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Aggressive cuts to HFCs, black carbon & methane can avoid 0.6°C of warming by mid-century

Missing link on global path to limiting warming below 2°C

Sacramento, 30 September 2015 – Following Governor Jerry Brown’s announcement last week, today the California Air Resources Board released the details of its ambitious new strategy to reduce short-lived climate pollutants. The aggressive strategy will cut California’s emissions of methane and HFCs by 40 percent and black carbon by 50 percent by 2030, and is one of the five key pillars of Governor Brown’s strategy to reduce total greenhouse gas emissions by 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2030. “This strategy will be backed up by legislation and will result in detailed and binding regulations,” Governor Brown said of the anticipated strategy last week.

Short-lived climate pollutants, which contribute as much as 40 percent to the current warming rate, include black carbon, hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), methane, and tropospheric ozone. Because short-lived climate pollutants have a life span of only days to fifteen years, their mitigation benefits will be felt within days to a decade of implementation. Aggressive cuts to short-lived climate pollutants could avoid up to 0.6°C of warming by mid-century, a significant part of the mitigation needed to keep the planet from warming more than 2°C above pre-Industrial levels.

“We’re completely committed,” said Governor Jerry Brown. “We’re mobilizing the science, we’re mobilizing the legislative resources, and whatever else is needed. We will also continue to work with countries like Mexico, India and China to help them deal with air pollution issues.”

Professor Ramanathan, who presented at the UNEP/CCAC event where Governor Brown made the announcement last week, affirmed that over the next 40 years, 86 percent of temperature mitigation will come from short-lived climate pollutants. According to his research, cutting short-lived climate pollutants along with carbon dioxide can also significantly slow sea-level rise, with the short-lived climate pollutants responsible for more than two-thirds of the slowdown by the end of the century.

“Governor Brown understands that we cannot rely solely on long-term CO2 cuts to stop the world from warming above the 2°C guardrail” said Durwood Zaelke, President of the Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development. “Through cuts to HFCs and other short-lived climate pollutants, California is taking the lead down a path toward fast mitigation and demonstrating the health benefits that come with these reductions.”

Authorities around the world are increasingly citing short-lived climate pollutants as an essential strategy to avoid reaching 2°C.  The government of Chile, in its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution released earlier this week, recognized cuts to short-lived climate pollutants as a substantial component of addressing climate change.

Support to phase down HFCs through an amendment to the Montreal Protocol is also increasing, with formal proposals now submitted by 95 countries. Many other countries, including China and Brazil have agreed with President Obama to support the HFC amendment. Negotiations to begin the amendment process will reconvene in the United Arab Emirates in late October.

“The near-term benefits of cutting these pollutants are monumental,” added Zaelke. “An HFC phase down under the Montreal Protocol could avoid 100 (87-146) billion tonnes CO2 equivalent, and by making the appliances that replace HFCs super-efficient, we could add another 100 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent.”

IGSD’s Primer on Short-Lived Climate Pollutants is here and Primer on HFCs is here.

Reducing HFCs, black carbon & methane can cut warming in half and help Post-2015 Development Agenda

New York, 24 September 2015 – Governor Brown stated this afternoon that California will announce an aggressive plan next week to cut methane and HFCs by 40 percent and black carbon by 50 percent in the next fifteen years. This bold action was revealed today at the “Contribution of Short-lived Climate Pollutants to the Post-2015 Development Agenda” event hosted by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) and the Climate and Clean Air Coalition to Reduce Short-lived Climate pollutants (CCAC) at United Nations Headquarters in New York.

“This is the path forward,” said Governor Brown, “Come hell or high water California is going to get there.”  Governor Brown announced that the California Air Resources Board will cut quantified emissions of methane from 38 to 19 MtCO2e by 2030, black carbon from 118 to 71 MtCO2e by 2030, and HFCs from 40 to 24 MtCO2e by 2030. Since 1960, California has already cut its black carbon emissions by 90%.

