IGSD Publications
2023
Enhanced Rock Weathering in the Global South: Exploring Potential for Enhanced Agricultural Productivity and Carbon dioxide Drawdown
IGSD & Precision Development (PxD) – 2023
Summary
PxD and IGSD are partnering on an initiative to collaboratively identify opportunities for innovation in climate change mitigation, particularly for the greenhouse gases most problematic in agricultural production, methane and nitrous oxide, as well as carbon dioxide. This initiative includes four analytical pieces on the opportunities for climate change mitigation by smallholder famers, starting with carbon dioxide sequestration through enhanced rock weathering. Enhanced rock, or silicate, weathering (ERW) is a developing technology which leverages natural mineral weathering to draw carbon from the atmosphere.
The analysis found ERW’s potential for permanent carbon drawdown and agricultural co-benefits makes it an attractive mitigation strategy, particularly in equator and near-equator geographies like the Global South, where there are ideal soil pH, temperature, and moisture conditions for the technology. However, because ERW is a new technology that is still being tested and has yet to be studied in Global South contexts, there remain critical uncertainties around its safety, carbon sequestration potential, probable benefits to farmers, and feasibility. All of these factors must be addressed in order to move the technology forward.
2022
The 90 Billion ton Opportunity
IGSD, IEA, NRDC – 2022
Summary
Today, built into each cooling appliance and insulating foam in nearly every household, building, and car in America and across most of the world, there sits a type of fluorinated gas called a hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC) and/or a hydrofluorocarbon (HFC). When leaked out into the atmosphere, HCFCs cause the depletion of Earth’s ozone layer and both HCFCs and HFCs are extremely potent climate warmers.
There is a huge opportunity for chemical producers, equipment manufacturers, federal and state policymakers, major corporations, and maintenance professionals to come together to prevent as many of these potent chemicals as possible from making it into the atmosphere. This report makes a first attempt at laying out the starting point for an approach, referred to here as Lifecycle Refrigerant Management (LRM). LRM focuses on avoiding and reducing refrigerant leaks, promoting refrigerant recovery, and increasing reclamation rates to mitigate unnecessary refrigerant use and emissions.
Setting the Stage for Climate Action Under the Montreal Protocol
S. O. Andersen, M. Gonzalez & N. Sherman – 2022
Summary
This evaluation identifies the 12 papers that formed the scientific foundation for the Montreal Protocol parties to take bold steps to phase down HFCs via the Kigali Amendment. These thoroughly researched and clearly presented scientific papers, which were among those contributing to SAP presentations at Meetings of the Parties and were directly read and considered by treaty negotiators from party countries, made the link between HFCs and climate change apparent and persuaded skeptics and stakeholders to take action. All told, the coauthors of these dozen papers include about 40 scientists from 10 countries, reflecting the substantial degree of international attention to the problems posed by HFCs and scientific collaboration to address them.
Speeding Ghana’s Transition to Low-GWP and Energy-Efficient Cooling
K. A. Agyarko, E. Osea-Quansah, H. Zan, R. Ferris, M. R. Derder & L. O. Bosire- 2022
Summary
This paper describes how the Ghana Energy Commission and the Environmental Protection Agency’s National Ozone Unit have joined forces in a comprehensive strategy to access and implement low-global warming potential (GWP) and energy-efficient cooling technologies that protect the Earth’s climate and stratospheric ozone layer. This strategy, in line with the objectives of the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer (Montreal Protocol): 1) integrates upgraded energy efficiency labels with refrigerant metrics; 2) strengthens minimum energy performance standards (MEPS); 3) prohibits the dumping of used cooling appliances; 4) uses the OzonAction informal Prior Informed Consent (iPIC) mechanism to facilitate communications among national authorities on the import and sale of appliances containing or using obsolete refrigerants scheduled for phase out or phase down under the Montreal Protocol; and 6) asks Parties to the Montreal Protocol to enact and enforce regulations that help stop the dumping of used and new cooling equipment in export-market countries wanting to leapfrog obsolete appliances that waste energy and force climate change.
Scenarios for future Indian HFC demand compared to the Kigali Amendment
A. Hillbrand, P. Madan, M. Singh, M. McNamara, S. O. Andersen, A. Mathur, R. Shende & A. Jaiswal- 2022
Summary
Demand for hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) refrigerants used as substitutes for ozone-depleting substances is growing in India and is estimated to continue growing at a high rate through the middle of this century. HFCs, although not directly ozone-depleting, are highly potent greenhouse gases subject to a global phasedown under the 2016 Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer. As of 20 January 2022, 130 Parties have ratified the Kigali Amendment, including India. This analysis evaluates scenarios for India’s HFC demand trajectory compared to likely control obligations under the Kigali Amendment. It is based on current and projected markets for HFC-using equipment and types of refrigerants utilized now and likely to be used in the future. Sectors considered in this work include mobile air conditioning, stationary air conditioning, refrigeration, and foam blowing agents. Results suggest that India’s annual HFC demand under current market trends could reach 76 MMT CO2-equivalent (CO2e) in 2030 and 197 MMT CO2e in 2050, from 23 MMT CO2e in 2020, making no changes to the current mix of HFCs in use. The Kigali Amendment requires for compliance that India freeze its HFC consumption in 2028 at a projected level of 59–65 MMT CO2e and phase down progressively over the following 29 years; in that case, annual Indian HFC demand would peak in 2030 at a projected 57 MMT CO2e and fall to 8 MMT CO2e by 2050. This trajectory would avoid cumulative HFC use of 2.2 GT CO2e through 2050 versus the current market trends. If actions are taken to accelerate the refrigerant transition in stationary air conditioning by five years, India could peak its annual HFC demand by 2028 at 40 MMT CO2e and avoid additional cumulative HFC demand of 337 MMT CO2e between 2025 and 2050, exceeding its obligations under the Kigali Amendment.
