Phasing Down HFCs Under Montreal Protocol Can Cut Climate Pollution Twice Over

Drives Super-Efficient Air Conditioning, Refrigeration, and Cuts Super Greenhouse Gases

Relief for electricity grids in developing countries, savings for consumers, businesses

1 July 2013, Bangkok – A global phase-down of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) under the Montreal Protocol will drive the development of super-efficient air conditioning and refrigeration that in turn reduces energy use and carbon dioxide pollution, according to representatives from the global air conditioning and refrigeration industry, meeting 29-30 June in Bangkok to showcase progress in developing high-efficiency, climate-friendly alternatives to HFC refrigerants.

The carbon dioxide reductions will be in addition to the direct climate benefits from reducing HFCs, which are referred to as super greenhouse gases because molecule for molecule they are a thousand or more times more powerful at warming the atmosphere than carbon dioxide. Reducing HFCs under the Montreal Protocol can avoid the equivalent of up to 100 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide pollution by 2050 and prevent up to 0.5C of warming by the end of the century.

In addition to the significant climate benefits from phasing down HFCs, deploying super-efficient air conditioners can significantly reduce energy use and carbon dioxide pollution by 2020 and avoid the need for more than 100 medium-sized (500-megawatt) power plants, according to a 2013 assessment commissioned by the Super-efficient Equipment and Appliance Deployment (SEAD) Initiative of the Clean Energy Ministerial, a forum that brings together ministers with responsibility for clean energy technologies from the world’s major economies and ministers from a select number of smaller countries leading in various areas of clean energy.

The energy savings from super-efficient air conditioners and refrigeration have the important benefit of easing pressure on aging electricity grids, especially in developing countries. In India, for example, air conditioners account for 40% to 60% share of peak electricity demand during the summer months in many cities. Super-efficient air conditioners and refrigeration also save money for consumers and businesses.

Industry associations and businesses from Europe, Japan, and the U.S. supported controlling HFCs under the Montreal Protocol to ensure a level playing field and provide the regulatory certainty firms favor when making decisions about how much to invest in new climate-friendly technologies to replace HFCs and the inefficient equipment using these chemicals. The alternative is a growing patchwork of national and regional HFC regulations.

“The business case for natural refrigerants as alternatives to HFCs is growing day-by-day. In commercial refrigeration we already have several thousand new food retail stores worldwide using either CO₂ (R744), ammonia, or hydrocarbons. The customers for these new technologies are buying them because they are more energy efficient. Any pro-active policy can only help accelerate this transition,” said Marc Chasserot, Managing Director, Shecco.

“The challenge that we have in the industry today is with regulatory certainty.  We know that next generation, low GWP options are available for most all air conditioning applications, but the industry simply cannot invest the necessary capital unless we are certain that the next generation refrigerants are needed, and what performance characteristics and GWP levels will be acceptable,” explained Mike Thompson, Global Leader of Refrigerant Strategy Climate Solutions for Trane, Thermo-King.

“While industry is working now to commercialize new lower-GWP refrigerants and foam blowing agents that are safe, energy efficient, reliable, and cost-effective, it finds that international policy certainty drives alternative development – and alternative development drives efficiency,” stated Dave Stirpe, Executive Director, Alliance for Responsible Atmospheric Policy, an organizer of the technology seminar.

“Past phase-outs of refrigerants under the Montreal Protocol over the past 25 years have driven improvements in energy efficiency of up to 30% and sometimes up to 50%” said Durwood Zaelke, President of the Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development in Washington, DC. “The energy savings may be rival the direct climate benefits of reducing HFCs, which are already huge—ten time more than the Kyoto Protocol has been able to do to date.”

“This one, two punch makes the HFC phase-down under the Montreal Protocol the best deal going for the Planet, as well as for business and consumers,” Zaelke added.

President Obama made both appliance efficiency and HFC reductions a prominent part of the Climate Action Plan that he announced last week, with strategies for fast reductions of HFCs in the U.S., as well as high-level support for an HFC amendment under the Montreal Protocol.