“California set the pace for the US and the world in cleaning up its smog and other air pollution starting in the 1960s. We have decades of experience that has given us a unique capability to cut air pollution. We arguably have more scientists and engineers working to solve climate change than the federal government,” Governor Brown continued.  “A key element of climate success is the technical capacity to carry out mitigation.”

Short-lived climate pollutants, which are contributing as much as 40 percent to the current warming rate, include black carbon, hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), methane, and tropospheric ozone. Aggressive cuts to short-lived climate pollutants could avoid up to 0.6°C of warming by mid-century, a significant part of the mitigation needed to keep the planet from warming more than 2°C above pre-Industrial levels.

According to Professor Ramanathan, a panel speaker at the event, cutting SLCPs is critical to staying below the 2°C guardrail.  Over the next 40 years, 86 percent of temperature mitigation will come from SLCPs,” he explained. “SLCPs will also have a disproportionally large impact on avoiding sea-level rise because they act quickly.” According to recent research by Professor Ramanathan, aggressive cuts to SLCP can slow sea level rise by nearly a third by mid-century.

“We can’t win the climate challenge without first winning the battle against air pollution and HFCs, which can provide the fastest mitigation in the near-term,” said Durwood Zaelke, President of the Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development, who attended the event. “An HFC phasedown under the Montreal Protocol this year could avoid the equivalent of 100 (87-146) billion tonnes of carbon dioxide by mid-century, and avoid up to 0.5°C of warming by the end of the century.”

“We must also make sure that the appliances that use HFC replacements become super-efficient, because this is a huge additional piece of climate mitigation equivalent to another 100 billion tonnes of CO2, Zaelke continued. “This would provide a critical down payment of emissions reductions needed to stay below 2°C as well as an enormous confidence boost as the world moves forward to Paris at the end of the year.”

Formal proposals to amend the Montreal Protocol to phase down HFCs have now been submitted by 95 countries led by the Federated States of Micronesia.  Many other countries, including China, Brazil, and India have agreed with President Obama to support the HFC amendment. Negotiations to begin the amendment process will reconvene in the United Arab Emirates in late October.   

Cuts to short-lived climate pollutants will also provide huge benefits to global health and wellbeing. According the CCAC “targeting methane and black carbon rich sources could prevent approximately 2.4 million deaths annually…and avoid about 50 million tonnes of lost crop yields by reducing concentrations of ground level ozone.”

IGSD’s Primer on Short-Lived Climate Pollutants is here and Primer on HFCs is here.

Fast methane reductions can slow near-term climate impacts

Washington, DC, 18 August 2015 – The White House announced today federal regulations to reduce 2025 methane emissions from oil and gas production by 40 to 45% from 2012 levels.  Methane is a short-lived climate pollutant (SLCP) and has the potential to quickly slow near-term climate impacts by reducing the immediate damages of climate change, including sea-level rise and extreme weather conditions.  Aggressive SLCPs cuts could avoid up to 0.6°C of warming by mid-century, a significant part of the mitigation needed to keep the planet from warming more than 2°C above pre-Industrial levels.

SLCPs (which include black carbon, hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), and tropospheric ozone) will reduce the rate of warming within days to a decade and a half of implementing mitigation actions, unlike emissions reductions of CO2, which are necessary but won’t reap benefits until many decades after implementation.  For example, SLCPs can provide 71% of avoided sea-level rise by 2100 from an aggressive mitigation strategy of both CO2 and SLCPs.  The biggest avoided sea-level rise percentage contribution of 42% will come from methane (see pie chart below).

SLCP cuts will also provide huge benefits to global health and wellbeing.  According the Climate and Clean Air Coalition to Reduce Short-Lived Climate Pollutants’ (CCAC), “targeting methane and black carbon rich sources could prevent approximately 2.4 million deaths annually…and avoid about 50 million tonnes of lost crop yields by reducing concentrations of ground level ozone.”

“Today’s methane regulations further implement the Administration’s sophisticated strategy of mitigating both short- and long-lived pollutants to fight climate change,” said Durwood Zaelke, President of the Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development. “The President’s strong action against methane and HFCs at home and abroad will provide further incentive for other countries to up their own mitigation targets in the run-up to the climate negotiations in Paris at the end of the year.”