Fast action on short-lived climate pollutants and nature-based solutions to help countries meet carbon neutrality goals
X. Sun, P. Wang, R. Ferris, H. Lin, G. Dreyfus, B. Gu, D. Zaelke, & Y. Wang – 2022
Summary
Scientific studies show that fast actions to reduce near-term warming are essential to slowing self-reinforcing climate feedbacks and avoiding irreversible tipping points. Yet cutting CO2 emissions only marginally impacts near-term warming. This study identifies two of the most effective mitigation strategies to limit near-term warming beyond CO2 mitigation, namely reducing short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) and promoting targeted nature-based solutions (NbS), and comprehensively reviews the latest scientific progress in these fields. Studies show that quickly reducing SLCP emissions, particularly hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), methane, and black carbon, from all relevant sectors can avoid up to 0.6 °C of warming by 2050. Additionally, promoting targeted NbS that protect and enhance natural carbon sinks, including in forests, wetlands, grasslands, and agricultural lands, can avoid emissions of 23.8 Gt of CO2e per year in 2030, without jeopardizing food security and biodiversity. Based on the scientific evidence, we provided a series of policy recommendations on SLCPs and NbS, including: 1) implementing the Kigali Amendment to reduce HFC emissions; 2) deploying cost-effective, sector-based measures to reduce methane and black carbon emissions; and 3) implementing targeted NbS to protect and enhance existing carbon sinks and shifting away from forest-burning bioenergy. These fast-acting strategies on SLCPs and NbS will play a key role in securing the most avoided warming in the near-term and help countries meet their mid-century carbon neutrality goals. Finally, we proposed future research topics, including: improving measurement and monitoring systems and techniques for SLCP emissions; developing and improving assessments of marginal abatement costs for SLCP mitigation in different sectors; better quantifying the avoided warming potential from protecting different types of natural carbon sinks by 2030, 2050, and over longer periods; and identifying whether there are any biomass types for energy sources that are consistent with the United Nations Environment Assembly’s 2022 resolution adopting a definition of NbS. Further research in these areas could help address barriers to adoption and assist countries with better integrating the most effective SLCP and NbS strategies into their climate policies.
Mitigating climate disruption in time: A self-consistent approach for avoiding both near-term and long-term global warming
G. Dreyfus, Y. Xu, D. Shindell, D. Zaelke, & V. Ramanathan – 2022
Summary
The ongoing and projected impacts from human-induced climate change highlight the need for mitigation approaches to limit warming in both the near term (<2050) and the long term (>2050). We clarify the role of non-CO2 greenhouse gases and aerosols in the context of near-term and long-term climate mitigation, as well as the net effect of decarbonization strategies targeting fossil fuel (FF) phaseout by 2050. Relying on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change radiative forcing, we show that the net historical (2019 to 1750) radiative forcing effect of CO2 and non-CO2 climate forcers emitted by FF sources plus the CO2 emitted by land-use changes is comparable to the net from non-CO2 climate forcers emitted by non-FF sources. We find that mitigation measures that target only decarbonization are essential for strong long-term cooling but can result in weak near-term warming (due to unmasking the cooling effect of coemitted aerosols) and lead to temperatures exceeding 2 °C before 2050. In contrast, pairing decarbonization with additional mitigation measures targeting short-lived climate pollutants and N2O, slows the rate of warming a decade or two earlier than decarbonization alone and avoids the 2 °C threshold altogether. These non-CO2 targeted measures when combined with decarbonization can provide net cooling by 2030 and reduce the rate of warming from 2030 to 2050 by about 50%, roughly half of which comes from methane, significantly larger than decarbonization alone over this time frame. Our analysis demonstrates the need for a comprehensive CO2 and targeted non-CO2 mitigation approach to address both the near-term and long-term impacts of climate disruption.