Earlier in June, U.S. President Obama and Chinese President Xi agreed “to work together and with other countries through multilateral approaches that include using the expertise and institutions of the Montreal Protocol to phase down the production and consumption of HFCs.” In the same week, a strong majority of the European Parliament’s Environment Committee voted to strengthen the EU’s F-Gas Regulation to phase down HFCs.

Last week, the Parties to the Montreal Protocol took another major step forward at their mid-year working group meeting, launching formal discussions on HFC controls. On the table are two proposals to amend the Protocol to phase down HFCs, one by the Federated States of Micronesia, Morocco and the Maldives, and another by the United States, Canada and Mexico.

The conference, “Advancing Ozone and Climate Technologies: Next Steps”, was attended by representatives from dozens of companies that make and use HFC alternatives for air conditioning, refrigeration, insulating foam, and other applications.

Sponsors included UNDP, UNEP, Climate and Clean Air Coalition to Reduce Short-Lived Climate Pollutants, the U.S. EPA, European Commission, and the Alliance for Responsible Atmospheric Policy.

The conference program is here.

IGSD’s Primer on Short-Lived Climate Pollutants is here.

Presidential leadership remains key to victory this year

Bangkok, 28 June 2013 – Parties to the Montreal Protocol this week took a major step forward in considering action to reduce the production and consumption of hydrofluorocarbons, the super-greenhouse gases known as HFCs. At their mid-year working group meeting in Bangkok, Thailand, which ended today, the Parties established a formal Discussion Group to address the management of HFCs under the Protocol. Two proposals to amend the Protocol to phase down HFCs, one by the Federated States of Micronesia, Morocco and the Maldives, and another by the United States, Canada and Mexico, were the subject of robust discussion in the plenary meeting before the Co-Chairs decided to move forward with the formal group.

“We’ve moved from whether to how,” said Durwood Zaelke, President of the Institute for Governance and Sustainable Development. “This is a big step forward. Parties that in previous years objected to addressing HFCs — even to having HFCs on the agenda—are now suggesting how these super greenhouse gases can be managed under the Protocol.”

The marked shift in parties’ disposition toward addressing HFCs under the Protocol follows recent elevation of the issue to the highest political levels. Earlier this month U.S. President Barack Obama of Chinese President Xi Jinping concluded an agreement to utilize the institutions and expertise of the Montreal Protocol to phase down the production and consumption of HFCs. The U.S.-China announcement took place at the mid-point of climate treaty negotiations in Bonn, Germany where discussions of phasing down HFCs under the Montreal Protocol were also emerging as a recurring theme of those talks. Tuesday U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Indian Prime Minister Manhoman Singh met to discuss climate and energy cooperation, with approaches to address HFCs among the key topics considered.

“The change in attitudes from the BRICS is especially striking,” said Ambassador Asterio Takesy from Micronesia. “First, Russia announced its support last month. Then China announced its agreement with the U.S. three weeks ago. Now we see Brazil, South Africa and even India suggesting steps and criteria for possible management of HFCs by the Montreal Protocol. These developments are exciting and at last augur well for immediate action on climate change.”

Takesy was referring to the Kiruna Declaration of the Arctic Council signed by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in May calling upon Parties to the Montreal Protocol to “take action as soon as possible” to “phase-down the production and consumption of hydrofluorocarbons.”

Abderrahim Chakour, Division Chief, Ministry of Business and New Technologies of Morocco, explained the shift. “We feel that part of the reason for the changing views is the recognition that reducing the amount of HFCs that is made is more effective than trying to control emissions from millions of sources,” he said.

President Obama made HFC reductions a prominent part of the Climate Action Plan that he announced this week, with strategies for fast reductions of HFCs in the U.S., as well as high-level support for the HFC amendment under the Montreal Protocol. “Even with the tremendous progress we’ve made the past six months, continuing leadership from President Obama and President Xi and other heads of government will be needed for a climate victory under the Montreal Protocol this year,” said Zaelke.

A study published this week in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics calculates that replacing HFCs with climate friendly alternatives can avoid up to 0.5°C of warming by 2100, strengthening support for phasing down HFCs as an urgent priority. For context, current warming is about 0.8°C above pre-Industrial levels.

The study in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics is here.