SLR 2100

“Avoided sea-level rise at 2100 due to aggressive mitigation of long-lived CO2 and SLCPs. Such aggressive actions can reduce the rise in sea levels by 35 cm (uncertainty range is 17–70 cm) from the projected sea-level rise of 112 cm (49–210 cm) under a business-as-usual scenario for emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 6.0). The pie chart shows percentage contribution of each pollutant. Mitigation of the SLCP methane would lead to reductions in tropospheric ozone, another SLCP, and hence the pie chart includes both. As a long-lived pollutant, CO2 plays a substantial role (blue section), but reduction in SLCPs (shown in darker colours) would lead to a larger degree of avoided sea level. (Under a more intensive business-as-usual RCP8.5 level, reductions in CO2 would increase the share of CO2 mitigation to 50%).” David G. Victor, Durwood Zaelke & Veerabhadran Ramanathan (2014) Soot and short-lived pollutants provide political opportunity, Nature Climate Change Commentary.

The Nature Climate Change commentary is here.

IGSD’s Primer on SLCPs is here.

Cutting HFCs under Montreal Protocol avoids 0.5°C of warming by end of the century

Successful amendment will boost Paris prospects for UN climate agreement in December

Paris, France, 24 July 2015 – As midnight approached, the Parties to the Montreal Protocol took the unusual step of suspending, rather than adjourning, their Working Group meeting, to ensure they would be able to finalize terms for negotiating the final agreement to phasedown the refrigerants known as hydrofluorocarbons, or HFCs, before treaty’s annual meeting in Dubai 1 to 5 November.  The date for resumption of the Working Group meeting has not been set yet.  

After years of resistance, first from China and India, and more recently from Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, there are no longer any Parties remaining in the way to an agreement on the path forward for formal negotiations to phase down these super greenhouse gases this year during the November meeting.

“There is light at the end of the tunnel,” said Durwood Zaelke, President of the Institute of Governance & Sustainable Development, who was participating in the Paris meeting that concluded a few minutes before midnight Friday night. “This is the breakthrough we’ve been waiting for, and opens the way to concluding the HFC amendment at the November Meeting of the Parties in Dubai, which will provide climate mitigation  equivalent of 100 (87-146) billion tonnes of CO2 by mid-century, and avoid up to 0.5°C of warming by the end of the century.”

“The 95 Parties submitting formal proposals to phasedown HFCs formed a formidable block and moved the discussions forward in a methodical and patient way, overcoming the remaining resistance,” Zaelke added.  They formed a “Friends of the HFC Amendment” group to coordinate their strategy. The Federated States of Micronesia continued its leadership of the island alliance, and Senegal continued its leadership of the 55-country Africa Group.

The Montreal Protocol, widely recognized as the world’s most effective environmental treaty, has already phased out 98% of the production and consumption of CFCs and nearly 100 other chemicals that both destroy stratospheric ozone and warm the climate, successfully putting the stratospheric ozone layer on the path to recovery by midcentury.

In addition to phasing down the HFC refrigerants, experts from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory in California presented their analysis showing that improving the energy efficiency of room air conditioners in parallel with the phase down could also avoid up to 100 billion tonnes of CO2. Energy efficiency improvements of the world’s 900 million air conditioners could produce a cumulative savings up to 97.5 billion tonnes of CO2 by 2050. The researchers also calculate that the savings in peak demand could be equal to 500-1200 gigawatts (GW) of electricity, which would avoid (or free up for other uses), an amount of electricity equal to the production from between 1,000 and 2,500 medium-sized (500 MW) peak-load power plants by 2050, according to the study.

“Improving energy efficiency of air conditioners can at least double the mitigation from phasing down the refrigerant known as HFCs,” said Zaelke.

“A successful HFC amendment this November will provide powerful momentum for the UN climate meeting in Paris in December, and a significant down payment on the mitigation needed to keep the climate safe,” Zaelke added.