The Importance of Stopping Environmental Dumping in Ghana: The Case of Inefficient New and Used Cooling Appliances with Obsolete Refrigerants
A. Agyarko, S. O. Andersen, R. Ferris, H. Zan, E. Osae-Quansah, G. Dreyfus, M. R. Derder, L. O. Bosire, L. Bloomer, & X. Sun – 2022
Summary
Environmentally harmful product dumping (“environmental dumping”) of new and used low-efficiency cooling appliances with obsolete ozone-depleting and greenhouse gas refrigerants in African countries impoverishes communities, hinders economic development, threatens ecological systems, and harms public health. The use of lowefficiency cooling appliances increases energy demand, leading to higher power plant emissions and limiting affordable energy access in African countries. These low-efficiency appliances and products contain ozone-depleting refrigerants with high global-warming potential (GWP) or ozone-safe refrigerants with high GWP. Environmental dumping of these appliances and products makes it more difficult for countries to meet their international climate obligations and for the world to meet the Paris Agreement’s climate change mitigation targets. Ghana faces high levels of environmental dumping, despite a national ban on importing used cooling appliances and established efficiency standards for new air conditioners and refrigerators. Through the Energy Commission’s Office of Renewable Energy, Energy Efficiency, & Climate Change (REEECC), the government of Ghana is partnering with the Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development (IGSD) to stop environmental dumping. This article provides a list of interventions that can be implemented by Ghana, by governments in countries that export to Ghana, and by industry and other stakeholders. Notably, these actions focus on the shared responsibility of exporting countries and manufacturers by calling on exporting countries to update and enhance enforcement of their laws, and on global manufacturers to stop exporting inefficient products with obsolete refrigerants to Ghana and other African countries.
A Call to Stop Burning Forests in the Name of Climate Mitigation
L. Bloomer, X. Sun, G. Dreyfus, R. Ferris, D. Zaelke & C. Schiff – 2022
Summary
Burning trees for energy delivers a one-two punch against climate change mitigation efforts. Harvesting woody biomass reduces the sequestration potential of forest carbon sinks, while the combustion of woody biomass releases large quantities of carbon into the air. Forest regrowth may not offset these emissions for many decades —well beyond the time the world has left to slow warming to avoid catastrophic impacts from climate change. With little time left to achieve a sustainable and inclusive future, burning forests for energy contributes to warming in the near-term and is not a viable climate solution
This article begins with an overview of the scientific background of why harvesting and burning forests for energy is not a viable solution to climate change or related challenges. This background section includes an explanation of key terminology used in the article. The next section presents the European Union (EU)’s Renewable Energy Directive as a case study on the consequences of including bioenergy in renewable energy policies. Following the case study, the article examines bioenergy policies in the United States and China—the world’s two largest greenhouse gas emitters. The article concludes with policy recommendations to focus government action towards reducing reliance on energy from forest biomass. These recommendations are that governments: (1) re-evaluate their bioenergy policies and ensure lifecycle accounting of forest bioenergy’s climate emissions associated with harvesting and burning forest biomass; (2) end incentives for harvesting forests for fuel and invest in forest preservation, low-emission energy, and low energy demand pathways; and (3) advance international consensus on the harms from forest bioenergy, specifically the impact on climate and biodiversity.
2021
Glasgow Climate Summit: COP26
D. B. Hunter, J. E. Salzman, & D. Zaelke- 2021
Summary
This chapter provides open-access teaching materials for COP 26 — the Glasgow Climate Summit — held in November 2021. It was written as a supplement to the 6th edition of the casebook, International Environmental Law and Policy, but can be used as a stand-alone assignment for any environmental law course. It contains separate sections on Finishing Paris, NDC Commitments, The Glasgow Climate Pact, Working Toward a Just Transition, Sectoral Commitments Outside NDCs, and Non-State Commitments, followed by a Questions and Discussion section.
Status of Patents and Legal Challenges: Patents Related to the Use of HFO-1234yf in Auto Air Conditioning
K. N. Taddonio, X. Sun, R. Ferris, & S. O. Andersen – 2021
Summary
This paper addresses what has been described as a primary concern related to patents: even if chemical companies in Montreal Protocol Article 5 Parties can develop their own methods of producing low-GWP refrigerant hydrofluoroolefin (HFO) or using them in the products they make, they could be prevented (absent a license) from selling their products at home and in key markets abroad in countries where restrictive patents have been granted to other companies, at least until the time when challenges to patents are decided or these patents expire.
This paper reviews the status of patents granted on HFO-1234yf in automotive air conditioning (AC) in the US, Europe, and China, covering the largest automotive manufacturing regions in the world. This paper primarily focuses on patents on the use of HFO-1234yf in automobiles, as opposed to patents on the manufacture of HFO-1234yf. There are multiple manufacturing pathways for HFO-1234yf which may be reviewed in a future paper. In the US and Europe, most patents on the use of HFO-1234yf in automobile AC systems were invalidated following legal challenge. However, this has not prevented the same chemical manufacturers from gaining or maintaining similar IPR in China, where some of the patents have yet to be challenged or overturned. This raises both legal and diplomatic questions about the validity of such patents and the environmental, financial, and trade-related benefits that could be realized if legal barriers to unrestricted use were removed.
This paper updates and expands upon a preceding publication co-authored by Stephen Seidel of the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions and Christine R. Ethridge of Eckert Seamans Cherin & Mellott LLC, published in July 2016 and titled “Status of Legal Challenges: Patents Related to the Use of HFO-1234yf in Auto Air Conditioning”.