President Obama’s climate action plan is here; the Obama-Xi HFC agreement is here.

Cutting HFCs and other short-lived climate pollutants avoids 1.5°C of warming by end of century

Cutting short-lived climate pollutants comparable to aggressive CO₂ cuts through end of century

Washington DC, 26 June 2013 — A study published today in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics confirms the importance President Obama is placing on cutting hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), as reflected in his climate speech yesterday and his new climate action plan. The study calculates that replacing high-GWP HFCs with low-GPW alternatives, as the U.S. and many other countries have proposed under the Montreal Protocol, can avoid up to 0.5°C of warming by 2100.

“Our calculations show that controlling HFC growth can avoid a significant amount of warming in this century, at least comparable to CO₂ mitigation at 2050, and almost 50 percent of CO₂ mitigation by 2100,” stated Yangyang Xu from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, lead author of the study.

HFC are a small contributor to global warming today, but they are the fastest growing greenhouse gas in many countries, including the US, EU, China, and India. HCFs are used as refrigerants, propellants, and cleaning and foam blowing agents; many are, molecule-for-molecule, thousands of times more powerful at causing warming than CO₂.

Study co-author Dr. V. Ramanathan stated, “It is still possible to avert disastrous climate changes including extreme sea level rise. We have to simultaneously cut down CO₂ and the short-lived climate pollutants: HFCs, methane, tropospheric ozone, and black carbon. HFCs mitigation emerges as an attractive low hanging fruit for mitigating warming.” Dr. Ramanathan is Distinguished Professor at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego. He discovered the greenhouse effect of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) in 1975, which paved the way for identifying the greenhouse effect of other non-CO₂ pollutant gases including HFCs and methane.

“This timely paper shows how important reducing high-GWP HFCs can be for avoiding future warming. It confirms the UNEP-World Meteorological Organization assessment on avoided warming from black carbon and methane and tropospheric ozone, then extends the analysis by adding the avoided warming from reducing high-GWP HFCs, concluding that this will avoid another 0.1°C of warming by 2050, and up to 0.5°C by the end of the century,” stated Dr. A. Ravishankara, Director at the Chemical Sciences Division of the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory.

Nobel Laureate Mario Molina stated, “We’ve known for several decades that some of the HFCs developed to replace ozone-depleting CFCs are powerful climate change agents, but this is the first calculation showing how much global warming we can avoid by reducing emissions of these chemicals, helping us to address the challenge in the near-term as well as through the end of the century.” Dr. Molina is Distinguished Professor of Chemistry and Biochemistry at University of California, San Diego; he shared the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 1995 for his work on the impact of CFCs on the stratospheric ozone layer.

Co-author Dr. Guus Velders, from the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment in The Netherlands, stated, “The metric of ‘avoided warming’ in a given time frame may be the most relevant for climate policymakers today. This paper now adds the avoided warming from limiting HFCs growth to the earlier work of UNEP and WMO, which calculated how much warming can be avoided by cutting black carbon, methane, and tropospheric ozone. HFCs in the atmosphere are growing at a high rate throughout the world, 10 to 15% per year, making them a vital target for climate mitigation.”

“The findings of our study provide even greater justification for phasing-down HFCs under the Montreal Protocol,” stated Durwood Zaelke, co-author of the study and President of the Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development. “It’s the biggest, fastest, and cheapest climate mitigation available to the world today.”

Earlier this month at the first-ever summit between President Obama and President Xi, the two presidents agreed to work together to phase down HFCs under the Montreal Protocol. More than 100 other Parties to the Montreal Protocol have expressed support for reducing HFCs. A formal discussion group was formed this week during the Montreal Protocol Open-ended Working Group meeting to discuss how best to deal with HFCs, an important milestone in the effort to reach consensus on the amendment.

“The prominence that the President gave HFCs in his speech and his climate plan makes it clear that he will be continuing his personal diplomacy to ensure a swift victory under the Montreal Protocol,” added Zaelke. “Phasing down HFCs will be seamless, and won’t even be noticed by the consumers.”