The Lawrence Berkeley National Lab report is here.

IGSD’s Primer on HFCs is here.

Parallel phase down of HFC refrigerants more than doubles total mitigation

Dual strategy critical for avoiding 2°C barrier

Paris, France, 20 July 2015 – Improving the energy efficiency of room air conditioners to the level of efficient units already on the market can provide climate mitigation up to 100 billion tonnes of CO2 by 2050, a substantial part of the mitigation needed to keep the planet from warming more than 2°C above pre-Industrial levels, pegged by many scientists and policy makers as the upper temperature limit for preventing potentially irreversible and catastrophic impacts, including punishing heat waves, prolonged droughts, massive floods, more frequent super-storms, and destructive sea-level rise.

Improving efficiency of air conditioners could avoid an estimated ~25 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions in 2030, ~32.5 billion tonnes in 2040, and ~40 billion tonnes in 2050, for a cumulative savings up to 97.5 billion tonnes of CO2, according to researchers at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) in California, who note that there are always some uncertainties associated with such projections. The researchers calculate that the savings in peak demand could be equal to 500-1200 gigawatts (GW) of electricity, which would avoid (or free up for other uses), an amount of electricity equal to the production from between 1,000 and 2,500 medium-sized (500 MW) peak-load power plants by 2050.

The final draft report by Nihar Shah, Max Wei, Virginie Letschert, and Amol Phadke will be released for tomorrow as Benefits of Leapfrogging to Super-efficiency and Low Global Warming Potential Refrigerants in Air Conditioning. (The attached table from the final draft report shows the estimated number of avoided power plants in 2030 and 2050 for select countries, including China, India, Brazil, Egypt, Indonesia, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and UAE.)

“Improving energy efficiency of air conditioners can at least double the mitigation from phasing down the refrigerant known as HFCs, as most Parties to the Montreal Protocol are eager to do through an amendment this year,” said Durwood Zaelke, President of the Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development.  “The proposed HFC amendment would avoid the equivalent of another 100 billion tonnes of CO2 by 2050, and perhaps much more, and would avoid more than 0.5°C of warming by end of century.”

“Leapfrogging over HFCs into climate-friendly alternatives during the ongoing phaseout of HCFCs under the Montreal Protocol would add an additional 39 to 64 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent; this could bring the total mitigation up to 250 to 300 billion tonnes CO2-equivalent by 2050 from a dual strategy to phase down HFCs while improving air conditioning efficiency,” Zaelke added.

“Past phase outs of refrigerants under the Montreal Protocol have catalyzed improvements in appliance energy efficiency on the order of 30 to 60%,” Zaelke said. “Parallel efforts to set efficiency standards and to ban imports of inferior air conditioners could ensure that efficiency was improved even faster.”

“Efficient air conditioners are commercially available today, and can save money for consumers by substantially lowering their operating costs,” said Dr. Nihar Shah, the lead author of the report.  “Our calculations take into account that there will be some rebound effect from efficiency improvements, as some users will use their air conditioners more when they are cheaper to operate.  Even with this, the climate and cost benefits are substantial.”

The Montreal Protocol, widely recognized as the world’s most effective environmental treaty, has phased out 98% of the production and consumption of CFCs and nearly 100 other chemicals that both destroy stratospheric ozone and warm the climate, successfully putting the stratospheric ozone layer on the path to recovery by mid-century.

Five similar proposals have been submitted by a total of 95 Parties to the Montreal Protocol to amend the treaty to phase down the upstream production and consumption of HFCs (leaving the accounting and reporting of the downstream emissions in the UN climate regime). The 95 Parties include a coalition of island States let by the Federated States of Micronesia and the Philippines, the Africa Group of 55 Parties, the U.S., Canada and Mexico, the EU-28, and India.

Many additional Parties support the HFC phase down, including China, where President Xi reached an agreement with U.S. President Obama to phase down the HFCs under the Montreal Protocol. LBNL calculates that improving air conditioner efficiency in China could reduce peak demand by between 130-300 GW by 2030 and between 150 and 360 GW by 2050, avoiding (or freeing up for other uses) electricity generation capacity of up to 620 medium-sized power plants by 2030, and up to 720 by 2050.