Narrowing feedstock exemptions under the Montreal Protocol has multiple environmental benefits
S. O. Andersen, S. Gao, S. Carvalho, R. Ferris, M. Gonzalez, N. J. Sherman, Y. Wei, & D. Zaelke – 2021
Summary
The Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer (Montreal Protocol) can be further strengthened to control ozone-depleting substances and hydrofluorocarbons used as feedstocks to provide additional protection of the stratospheric ozone layer and the climate system while also mitigating plastics pollution. The feedstock exemptions were premised on the assumption that feedstocks presented an insignificant threat to the environment; experience has shown that this is incorrect. Through its adjustment procedures, the Montreal Protocol can narrow the scope of feedstock exemptions to reduce inadvertent and unauthorized emissions while continuing to exempt production of feedstocks for time-limited, essential uses. This upstream approach can be an effective and efficient complement to other efforts to reduce plastic pollution. Existing mechanisms in the Montreal Protocol such as the Assessment Panels and national implementation strategies can guide the choice of environmentally superior substitutes for feedstock-derived plastics. This paper provides a framework for policy makers, industries, and civil society to consider how stronger actions under the Montreal Protocol can complement other chemical and environmental treaties.
An Opportunity that Should Not be Missed: Applying Chinese Policy that Promotes Efficient Air Conditioning to Countries that Need It
X. Sun., H. Yan, S. Wang, & R. Ferris – 2021
Summary
As the world warms, the growing use of air conditioners (“ACs”) and other cooling equipment becomes essential for human comfort and public health. In addition, cooling-equipment energy and refrigerant consumption also presents tremendous climate mitigation opportunities. This article highlights China’s “Same Line, Same Standard and Same Quality” policy (“Same-Line Policy” or “Policy”), intended to support economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and address the export challenges that have negatively affected Chinese industries and products on the global market. The Policy encourages manufacturers of consumer and industrial products to sell products within China that were produced for markets outside China according to standards exceeding those for products produced for the Chinese market. The Policy, and the associated information and business platforms that the government established to ensure policy success, aim to improve the domestic economic situation through consumption of products previously destined for export markets but which are not being sold because of the economic downturn during the pandemic. Policies like these, representing a course of action that China’s leadership endorses, can drive changes in Chinese law, including changes that address loopholes in the law that allow environmentally harmful activities to continue. The Same-Line Policy provides an opportunity for global climate mitigation, public health, and other benefits that should not be missed.
The Precautionary Principle and the Environment: A Case Study of an Immediate Global Response to the Molina and Rowland Warning
K. Willi, A. R. Ravishankara, G. J. M. Velders, J. S. Daniel, M. McFarland, & S. O. Andersen – 2021
Summary
In 1974, Mario J. Molina and F. Sherwood Rowland warned that chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) could destroy the stratospheric ozone layer, which protects Earth against the harmful effects of ultraviolet radiation [Molina and Rowland Nature 1974, 249, 810]. In 1975, Ramanathan warned that CFCs are powerful greenhouse gases (GHGs) and would rival carbon dioxide (CO2) in causing climate change if left unabated [Ramanathan Science 1975, 190, 50]. The 1987 Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer (Protocol), arguably the most successful global environmental treaty in history, was enacted in response to these warnings. This Protocol has phased out almost 99% of the production and consumption of ozone depleting substances (ODSs). Other papers have explored the “world avoided” by actions under the Protocol [Prather et al. Nature 1996, 381, 551; Newman et al. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 2009, 9, 2113; Morgenstern et al. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2008, 35, 1]. They concluded that the ozone layer would have been highly depleted across the globe by the mid-21st century without the Protocol and that the Protocol contributed significantly to reduce climate change. This paper explores what could have been achieved if the world had acted against the continued use of ODSs, which were both ozone-depleting and greenhouse gases, immediately after Molina and Rowland warned of stratospheric ozone depletion and Ramanathan warned of climate forcing using chemicals and technology that were already globally available in the mid-1970s. We show that such “precautionary principle” actions would have reduced global ozone layer depletion, reduced the extent of the ozone hole, brought forward the dates for ozone layer recovery, and helped minimize climate change.
A comprehensive review of life cycle climate performance (LCCP) for air conditioning systems
H. Wan, T. Cao, Y. Hwang, R. Radermacher, S. O. Andersen, & S. Chin – 2021
Summary
Life Cycle Climate Performance (LCCP) is a widely accepted metric to evaluate the carbon footprint of air conditioning (AC) systems “from cradle to grave.” This paper: (1) reviews the invention and evolution of LCCP, including a comprehensive timeline and bibliography; (2) documents the successful application of LCCP in the replacement of HFC-410A with HFC-32 in room air conditioners; (3) compares the conceptual frameworks and the operational approaches; and 4) reflects on the drawbacks of current LCCP research and points out possible future work.