Author contact information:

Yangyang Xu: yangyang@ucsd.edu

Durwood Zaelke: dzaelke@inece.org

Guus Velders:  guus.velders@pbl.n

Ramanathan: vramanathan@ucsd.edu

This piece is also available in French and Chinese.

Fast climate mitigation possible from controlling diesel engines Extra warming from previously ignored brown carbon also confirmed

Washington DC, 12 June 2013 — In a first-of-its kind study examining the impact black carbon has on climate in California, researchers found the state’s efforts to reduce air pollution, particularly from diesel engines, has cut black carbon concentrations by 90% since 1966, without any noticeable disruption to the lives of the citizens of California, but with tremendous benefits to their health, as well as to climate protection. Concentrations have decreased by 50% since the late 1980’s, which is equivalent to reducing 21 million metric tons of carbon dioxide annually or the same as taking 4.1 million cars off California’s streets every year.

The 3-year study, funded by the California Air Resources Board and led by Scripps Distinguished Professor of Climate and Atmospheric Sciences Veerabhadran Ramanathan, was conducted by the University of California San Diego, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory at UC Berkeley, and the U.S. Department of Energy’s Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, and is the first-of-its-kind comprehensive regional assessment of the climate impact of black carbon on the Golden State.

Researchers used California’s extensive network of air pollution monitors as well as aircraft, satellites and computer models to study black carbon — tiny black particles released into the atmosphere from burning fossil fuels, wood, and waste. Black carbon is now recognized as the second leading cause of global warming, behind only carbon dioxide. It also is a major public health threat, killing an estimated six million people ever year around the world, and making countless more millions sick with respiratory and cardio-vascular illnesses.

California’s controls on emissions from diesel engines beginning in the 1970’s is in large part responsible for the dramatic reduction of black carbon in the state, although controls on other sources in the transport sector as well as industrial sources, and decreased burning of wood and waste, are also likely contributors. While the controls were put in place to improve public health, a co-benefit of reducing emissions of this major component of soot, according to the study, has been to slow the pace of climate change.

“We know that California’s programs to reduce emissions from diesel engines have helped clean up the air and protect public health,” said CARB chairman Mary D. Nichols. “This report makes it clear that our efforts to clean up the trucks and buses on our roads and highways also help us in the fight against climate change.”

Significantly, the study found that co-emitted pollutants such as sulfates and organic carbon did not decrease at the same time as the black carbon. Many of these co-emitted pollutants reflect light back into the atmosphere causing cooling that can offset some of the warming caused by black carbon. These results support a growing body of evidence that mitigation of black carbon emissions, particularly from diesel engines, can provide fast mitigation of global warming.

The study also found that brown carbon — a type of organic carbon that is typically ignored in climate models — is also a potent warming agent, offsetting up to 60 to 90% of the cooling caused by other lighter organic carbons. Brown carbon is emitted primarily from sources such as forest fires and residential wood burning, which previous studies believed to have negligible climate effect, or even a cooling effect. The results from the California study indicate that reducing emissions from these sources may also provide a benefit to climate mitigation.

“If California’s efforts in reducing black carbon can be replicated globally, we can slow down global warming in the coming decades by about 15 percent, in addition to protecting people’s lives,” Ramanathan said. “It is a win-win solution, if we also mitigate CO2 emissions simultaneously.”

“Reducing black carbon globally, along with other short-lived climate pollutants, including methane, tropospheric ozone, and hydrofluorocarbons, or HFCs, can cut the rate of global warming in half and the rate of warming in the Arctic by two-thirds over the next few decades,” said Durwood Zaelke, President of the Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development. “It also can save millions of lives every year, and significantly reduce crop damage.”

Efforts are already underway to phase down HFCs under the Montreal Protocol, a treaty that has already phased out nearly 100 similar chemicals by nearly 100%. U.S. President Obama and Chinese President Xi reached an agreement last week to work together to reduce HFCs using the Montreal Protocol.

“Success like this in California and with HFCs builds the momentum and confidence we need to address all sources of climate pollution, including carbon dioxide from energy production,” Zaelke added. “Enlisting national air pollution laws and institutions, and institutions like the Montreal Protocol is the fastest and most secure way to get climate protection.”

A summary of the report is here. A copy of the report is here.

The CCAC website is here.