India’s Prime Minister Modi and President Obama also agreed to support the phase down through the Montreal Protocol. LBNL calculates that India can reduce peak demand by between 28 and 66 GW by 2030 and between 110 and 250 GW by 2050, avoiding (or freeing up for other uses) electricity generation capacity of up to 130 medium-sized peak-load power plants by 2030, and up to 510 medium sized peak-load power plants by 2050.

President Rousseff of Brazil also signaled Brazil’s support in a joint statement with President Obama last month. LBNL calculates that Brazil can reduce peak demand by between 15 and 36 GW by 2030 and between 46 and 108 GW by 2050, avoiding (or freeing up for other uses) electricity generation capacity of up to72 medium-sized peak load power plants by 2030 and up to 216 by 2050.

The final draft LBNL report is being released tomorrow during the Open-Ended Working Group meeting of the Montreal Protocol being held this week in Paris at an event hosted by LBNL, IGSD, and Terre Policy Centre.  The Meeting of Parties to the Montreal Protocol will be held 1 to 5 November in United Arab Emirates.

While a large majority of countries are pushing for the HFC amendment, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and a few other regional allies have been opposing, in part at least out of concern that the climate-friendly substitutes for HFCs should be tested first in countries with high ambient temperatures such as they experience.  According to Zaelke, “An exemption for countries with high ambient temperatures is one possible way to address this concern.”

“Success with the HFC amendment will provide momentum for the UN climate negotiations in Paris in December, and will provide a significant down payment on the mitigation needed to keep the climate safe,” Zaelke added.

IGSD’s Primer on HFCs is here.

Fast success will bring momentum for Paris climate agreement and beyond

9 July 2015 – Fast cuts to short-lived climate pollutants will provide both short-term climate mitigation as well as the political confidence necessary for a broader international climate deal in Paris in December, according to a Nature Climate Change commentary to be published 13 July.

Short-lived climate pollutants include black carbon, hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), and methane, the main component of smog, or ground level ozone.  “Unlike long-lived CO2 emissions which remain in the atmosphere for hundreds to thousands of years, short-lived pollutants remain in the atmosphere for just days to a few decades, and cutting them will reduce the rate of warming within a decade,” said co-author Veerabhadran Ramanthan, a distinguished professor of climate and atmospheric sciences at Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego, and UNESCO Professor of Climate and Policy, TERI University, Delhi, India.

“The fresh scientific insights about short-lived climate pollutants are opening up a new political front in the battle to mitigate climate change,” said lead author David Victor, a professor at UC San Diego.

“Technologies exist today to reduce up to 30 percent of methane, 75 percent of black carbon, and nearly 100 percent of potent HFCs” said co-author Durwood Zaelke, President of the Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development.  “This would avoid up to 0.6°C (1.1° F) of warming by mid-century, in addition to slowing sea-level rise (see Figure), the melting of glaciers, and the retreat of the Arctic ice cap,” said Ramanathan.

“Reductions of these short-pollutants will have a huge impact on local ravages of air pollutants, which already kills seven million people every year and degrades more than a hundred million tons of crops,” said Victor. “These are not hypothetical cuts. California has already done this and has a blueprint for the world.”

“The climate impact of HFCs can be cut nearly 100 percent under the Montreal Protocol, which is widely acknowledge as the world’s most successful environmental treaty for its success putting the stratospheric ozone layer on the path to recovery as well as for providing significant climate mitigation,” said Zaelke.  “A total of 90 parties to the Montreal Protocol—rich countries and poor, big countries and small – have submitted formal proposals to phase down HFC production and consumption under the Montreal Protocol. This coalition calling for mandatory mitigation is unique in climate politics.”

Those submitting formal proposals include the island collation lead by the Federated States of Micronesia, the first country to propose cutting HFCs, as well as the U.S., Canada, and Mexico, the EU-28, the Africa Group of 55 countries, and India.