The major policy-relevant findings are: 1. The indirect emissions caused by energy consumption is 70 to 80 percent of the LCCP of AC systems in most countries but will decline in importance as electric power supply shifts rapidly from fossil fuel to renewable energy sources, which have near-zero carbon intensity; 2. The embodied greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in refrigerant manufacture are, in most cases, negligible but the physical and chemical properties are crucial for system optimization for low carbon footprint; 3. The LCCP metric can be used for multiple purposes such as refrigerant selection and AC system architecture optimization; and 4. Data limitations in material manufacturing and the carbon intensity of electric power are the most significant challenges. Finally, this paper describes a variety of methods to fill in data gaps, including the correction factor method, the data-driven method, and the database searching method. The next-generation LCCP will be an enhanced evaluation process considering local climate, heat islands, and local power supply characteristics.
Indicative Saving of Up To 70% with Inverter R-32 Replacement Room ACs at The Bank of Africa
AMEE, IGSD & CEEE – 2021
Summary
In 2019, the Government of Morocco with industry and non-governmental partners organized the Morocco Banker’s Air Conditioner Buyers Club with an ambition to gain access at a competitive and affordable cost to room air conditioners (RACs) with high-efficiency and low global warming potential (GWP) refrigerants as mandated globally by the Montreal Protocol. In 2020 the Government of Morocco and the Morocco Banker’s AC Buyers Club have decided to replace older RACs with next-generation technology using more climate-friendly refrigerants. This report provides the indicative finding that the RAC replacement program planned by the Government of Morocco and partners will reduce power consumption by up to 70% with additional economic and climate benefits from the recovery and destruction in local cement kilns of obsolete HCFC and HFC GHG refrigerants.
Investing in US Energy Efficiency and Infrastructure Creates More Nationally-Distributed Jobs while Saving Money and Protecting the Climate
Economic and Human Dimensions Research Associates (EHDRA) & IGSD – 2021
Summary
This paper explains in detail how investing in energy efficiency increases net employment, including as a result of the money saved by energy efficiency improvements being spent locally in support of household and community development. This higher efficiency also allows a sustained improvement in the quality of life with cleaner air, better health, less damage from climate change, and less spent on health care and recovery from climate disasters. Low income and otherwise disadvantaged communities in areas despoiled by fossil fuel extraction and combustion for energy and industry all benefit from clean renewable energy (solar, wind, hydroelectric, geothermal) and more affordable appliance operating costs.
2020
Procurement Recommendations for Climate Friendly Refrigerants
SPLC & IGSD – 2020
Summary
This analysis explains in detail how investing in energy efficiency increases net employment, including as a result of the money saved by energy efficiency improvements being spent locally in support of household and community development. This higher efficiency also allows a sustained improvement in the quality of life with cleaner air, better health, less damage from climate change, and less spent on health care and recovery from climate disasters. Low income and otherwise disadvantaged communities in areas despoiled by fossil fuel extraction and combustion for energy and industry all benefit from clean renewable energy (solar, wind, hydroelectric, geothermal) and more affordable appliance operating costs. The authors present new and more comprehensive estimates of the likely direct, indirect, and induced jobs, health, and climate benefits of public and private investment in energy efficiency and infrastructure upgrades required to recover from the COrona Virus Disease (COVID)-19 recession and to strengthen United States (US) global competitiveness and full employment with new jobs distributed nationally over a wide range of job skills and wage rates in growth industries with high upward mobility.
Environmentally Harmful Dumping of Inefficient and Obsolete Air Conditioners in Africa
CLASP & IGSD – 2020
Summary
The demand for air conditioners that provide thermal comfort is steadily growing across the African continent as consumers seek to improve their quality of life in the face of urbanization and rising global temperatures. Since 2016, Africa’s market for new split room air conditioners has grown by approximately 5%, annually. As manufacturing and industrialized economies place increasingly stringent standards on room ACs sold domestically, while allowing continued export of technology that cannot legally be sold in the country of export as a consequence of failure to meet environmental, safety, energy efficiency, or other product standards, importing countries risk becoming dumping grounds for inefficient, environmentally harmful products using obsolete refrigerants. Weak or non-existent energy performance standards and the lack of proactive anti-environmental dumping policies in many African countries have facilitated environmentally harmful dumping of inefficient, high-global warming potential cooling products into African markets.
This report details the extent of the problem across ten countries in North, West, East, and Southern Africa, ultimately providing policymakers with a set of solutions to encourage a transition toward highly-efficient, sustainable cooling technologies.
Community Benefits of Local Spending of Money Saved with Super-Efficient Air Conditioning Including New Local Employment
S. O. Andersen, S. Sebti, M. Tahri-Joutei, J. Benhamdane, Y. Hwang, K. Taddonio, & J. A. Laitner– 2020
Summary
This paper presents a pioneering benefit assessment framework and indicative quantification of the community and national benefits of operating cost savings from super-efficient room air conditioning (RAC) that are spent locally and not for imported fuel, electricity, and power plants. It also estimates the benefits of expanded employment to replace and service the new RACs and to recover and destroy obsolete and contaminated ozone-depleting and greenhouse gas (GHG) refrigerants. Shifting spending from foreign to local purchase improves balance of trade, strengthens domestic currency, and creates jobs and prosperity as funds circulate in the local economy. Added to that are the community benefits of mass replacement of RACs and their service to maintain energy efficiency over the life of the appliance. This community impact grows over time as savings accumulate on avoided fuel and energy infrastructure and as the income from the new jobs circulates in the local economy.