IGSD’s Primer on Short-Lived Climate Pollutants is here.

Targets “super” pollutants: black carbon, methane, ground-level ozone, and HFC coolants

Washington, D.C., 9 May 2013 — Congressman Scott Peters (D-Calif.) today introduced the Super Pollutant Emissions Reduction Act of 2013, or SUPER Act, to establish a U.S task force to reduce super climate pollutants under existing authorities. The super pollutants, also know as short-lived climate pollutants because they remain in the atmosphere for only short periods, include black carbon, a primary component of soot, tropospheric ozone, the principle component of urban smog, methane, and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), factory-made chemicals used in air conditioning, refrigeration, and insulating foams.

The bill designates these as “super pollutants” because they are hundreds to thousands of times more potent in their warming effects than carbon dioxide. Collectively, these super climate pollutants” have contributed up to 40% of observed global warming to date.

Because of their powerful warming impacts and the short time they remain in the atmosphere, reducing these pollutants is essential for slowing the rate of climate change in the near term and reducing dangerous climate impacts over the next several decades. In addition, black carbon and tropospheric ozone are traditional air pollutants, and reducing them will help to prevent many of the estimated six million deaths that occur every year from air pollution and will reduce the burden of disease for many more, while also improving food security.

“The combined benefits for improving public health and food security, as well as reducing near-term warming, should make reducing super pollutants a no brainer that is welcomed across party lines,” said Durwood Zaelke, President of the Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development.

“This bill comes at a perfect time,” said Professor V. Ramanathan at Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego. “Science has informed us that it is still not too late to slow down warming in the coming decades by a factor of two if we act now” to reduce these super pollutants.

Reducing these super pollutants worldwide can cut the rate of global warming in half over the next 40 years, avoid more than 0.6°C in cumulative warming by 2050 and 1.1°C or more warming by 2100. “Reducing the super pollutants is absolutely essential for staying below the 2°C guardrail,” said Zaelke. “In addition to cutting the rate of global warming in half, fast action to reduce these pollutants can cut the rate of warming in the Arctic by two-thirds, and the rate of warming over the elevated regions of the Himalayas and Tibet by at least half.”

“The U.S. has shown leadership on short-lived climate pollutants at the international level by co-founding the Climate and Clean Air Coalition to Reduce Short-Lived Climate Pollutants,” said Zaelke. “But the U.S. is still among the largest emitters of HFCs in the world and per capita emitters of black carbon. Taking decisive domestic actions will deliver concrete benefits here at home, and help restore U.S. leadership on climate protection worldwide.”

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Congressman Scott Peter’s press release is here.

IGSD’s analysis of mitigation strategies for the SLCP Task Force is here. IGSD’s Primer on Short-Lived Climate Pollutants is here.

The Climate and Clean Air Coalition to Reduce Short-Lived Climate Pollutants website is here.

Washington, DC 14 April 2013 – Sea-level rise—a growing threat that washes away beaches, attacks costal development, and raises the platform for launching ever more damaging and deadly storm surges—can be cut significantly by reducing local air pollution from black carbon, methane, and tropospheric ozone, along with factory- made coolants called HFCs.

This is the conclusion of a multi-year research effort led by Professor V. Ramanathan at Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, published online 14 April by Nature Climate Change. The study calculated that the annual rate of sea-level rise could be reduced up to 24% by 2100 by controlling these four climate pollutants, and that cumulative sea-level rise could be reduced by 22%.

‘It is still not too late to avoid disastrous climate changes,” stated study-lead, Dr. Ramanathan. “If we stabilize CO2 concentrations below 450 ppm by 2100 and simultaneously reduce SLCPs, we can limit the end-of-century warming by 50% and keep below the 2°C (3.6°F) safety guardrail, from the projected 4°C (7.2°F).”

These four climate pollutants are collectively known as “short-lived climate pollutants” because they clear out of the atmosphere in a matter of days to a decade and a half. Previous research by Dr. Ramanathan and a follow-on study by the United Nations Environment Programme & the World Meteorological Organization showed that cutting SLCPs, using existing technologies and institutions in most cases, can cut the rate of climate change by half or more by mid- century.