“The amendment could pass as early as November this year, although opposition remains from the Gulf States”, Zaelke said.

“Slowing climate change requires fast action on additional fronts beyond the U.N. climate process,” said Victor. “Near-term progress is more likely to occur when using a portfolio of decentralized strategies that work on many different fronts.  Action on short-lived climate pollutants will raise the odds that this time, the world will develop the confidence to get serious on climate action.”

The Climate and Clean Air Coalition to Reduce Short-Lived Climate Pollutants (CCAC) currently supports government and NGO representatives working to reduce black carbon from cooking stoves, brick kilns and diesel vehicles, as well as methane, and HFC reductions. The CCAC recently released a guidance note on short-lived climate pollutant mitigation strategies to aid countries in developing their intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) leading up to Paris.  Mexico, the U.S., and most recently China, have released INDCs that include short-lived climate pollutants, and Chile has indicated it will follow suit.

Figure 1

Figure. At 2100, aggressive mitigation of long-lived CO2 and short-lived climate pollutants can reduce sea levels by 35cm from the projected sea-level rise of 112 cm under business-as-usual. The pie chart shows percentage contribution of each pollutant. 

The Nature Climate Change commentary is here.

IGSD’s Primer on HFCs is here.

IGSD’s Primer on Short-Lived Climate Pollutants is here.

HFC reduction one of 10 key actions for climate protection economic growth

7 July 2015 – Phasing down hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) under the Montreal Protocol is one of the top ten strategies for keeping the climate from warming less than 2°C above pre-industrial levels while also promoting strong economic growth and development, according to the New Climate Economy report released today. The Global Commission on the Economy and Climate, chaired by former Mexican President Felipe Calderón and comprised of 28 global leaders drawn from 20 countries, identified 10 key actions designed to guide countries on methods to drive economic growth and development while achieving as much as 96% of the greenhouse emissions reductions needed by 2030 to keep global warming under 2°C.  In the final report the commission recommended that “the Parities to the Montreal Protocol approve an amendment to phase down the production and the use of HFCs.”

“An HFC phasedown under the Montreal Protocol this year could avoid the equivalent of 100 (87-146) billion tonnes of carbon dioxide by mid-century, and avoid up to 0.5°C of warming by the end of the century,” said Durwood Zaelke, President of the Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development. “Through a fast implementation of the HFC amendment an additional 39 to 64 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent could be mitigated. Further mitigation would come from efficiency gains in room air conditioners catalyzed by the phase down of the refrigerants.” According to the Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, the climate benefit from improving the efficiency of room air conditioners could save enough electricity to avoid building up to 1,900 medium-sized power plants in the next 15 years.

The New Climate Economy report also recognized energy efficiency measures as another key action to drive growth and reduce emissions, stating “energy efficiency investments could boost cumulative economy output by US $18 trillion by 2035, increasing growth by 0.25-1.1% per year.”

Support for and HFC amendment is growing rapidly.  Last week President Obama and President Rousseff of Brazil agreed to “consider promptly amendment proposals to phase down HFCs.” This follows the agreements President Obama personally negotiated with President Xi of China and with Prime Minister Modi of India to phase down HFCs under the Montreal Protocol.

To date, proposals have been submitted to phase down HFCs by 90 countries, including by India; the U.S., Canada and Mexico; the EU-28; eight pacific Island states led by the Federated States of Micronesia and the Philippines; and the 55 countries of the Africa Group have become one of the most forceful champions of the HFC amendment. The next round of negotiations under the Montreal Protocol are scheduled for later this month in Paris.

The New Climate Economy report is here.

IGSD’s Primer on HFCs is here.

Washington, DC, 2 July 2015 – The United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) took strong action today to ban and otherwise restrict the use of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) used in refrigeration, air conditioning, and foam and aerosol products.  The EPA rule declares as “unacceptable” various HFCs and HFC-containing blends when used in applications where superior substitutes are now available, with lower overall risk to human health and the environment.