Based on this comprehensive assessment framework, the authors recommend fast action on replacing older RACs in Morocco that were inefficient when purchased, improperly installed, and badly maintained for maximum energy efficiency. The recommended comprehensive approach will use bulk purchase for affordable cost and will recover and recycle the ozone-depleting GHGs in local cement kilns. The savings on electricity will be spent locally and recirculated through the Moroccan economy.
Chinese policy leadership would cool global air conditioning impacts: Looking east
A. Phadke, N. Shah, J. Lin, W. YoungPark, Y. Zhang, D. Zaelke, C. Ding, & N. Karali- 2020
Summary
The International Energy Agency expects the global stock of room air conditioners (RACs) to triple between today and 2050, with critical implications for energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. Because China produces approximately 70% of the world’s RACs, it is in a unique position to lead a global transition to higher-efficiency RACs with substantially lower environmental impact. To date, however, Chinese policies have targeted relatively modest RAC efficiency increases. We recommend that China target production of RACs that use low global warming potential (GWP) refrigerants and are at least as efficient as the most efficient RACs produced today in China or on the global market. Specifically, we recommend that China set minimum energy performance standards for RACs at China annual performance factor (APF) 5.4 in 2025 and China APF 6.9 in 2030. This leadership would provide a longer-term policy signal to RAC manufacturers in China, enabling them to meet the efficiency targets cost-effectively by providing adequate time for investment planning. We project that full implementation of our recommended policy could result in global electricity consumption savings of 74 petawatt-hours, CO2 reductions of 49 billion metric tons, and bill savings of 6 trillion U.S. dollars (cumulative benefits 2020–2050). The policy is viable in China because of its provision of long-term certainty for manufacturers and their demonstrated ability to produce low-GWP RACs with the required efficiencies. Exploiting the parallel transition away from high-GWP refrigerants under the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol would provide manufacturing efficiencies and substantial savings opportunities.
Well Under 2 °C: Ten Solutions for Carbon Neutrality and Climate Stability
V. Ramanathan, M. Molina, D. Zaelke & N. Borgford-Parnell – 2020
Summary
Chapter 25 in Health of People, Health of Planet and Our Responsibility: Climate Change, Air Pollution and Health (Al-Delaimy, W. K., Ramanathan, & V., Sorondo, M. S. eds). Springer, Cham. Pages 321-331.
Climate change is becoming an existential threat with warming in excess of 2 °C within the next three decades and 4–6 °C within the next several decades. Warming of such magnitudes will expose as many as 75% of the world’s population to deadly heat stress in addition to disrupting the climate and weather worldwide. Climate change is an urgent problem requiring urgent solutions. This chapter lays out urgent and practical solutions that are ready for implementation now, will deliver benefits in the next few critical decades, and place the world on a path to achieving the long-term targets of the Paris Agreement. The approach consists of four building blocks and three levers to implement ten scalable solutions described in this chapter. These solutions will enable society to decarbonize the global energy system by 2050 through efficiency and renewables, drastically reduce short-lived climate pollutants, and stabilize the warming well below 2 °C both in the near term (before 2050) and in the long term (after 2050). The solutions include an atmospheric carbon extraction lever to remove CO2 from the air. The amount of CO2 that must be removed ranges from negligible (if the emissions of CO2 from the energy system and short-lived climate pollutants have started to decrease by 2020 and carbon neutrality is achieved by 2050) to a staggering one trillion tons (if the carbon lever is not pulled and emissions of climate pollutants continue to increase until 2030).
Assessment of Climate and Development Benefits of Efficient and Climate-Friendly Cooling
G. Dreyfus, N. Borgford-Parnell, J. Christensen, D. W. Fahey, B. Motherway, T. Peters, R. Picolotti, N. Shah, & Y. Xu – 2020
Summary
The global phasedown of hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) refrigerants under the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol will make a crucial contribution to slowing climate change and meeting the goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement. An even faster phasedown could be achieved with a more extensive replacement of high-GWP HFCs with commercially available low-GWP alternatives in refrigeration and air conditioning equipment. Climate emissions also can be reduced by collecting HFCs at the end of the useful life of cooling equipment and either recycling or destroying them. Such strategies could avoid up to 0.5°C of warming by 2100.
The Moroccan Perspective on the Importance of High Energy Efficiency During the Refrigerant Transition
S. O. Andersen, A. Chakour, M. Ghazali, S. Mouline, & S. Sebti – 2020
Summary
This paper explains how Moroccan government authorities are cooperating with international organizations in finding the way forward with a combination of more stringent Minimum Energy Performance Standards (MEPS), private and public AC Buyers Clubs, and economic incentives such as import duties that favour efficiency and caps the global warming potential (GWP) of refrigerants used in imported room ACs. The Morocco AC Buyers Club will use comprehensive calculations of the carbon footprint and economic impact of room ACs tailored to local Moroccan climate and use conditions.
