents during earlier transitions under Montreal Protocol as well as highlights the key issues faced by Indian industry and policy makers.

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2015

 

How Can the U.S. Lead in Paris to Achieve a Climate Agreement We Can Live With?

ELI – 2015

Summary
Read Durwood Zaelke’s Debate: “Post-Paris Pivot to Fast Climate Change Mitigation” from ELI’s Environmental ForumHow Can the U.S. Lead in Paris to Achieve a Climate Agreement We Can Live With?

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Patents and the Role of the Multilateral Fund

C2ES & IGSD – 2015

Summary
Parties to the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer are considering actions to phase down hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) because of their contributions to climate change. One important issue raised by Article 5 Parties1 is the concern that patents on recently developed low-global warming alternatives could restrict access to or increase the costs of transitioning to these substitutes. This paper looks at how issues related to patents have previously impacted the phase-out of ozone-depleting substances by Article 5 Parties with a focus on the role played by the Protocol’s Multilateral Fund.

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Technological Change in the Production Sector under the Montreal Protocol

C2ES & IGSD – 2015

Summary
With negotiations under the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer (Montreal Protocol) considering limits on hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) as potent greenhouse gases, this paper examines past transitions during the relatively short, but dynamic history of this international treaty. It focuses on past shifts from chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) to hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) to HFCs, with the goal of identifying lessons that can inform discussions aimed at transitioning from high-global warming potential (high-GWP) HFCs.

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Amending the Montreal Protocol: Summary of amendment proposals and discussion of key components to phasing down HFCs

NRDC, EEW & IGSD – 2015

Summary
This paper discusses key aspects of proposed amendments for phasing down HFCs under the Montreal Protocol, including the North American proposal, Micronesian proposal, and the European Union discussion paper. It also discusses key features that could be included in a proposal to phase down HFCs under the Montreal Protocol, including control measures, grace periods, financial assistance from the Multilateral Fund, intellectual property rights, and safety. Furthermore, this paper explores the reasons why countries should consider their own amendment proposal. This paper is part of ongoing research on phasing down HFCs and is part of a series of papers already published on the benefits of switching to lower-GWP alternatives, including Cooling India with Less Warming: The Business Case for Phasing Down HFCs in Room and Vehicle Air Conditioners6 and Reducing Stress on India’s Energy Grid: The Power Sector Benefits of Transitioning to Lower Global Warming Potential and Energy Efficient Refrigerants in Room Air Conditioners,7 among others. 

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Reducing Stress on India’s Energy Grid: The Power Sector Benefits of Transitioning to Lower Global Warming Potential and Energy Efficient Refrigerants in Room Air Conditioners

NRDC, EEW & IGSD – 2015

Summary
This interim draft paper explores the energy efficiency and power sector benefits of air conditioning companies in India to “leapfrog” and phase down unsustainable technologies based on chemicals with high GWP and move to a future based on climate-friendly and energy-efficient refrigerants.

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Benefits of Leapfrogging to Superefficiency and Low Global Warming Potential Refrigerants in Room Air Conditioning

Nihar Shah, Max Wei, Virginie Letschert, & Amol Phadke – 2015

Summary
This paper provides an estimate of the magnitude of such GHG and peak electric load savings potential, for room air conditioning, if the refrigerant transition and energy efficiency improvement policies are implemented either separately or in parallel. We find that implementing HFC refrigerant transition and energy efficiency improvement policies in parallel for room air conditioning, roughly doubles the benefit of either policy implemented separately. While there is some uncertainty associated with emissions and growth projections, moving to efficient room air conditioning (~30% more efficient than current technology) in parallel with lowGWP refrigerants in room air conditioning could avoid upto ~25 billion tonnes of CO2 in 2030, ~33 billion in 2040, and ~40 billion in 2050, i.e. cumulative savings upto 98 billion tonnes of CO2 by 2050. Therefore, superefficient room ACs using low-GWP refrigerants merit serious consideration to maximize peak load reduction and GHG savings.