The current study calculates the significant additional benefits that SLCP mitigation can provide by the end of the century—a critical 1.1°C reduction in future warming. This is the same avoided warming aggressive carbon dioxide mitigation can produce in this period. Cutting both SLCPs and CO2 can avoid 2.3°C of warming and keep the Planet under the 2°C guardrail according to the study, and reduce the rate of sea-level rise by up to 50%, with SLCP’s providing two-thirds of the reductions.

“Combined mitigation will reduce the cumulative sea level rise by about 30% (from the projected 0.5 m to 2 m/ 1.5 ft to 6.2 ft),” added Dr. Ramanathan. “It is encouraging that SLCPs contribute about half of the warming reduction and about two-thirds of the sea level rise reduction, since we have technologies to reduce them. Without CO2 stabilization below 450 ppm, however, both the warming and sea level can rise to dangerous levels beyond 2100.”

The damage from rising seas and higher storm surges is one of the most visible and costly effects of climate change. Populations and infrastructure of coastal cities will become more vulnerable to flooding and storm surges, which are also expected to become more frequent and stronger as global temperatures rise. Indirect impacts can include impacts on job markets and tax revenue, and changes in population and migration. According to a 2010 OECD study, a rise in sea-levels of only three feet (1 meter) by 2070 puts at risk 150 million people and $35 trillion in assets in just 20 of the world’s most vulnerable and fastest growing port cities, more than half of which are in developing Asian countries.

“This ground-breaking study provides the blueprint for climate justice this century,” stated Durwood Zaelke, President of the Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development. “Cutting these air pollutants and chemical coolants can cut warming in half for many decades, and is essential for protecting vulnerable people and places this century,” he added. “Failure to cut SLCPs will halt the impressive gains in poverty reduction of the past few decades,” Zaelke said, “and drive millions more into extreme poverty.”

Because three SLCPs are potent air pollutants, cutting them can save millions of lives every year, while significantly increasing crop yields, making this important for promoting sustainable development. In South Asia, for example, air pollution is the leading preventable cause of disease, according to a recent report by the World Health Organization.

“We need an all of the above approach to controlling greenhouse gases. Cutting carbon emissions is critical, but we also need to take advantage of the very substantial short term gains that can be achieved by cutting emissions of non-carbon climate pollutants,” stated study co-author Claudia Tebaldi of Climate Central. “Readily achievable reductions of non-carbon dioxide pollutants would do far more to slow sea level rise this century than actions to reduce carbon emissions alone, protecting millions of people and billions of dollars of real estate from rising seas,” she added.

Based upon data from the U.S. Geological Survey and NOAA, without engineering protection, five feet of sea-level rise could permanently flood 94% of Miami beach, 88% of New Orleans, 7% of New York City, 63% of Atlantic City, 20% of Jersey City, 68% of Galveston TX, 6% of San Francisco, and 4% of Seattle. Approximately 2.6 million homes and 5 million people reside on land less than four feet above high tide in the U.S.; approximately 50% of those people are in the state of Florida.

The study found that delaying mitigation of SLCPs by 25 years will decrease the impact of CO2 and SLCP mitigation, and will make it difficult if not impossible to keep warming below 2°C by the end of the century. Delayed action on SLCPs could increase sea-level rise by up to 11%.

The Climate and Clean Air Coalition to Reduce Short-Lived Climate Pollutants (CCAC) is the first-ever global effort specifically dedicated to reducing emissions of SLCPs, and has already undertaken seven fast-action initiatives designed to mobilize resources and accelerate global action on SLCPs.

The sea-level report drew heavily from the data collected by Project ABC, a United Nations sponsored study of pollution masses known as atmospheric brown clouds, which are especially prevalent in South Asia. SLCPs are the main component of brown clouds emitted primarily from biomass burning, diesel emissions, and methane from landfills.

The study co-authors include: Aixue Hu and Warren M. Washington of the US National Center for Atmospheric Research, and Yangyang Xu of Scripps Institution of Oceanography.

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A summary of the study is here.

A background note on damage from sea-level rise is here. The CCAC website is here.

IGSD’s Primer on Short-Lived Climate Pollutants is here.