2019
High Tide Tax: The price to protect Coastal Communities from Rising Seas
The Center for Climate Integrity – 2019
Summary
The United States faces more than $400 billion in costs over the next 20 years, much of it sooner, to defend coastal communities from inevitable sea-level rise. These costs reflect the bare minimum coastal defenses that communities need to build to hold back rising seas and prevent chronic flooding and inundation. More than 130 counties face at least $1 billion in costs, and 14 states will see expenses of $10 billion or greater between now and 2040. The question is, will taxpayers be on the hook for all the costs of climate adaptation, or will polluters be forced to pay their fair share?
Bending the Curve: Climate Change Solutions
Chapter 15: Technologies for Super Pollutant Mitigation
V. Ramanathan, D. Zaelke & J. Cole – 2019
Summary
The chapter explore a complementary climate solution to CO2 reductions: reducing a key group of warming agents knows as super pollutants or short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) to bend the warming curve quickly (over a few decades) while we pursue CO2 mitigation to bend the curve in the long term (over several decades to centuries). Combined, these efforts, if enacted by 2020, give us a significant chance (about 90% probability) of keeping warming well below 2°C (aiming for 1.5°C) in this century and beyond. Mitigation of SLCPs, if completed by 2030, can bend the warming curve by up to 0.6°C by 2050 (about 0.4°C from methane mitigation, 0.1°C from black carbon, and 0.1°C from HFCs), cutting the rate of projected warming by about half compared with “business as usual” and reducing the projected sea level rise between 2020 and 2050 by 20%.
Mobile Air Conditioning: The Life-Cycle and Greenhouse- Gas Benefits of Switching to Alternative Refrigerants and Improving System Efficiencies
ICCT & IGSD – 2019
Summary
Mobile air conditioning (MAC) systems are a significant source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from vehicles. This study, conducted by the International Council on Clean Transportation in partnership with IGSD, examines the GHG benefits and costs of switching to improved refrigerants and more efficient AC systems. This research is intended to support implementation of the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer, which requires the phase-down of HFC refrigerants and also targets improvements in energy efficiency.
2018
The Global Search and Commercialization of Alternatives and Substitutes for Ozone Depleting Substances
S. O. Andersen, N. J. Sherman, S. Carvalho, & M. Gonzalez – 2018
Summary
The Montreal Protocol has halted 99% of global production of chemical substances that deplete stratospheric ozone, which protects life on earth from the harmful effects of ultraviolet (UVB) radiation. UVB causes skin cancer and cataracts, suppresses the human immune system, destroys plastics, and damages agricultural crops and natural ecosystems. Because ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) are powerful greenhouse gases, the Montreal Protocol also protects climate. From the authors’ perspectives in multiple roles as environmental entrepreneurs, practitioners, and authorities, this paper explains how individuals, companies, and military organizations researched, developed, commercialized and implemented alternatives to ODSs that are also safer for climate. With the benefit of hindsight, the authors reflect on what was neglected or done badly under the Montreal Protocol and present lessons learned on how Montreal Protocol institutions can be renewed and revitalized to phase down hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs).
Defining the Legal and Policy Framework to Stop the Dumping of Environmentally Harmful Products
S. O. Andersen, R. Ferris, R. Picolotti, D. Zaelke, S. Carvalho & M. Gonzalez- 2018
Summary
Environmental dumping is a practice historically associated with the export of hazardous product waste from a developed country for irresponsible and often illegal disposal in a developing country. Now, with the industrialization and globalization of China and other developing countries, environmental dumping can involve both developing and developed countries as origin and destination. This dumping can be especially harmful to attempts to control under the Montreal Protocol ozone-depleting and climate-forcing chemical substances and/or products requiring unnecessarily high energy consumption. While developing country Parties to the Montreal Protocol are allowed to delay their phasedown of climate-forcing and ozone-depleting hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) during a multi-year grace period, there are advantages to earlier implementation when superior alternatives are already available at reasonable costs, as is the case for many uses of HFCs today. Thus, developing countries can benefit under the Protocol from setting controls for environmental dumping. This article aims to give policymakers, especially those in developing countries, a legal and policy “toolkit” that can be used to stop unwanted environmental dumping. It includes an examination of the history of environmental dumping, illustration of such dumping in practice, a detailed explanation and examination of the legal and policy tools, and a summary of the consequences of environmental dumping.
Life-Cycle Climate Performance Metrics and Room AC Carbon Footprint
S. O. Andersen, J. Wolf, Y. Hwang & J. Ling – 2018
Summary
The comprehensive carbon metric accounts for the fact that AC electricity use and the integrated carbon intensity of that electricity can be up to 48% higher than estimated using national “average” assumptions. Taking real-world operating conditions and the actual carbon intensity of electricity generation, transmission, and distribution at the end-use into consideration provides for a more accurate assessment of the significant climate and economic benefits from energy efficiency and power grid investment.