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Introduction to the special issue on ozone layer protection and climate change: the extraordinary experience of building the Montreal Protocol, lessons learned, and hopes for future climate change efforts

Penelope Canan, Stephen O. Andersen, Nancy Reichman, & Brian Gareau – 2015

Summary
This special issue on Ozone Layer Protection and Climate Change reflects the leadership of the Association of Environmental Studies and Sciences (AESS) in drawing interdisciplinary attention to important environmental issues. The authors are scientists, diplomats, regulatory authorities, environmental activists, and scholars who are intimately involved in actions that protect the stratospheric ozone layer and climate. This issue provides new information and insightful analytic summaries of critical issues in the protection of the atmospheric environment and is also an urgent appeal to professors and students to place atmospheric protection prominently in thinking, research, teaching, and professional activities related to “sustainable development.” The authors describe and document the bold steps taken by individual and institutional leaders involved in the Montreal Protocol to thwart catastrophic ozone layer destruction, which incidentally, albeit on a sound scientific basis, addressed climate change. Because of strong leadership, effective networking, and concepts such the “precautionary principle” and “start and strengthen,” the Montreal Protocol is considered to be the most successful global environmental treaty. For example, thanks to innovative approaches adopted by both industry and government, the Montreal Protocol has already replaced about 85 % of ozone-depleting greenhouse gases with low global warming potential alternatives and increased product energy efficiency. But hardwork is needed to overcome the important challenges that remain, such as the phasedown of the 15 % of alternatives that are high global warming potential hydrofluorocarbons. Scientists, government officials, scholars, and business people must push for higher standards to achieve the combined goals of reducing both ozone-depleting substances and greenhouse gases.

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The importance of phasing down hydrofluorocarbons and other short-lived climate pollutants

Durwood Zaelke & Nathan Borgford-Parnell – 2015

Summary
While negotiations continue for a United Nations (UN) Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) by December 2015 to take effect in 2020, a parallel effort to achieve fast climate mitigation is needed under the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer (Montreal Protocol) to slow current impacts and reduce risks of passing tipping points that trigger self-amplifying feedback mechanisms that accelerate warming. Fast reductions of short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs), including black carbon (BC), methane (CH4), tropospheric ozone (TO3), and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), can cut the rate of climate change in half by mid-century and by two thirds in the Arctic. The Montreal Protocol can be used to quickly phase down production and consumption of high global warming potential (GWP) HFCs, which can avoid 0.1 °C of warming by 2050, and 0.5 °C by 2100, while catalyzing improvements in appliance energy efficiency, which will provide further climate change mitigation by reducing energy use and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, particularly in fast-growing economies like India and China. The simultaneous global deployment of existing technologies can reduce emissions of BC, CH4, and TO3by enough to avoid an additional 0.5 °C of warming by 2050, while providing immediate benefits for human health, agriculture, and sustainable development. Fast action to reduce the four SLCPs will reduce the risk of setting off irreversible feedback mechanisms and provide urgent optimism and momentum for a successful UN climate treaty in 2015.

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Lessons from the stratospheric ozone layer protection for climate

Stephen O. Andersen – 2015

Summary
Ozone protection was the result of professional confidence and sacrifice; brilliant interdisciplinary science and the good fortune of an ozone hole with no explanation other than manufactured fluorocarbons; and industry and government leadership inspired by the realization that life on earth was in jeopardy. In response to the 1974 warning by Dr. Mario Molina and Dr. F. Sherwood Rowland that chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) were destroying the stratospheric ozone layer, almost 100 ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) have been phased out under the auspices of the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer (Montreal Protocol). This paper describes how the United Nations, national governments, citizens, and companies came together pragmatically for the public good. It describes seminal events where individuals and organizational leaders set the stage, came to agreement, and implemented the technology that protects stratospheric ozone and climate. These individuals, who became “Ozone Champions,” often acted alone and with great courage when they were sideways and crossways to the organizations where they were employed. This paper also describes how practical lessons from the successful Montreal Protocol can guide our global society and how stakeholders can positively influence each other to achieve comprehensive atmospheric protection—including halting climate change. The final section considers how the approaches of the Montreal Protocol can dismiss skepticism and embrace technical optimism in implementing cleaner coal and carbon sequestration, even as society aggressively pursues low-carbon renewable energy, energy efficiency, and a transition to sustainable lifestyles.

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2014

Alternatives to High-GWP Hydrofluorocarbons

IGSD – 2014

Summary
This assessment report aims to give a concise and accessible picture of the current availability of alternative to high-global warming potential (GWP) hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) in their main uses with elaboration of their efficiency, cost-effectiveness, safety, environmental impacts and technical performance, as well as their applicability at high ambient temperatures, with the goal of better informing decision makers about the future of HFCs in a fast-evolving market and regulatory context.

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A Global Response to HFCs through Fair and Effective Ozone and Climate Policies

Chatham House – 2014

Summary
This research paper draws on the discussions at a workshop held at Chatham House in April 2014, outlines the main issues around the question of how best to craft a fair and effective global response to the growth in HFC use. A number of key issues are central to the debate: the principle of equity between developed and developing countries; the availability of alternatives to HFCs; the need for financial support for developing countries; the legal relationship between the climate and ozone regimes; and, underlying all these, the need for political will to resolve these challenges.