“Today’s action delivers on the President’s Climate Action Plan and the administration’s commitment to acting on climate. And it is in line with steps leading businesses are already taking to reduce and replace HFCs with safer, climate-friendly alternatives,” said EPA Administrator Gina McCarthy in EPA’s press release. “This rule will not only reduce harmful greenhouse gas emissions, but also encourage greater use and development of the next generation of safer HFC alternatives.”

“The President’s climate team is on a roll with their actions to cut HFC at home and abroad,” said Durwood Zaelke, President of the Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development. “The President’s strong actions on HFCs today, give him the credibility he needs to demand that the rest of the world phase down HFCs under the Montreal Protocol.”  The next round of negotiations under the Montreal Protocol are scheduled for late July in Paris, with the final Meeting of the Parties scheduled for the first week of November in Dubai.

“The alternatives to HFCs are remarkable.” said Dr. Stephen O. Andersen, Director of Research at IGSD. “For example, HFO-1234yf with a global warming potential that is less than one will replace the current HFC-134a that has a warming potential more than a thousand time higher.  The new substitutes are safe for the ozone layer and less damaging to climate and have lower life-time costs when the latest energy efficiency technology is applied.”

HFCs are increasing more quickly in the U.S. than any other greenhouse gas and are increasing global rate of 10-15%.  At that rate, U.S. emissions are projected to double by 2020 and triple by 2030.

An HFC phasedown under the Montreal Protocol this year could avoid the equivalent of 100 (87-146) billion tonnes of carbon dioxide by mid-century, and avoid up to 0.5°C of warming by the end of the century. Through a fast implementation of the HFC amendment an additional 39 to 64 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent could be mitigated. Further mitigation would come from efficiency gains in room air conditioners catalyzed by the phase down of the refrigerants.  According to the Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, the climate benefit from improving the efficiency of room air conditioners could save enough electricity to avoid building up to 1,900 medium-sized power plants in the next 15 years.

“Today’s action is a nice book-end to the President’s agreement on HFCs earlier this week with President Rousseff of Brazil, where the two leaders agreed to “work multilaterally in the Montreal Protocol to consider promptly amendment proposals to phase down HFCs.”  The agreement with President Rousseff follows earlier agreements the President Obama negotiated with Prime Minister Modi of India and President Xi of China to phase down HFCs under the Montreal Protocol.

“President Obama’s success bringing climate policy to the leader level gives the world a fighting chance for a decent outcome at the climate negotiations in Paris in December,” said Zaelke.

EPA’s Fact Sheet is here; IGSD’s Primer on HFCs is here.

Presidents Rousseff and Obama agree to “promptly” consider HFC amendment

Washington, DC, 30 June 2015 – President Dilma Rousseff of Brazil and President Barack Obama agreed today to work together to phase down the production and consumption of HFCs under the Montreal Protocol, stating:

“The Presidents, recognizing the importance of managing hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), agreed to work multilaterally in the Montreal Protocol to consider promptly amendment proposals to phase down HFCs.”

This follows the agreements President Obama personally negotiated with President Xi of China to phase down HFCs under the Montreal Protocol, and with Prime Minister Modi of India.

“President Obama understands that success with HFCs will be a powerful down payment on the Paris climate deal anticipated in December, and he’s made it a personal priority to finish the HFC amendment this year when the Montreal Protocol parties meet the first week of November,” said Durwood Zaelke, President of the Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development.

HFCs are used primarily as coolants in air conditioners and are currently the fastest growing climate pollutant in the world.

“A successful HFC amendment will provide the equivalent of 100 to 200 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide by mid-century, and avoid up to 0.5C of warming by end of century,” Zaelke added.  “Improvements in energy efficiency of air conditioners, which always occurs when a refrigerant is phased out under the Montreal Protocol, can provide significantly more climate mitigation.  Preliminary calculations by Lawrence Berkeley National Lab show that the efficiency gains can save enough electricity to avoid building up to 1,900 medium-size power plants in the next 15 years.”

Earlier this month under President Obama’s leadership the Group of Seven leaders promised to “continue our efforts to phase down hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and call on all Parties to the Montreal Protocol to negotiate an amendment this year to phase down HFCs and on donors to assist developing countries in its implementation.”

The next round of negotiations under the Montreal Protocol are scheduled for late July in Paris. To date, four formal proposal have been submitted to phase down HFCs: by India; the U.S., Canada and Mexico; the EU; and eight pacific Island states led by the Federated States of Micronesia and the Philippines. The Africa Group also has submitted its own draft, and become one of the most forceful champions of the HFC amendment.

“Today’s agreement brings President Rousseff into the group of leaders on the right side of history.  President Obama’s push to eliminate HFCs under the Montreal Protocol this year, joined by President Xi, Prime Minster Modi, and now President Rousseff, will deliver the biggest single piece of climate mitigation in the near term,” said Zaelke.

IGSD’s Primer on HFCs is here.

White House/EPA Report Finds Serious Risks of Inaction, Including in Reduction of Short-Lived Climate Pollutants

Washington, DC, 23 June 2015 – The U.S. must curb greenhouse gas emissions, including short-lived climate pollutants, in order to avoid “serious physical and economic risks of unmitigated climate change,” according to a report released today by the White House and the EPA.  Fast reduction of short-lived climate pollutants, which include black carbon soot particles, tropospheric ozone (also known as ground-level ozone and the principal component of smog), methane, and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs are factory-made greenhouse gases used for air conditioning and refrigeration), can cut the rate of global warming in half, and avoid 0.6°C of warming by 2050.

“[W]e can save tens of thousands of American lives, and hundreds of billions of dollars, annually in the United States by the end of this century, and the sooner we act, the better off America and future generations of Americans will be,” EPA Administrator Gina McCarthy noted in the White House press release.

The report summarizes the results of the EPA’s ongoing Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project which works to quantify the risks, impacts, and damages of inaction, and the benefits for the U.S. from global greenhouse gas mitigation. According to the results, changes in climate due to these emissions, including increased ground-level ozone, will “exacerbate existing human health stressors, such as air pollution and disease.”  A global policy to curb greenhouse gas emissions will provide significant benefits to every sector of the U.S. economy and could prevent an estimated 57,000 deaths annually from improved air quality, and avoid up to $2.5 billion in damages from flooding by 2100.

“Cutting short-lived climate pollutants can quickly avoid climate damages, including loss of crop yields, sea level rise, more powerful storm surges and other extreme weather events,” said Durwood Zaelke, President of the Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development. “Reducing near-term warming reduces the risk of setting off more powerful feedback mechanisms such as the melting of permafrost and the release of methane, which then accelerates global warming.”

Some states are already taking action on short-lived climate pollutants. Last month California, Oregon, Washington, and Vermont, along with eight other subnational government leaders, signed the “Under 2 MOU,” pledging to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 80 to 95 percent below 1990 levels by 2050 – a per capita annual emission target of less than two metric tonnes.  This action, which includes cutting short-lived climate pollutants, is an effort to keep the global average temperature below the 2°C guardrail and avoid the most dangerous impacts of climate change.

The Administration’s release of the report is expected to build further momentum for climate action both domestically and abroad.  President Obama and the other leaders of the G7 pushed for action on HFCs earlier this month, calling for “continued efforts to phase down HFCs and calling on all Parties to the Montreal Protocol to negotiate an amendment this year to phase down HFCs.” The Montreal Protocol has already successfully phased out nearly 100 similar ozone depleting chemicals, avoiding the equivalent of an estimated 9.5 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions per year.

“In the lead up to the UN climate negotiations at the end of the year, President Obama and other leaders should factor in the ability of short-lived climate pollutants to reduce near-term climate impacts. Reducing these pollutants can quickly cut the rate of global warming in half, and will avoid up to 1.5°C warming by the end of the century, comparable to the 1.1°C that cutting CO2 can avoid,” added Zaelke.

IGSD’s Primer on SLCPs is here.

IGSD’s Primer on HFCs is here.