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Next-Generation Refrigerants for Energy Efficiency and Climate Protection

Terre Policy Center & IGSD – 2014

Summary
Workshop held in Pune brought together India’s business, government, air conditioning trade association, and civil society leaders to share the latest information on ozone-safe, low-GWP, energy-efficient Room Air Conditioning (RAC) and Mobile Air Conditioning (MAC).

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Mobile Air Conditioning and Room Air Conditioning Strategy to Reduce Climate Forcing from Hydrofluorocarbons

UNEP, IGSD & Terre Policy Center – 2014

Summary
Strategy Paper on HFC Emission Reduction Options – SSFA Milestone.

Update on the HFC phase down in mobile air conditioning

IGSD, NRDC & EEW – 2014

Summary
Global automakers moving to HFO-1235YF, except some German automakers waiting for CO2 systems.

 

2013

Unpacking the Problem

Y. Xu and D. Zaelke – 2013

Summary
Simultaneous efforts to tackle carbon dioxide and short-lived climate pollutants provide the best chance of avoiding dangerous climate change.

The Need for Speed

IGSD – February 2013

Summary
Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are responsible for 55 to 60% of radiative forcing. Fast and aggressive CO2 mitigation is essential to combat the resulting climate change. But this is not enough. CO2 mitigation must be combined with fast and aggressive mitigation of the pollutants causing the other 40 to 45% of warming. These pollutants include black carbon aerosols, tropospheric ozone and its precursor, methane, and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). Because these pollutants have atmospheric lifetimes of days to decades, they are referred to as short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs). Reducing SLCPs is critical for slowing the rate of climate change over the next several decades and for protecting the people and regions most vulnerable to near-term climate impacts.

The Chinese version is here
The French version is here

Cooling India with Less Warming: The Business Case for Phasing Down HFCs in Room and Vehicle Air Conditioners

NRDC, EEW, Teri & IGSD – 2013

Summary
As living standards rise for tens of millions of Indian people, the enormous expansion in room and vehicle air conditioning could strain the country’s electric grid, require increased fuel import, and magnify the impacts of global warming as a consequence of carbon dioxide and refrigerant greenhouse gas emissions. Choices made in the next few years will shape whether Indian consumers, companies, and government authorities can turn the challenges of the room and vehicle air conditioning expansion into a business advantage and national opportunity while reducing climate change, improving air quality, and making air conditioning more efficient and less costly to operate. This paper explores the business case for Indian air conditioning companies to “leapfrog” and phase down unsustainable technologies based on chemicals with high global warming potential (GWP) called hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and move to a future based on climate-friendly refrigerants and energy-efficient equipment designs.

Stratospheric ozone, global warming, and the principle of unintended consequences

Stephen O. Andersena, Marcel L. Halberstadt, & Nathan Borgford-Parnell – 2013

Summary
Stratospheric ozone, global warming, and the principle of unintended consequences—An ongoing science and policy success story.

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The role of HFCs in mitigating 21st century climate change

Y. Xu, D. Zaelke, G. J. M. Velders, & V. Ramanathan – 2013

Summary
There is growing international interest in mitigating climate change during the early part of this century by reducing emissions of short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs), in addition to reducing emissions of CO2. The SLCPs include methane (CH4), black carbon aerosols (BC), tropospheric ozone (O3) and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). Recent studies have estimated that by mitigating emissions of CH4, BC, and O using available technologies, about 0.5 to 0.6C warming can be avoided by mid-21st century. Here we show that avoiding production and use of high-GWP (global warming potential) HFCs by using technologically feasible low-GWP substitutes to meet the increasing global demand can avoid as much as another 0.5C warming by the end of the century. This combined mitigation of SLCPs would cut the cumulative warming since 2005 by 50% at 2050 and by 60% at 2100 from the CO2-only mitigation scenarios, significantly reducing the rate of warming and lowering the probability of exceeding the 2C warming threshold during this century.

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A comprehensive approach for reducing anthropogenic climate impacts including risk of abrupt climate changes

Mario Molina & Durwood Zaelke – 2013

Summary
Annual greenhouse gases emissions in 2010 were at their highest recorded level in spite of a global recession. The risk is growing that the climate system could pass tipping points that lead to abrupt and irreversible impacts on a continental scale, perhaps within decades. Successfully addressing climate change requires fast and aggressive action to reduce CO2 emissions, which are responsible for up to 55% of radiative forcing since 1750. It also requires fast and aggressive action to reduce emissions of the pollutants causing the other 45% of warming – the non-CO2 climate forcers, including hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), black carbon, methane, and tropospheric ozone. Along with reducing CO2, reducing emissions of these non- CO2 climate forcers, which in most cases can be done using existing technologies and existing laws and institutions, can cut the rate of global warming in half for several decades and by two-thirds in the Arctic in the next 30 years. In addition, given the profoundly persistent nature of CO2, it is necessary to explore and implement “carbon-negative” strategies to drawdown existing CO2 on a timescale of decades rather than millennia, and ultimately produce a net drawdown of CO2 when sinks exceed sources.

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2012

Preserving Montreal Protocol Climate Benefits by Limiting HFCs

Guus J. M. Velders, A. R. Ravishankara, Melanie K. Miller, Mario J. Molina, Joseph Alcamo, John S. Daniel, David W. Fahey, Stephen A. Montzka, & Stefan Reimann – 2012

Summary
With no impending global controls on HFCs, the Montreal Protocol offers a near-term path to preserve its climate benefits.

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Strengthening Ambition for Climate Mitigation: The Role of the Montreal Protocol in Reducing Short-lived Climate Pollutants

D. Zaelke, S. Andersen, & N. Borgford- Parnell – 2012

Summary
The level of ambition of the public and policy makers to protect the climate is currently far too low to slow the accelerating pace of climate impacts. Ambition can be strengthened using strategies that disaggregate the overall climate problem into manageable pieces, borrow existing laws and institutions to take fast action following a ‘start and strengthen’ approach. This is illustrated by the strategy to phase down the production and consumption of high global warming potential hydrofluorocarbons under the Montreal Protocol. Such an approach could cut the rate of global warming in half for the next several decades, and even more in the Arctic and other climate vulnerable regions. This can provide fast success and build the sense of urgent optimism needed to raise ambition to do more to address carbon dioxide emissions – the single largest contributor to climate change.  

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2011

Why phase down HFCs under the Montreal Protocol?

IGSD – November 2011

Summary
10 reasons to phase down HFCs under the Montreal Protocol.

Questions & Answers about regulating hydrofluorocarbons under the Montreal Protocol

IGSD – November 2011

Summary
Strengthening the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer (Montreal Protocol‖) to regulate hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) will provide fast-action climate mitigation to complement long-term reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Fast-action to reduce HFC emissions is necessary to avoid tipping points for abrupt, irreversible, and catastrophic climate changes and other ―dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.

Our Planet: Powering Climate Solutions

UNEP – 2011

Summary
The magazine of the United Nations Environment Programme -A.R.Ravishankara, Mario Molina and Durwood Zaelke: At a crossroads

 

Simply protecting and managing naturally regenerating trees has increased food production and reduced conflict-

Romina Picolotti: An equitable arrangement

 

The Montreal protocol should regulate production and use of HFCs-

Veerabhadran Ramanathan and Nithya Ramaathan: An unprecedented opportunity

 

The Chinese version is here
The French version is here

2010

Top 10 Reasons for Addressing Non-CO2 Climate Forcers

IGSD – December 2010

Summary
Top 10 Reasons for Addressing Non-CO2 Climate Forcers, in addition to CO2.

2009

Reducing abrupt climate chante risk using the Montreal Protocol and other regulatory actions to complement cuts in CO2 emissions

Mario Molina, Durwood Zaelke, K. Madhava Sarma, Stephen O. Andersen, Veerabhadran Ramanathan, & Donald Kaniaru – 2009

Summary
Current emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) have already committed the planet to an increase in average surface temperature by the end of the century that may be above the critical threshold for tipping elements of the climate system into abrupt change with potentially irreversible and unmanage- able consequences. This would mean that the climate system is close to entering if not already within the zone of ‘‘dangerous anthropogenic interference’’ (DAI). Scientific and policy literature refers to the need for ‘‘early,’’ ‘‘urgent,’’ ‘‘rapid,’’ and ‘‘fast-action’’ mitigation to help avoid DAI and abrupt climate changes. We define ‘‘fast-action’’ to include regulatory measures that can begin within 2–3 years, be substantially implemented in 5–10 years, and produce a climate response within decades. We discuss strategies for short-lived non-CO2 GHGs and particles, where existing agree- ments can be used to accomplish mitigation objectives. Policy makers can amend the Montreal Protocol to phase down the production and consumption of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) with high global warming potential. Other fast-action strategies can reduce emissions of black carbon particles and precursor gases that lead to ozone formation in the lower atmosphere, and increase biosequestration, including through biochar. These and other fast- action strategies may reduce the risk of abrupt climate change in the next few decades by complementing cuts in CO2 emissions.

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