This article was published in ASHRAE Journal, November 2018. Copyright 2018 ASHRAE. Posted at www.ashrae.org.
The Kigali Amendment’s and China’s Critical Roles in Evolving the Montreal Protocol
X. Sun and R. Ferris – 2018
Summary
The following is a review of the continuing evolution of the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer, including the Kigali Amendment’s critical role in evolving the Montreal Protocol into a full-fledged climate treaty. Before the Kigali Amendment, the Montreal Protocol controlled about 100 ozone-depleting substances including chlorofluorocarbons and hydrochlorofluorocarbons, which are powerful greenhouse gases (GHGs), and thus the Montreal Protocol has always contributed significantly to the mitigation of climate change. The Kigali Amendment expanded the scope of the Montreal Protocol to encompass explicitly the phasedown of super GHGs, or those with very high global warming potential in the form of hydrofluorocarbons (or HFCs), although they have only a negligible impact on the ozone layer. We also discuss energy efficiency improvements to cooling equipment, which, because of the opportunity to simultaneously upgrade the energy efficiency of equipment, augments the climate change mitigation potential of the substance phasedowns and reduces related air pollutants by reducing indirect emissions from electricity generation. Phasing down HFCs has the potential to avoid up to 0.5ºC of warming by 2100. Improvements to the energy efficiency of cooling equipment could perhaps double this.
Legal Pathways to Deep Decarbonization in the United States: Summary & Key Recommendations
Chapter 34: Fluorinated Gasses
N. Borgford-Parnell, S. O. Andersen, & D. Zaelke- 2018
Summary
The chapter covers fluorinated GHGs, namely hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). The Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project reports seek to reduce HFC and hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC) emissions in the United States by 96 million metric tons (MMT) CO2 equivalent (CO2eq) by 2050. HFCs replaced chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and HCFCs that have been phased out under the Montreal Protocol on Substances That Deplete the Ozone Layer because they were depleting the stratospheric ozone layer. Due largely to their use as substitutes for CFCs and HCFCs, HFCs are the fastest growing GHGs in the United States, growing from 0.3 MMT CO2eq in 1990 to 149.4 MMT CO2eq in 2010. EPA, many states, and businesses have already begun acting to speed the phasedown of HFCs in the United States. There are a number of legal pathways at the fed- eral, state, and local levels that would further reduce emissions of HFCs and speed markets to a safe transition to environmentally friendly alternatives. Additional climate benefits can be realized by simultaneously improving the energy efficiency of equipment during the transition away from high-global warming potential (GWP) refrigerants.
Even as climate emissions push planet towards 1.5C limit, we can still avoid up to 1C of future warming- from our air conditioners
IGSD – 2018
Summary
Time is running out to reduce climate emissions enough to keep the planet from breaching the 1.5°C guardrail for relative safety, according to the IPCC’s special 1.5°C report published in October 2018. Under current trends, we will push the planet past the 1.5°C guardrail in as little as 12 years, and add 50% more warming than we are experiencing today. A strategy that combines both energy efficiency to reduce CO2 and reductions of HFC refrigerants has the potential to avoid up to 1°C of further warming.
Enhanced and Localized Life-Cycle Climate Performance (EL-LCCP) Metric for ACs
IGSD, Global Policy Associate, CEEE, & UMD – 2018
Summary
The Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol phases down the production and consumption of HFCs that were once necessary to rapidly phase out ozone depleting substances but are no longer needed because alternatives have been and will continue to be commercialized. The Kigali Amendment complements the emission controls of the UNFCCC Kyoto Protocol and contributes to satisfying the “nationally determined contributions” to reduce greenhouse gas emissions pledged under the 2016 Paris Climate Agreement. In 2016, International Institute of Refrigeration proposed using Life-Cycle Climate Performance metric for air-conditioning systems while summing up carbon-equivalent direct refrigerant emissions, indirect power plant greenhouse gas emissions, and carbon-equivalent embodied emissions. This paper describes an Enhanced and Localized Life- Cycle Climate Performance metric developed by a team of international experts to reflect real-life air-conditioning system operations.
Cooling with Less Warming: Improving Air Conditioners in India
TERI, NRDC & IGSD – 2018
Summary
As nations phase out ozone-depleting refrigerants to comply with the Montreal Protocol, the AC industry faces the challenge – and opportunity – of switching to refrigerants that have lower global warming potential (GWP). This transition to climate-friendly refrigerants also provides the opportunity to develop more energyefficient AC designs that will simultaneously help reduce growing energy demand and combat climate change. This factsheet provides an overview of the growing Indian AC market, strategies to advance climate- friendly ACs, and market opportunities under theMontreal Protocol. The factsheet also profiles two climate-friendly refrigerants with growing use in the AC market, both in India and worldwide.
Improving Air Conditioners in India
NRDC, IGSD & TERI – 2018
Summary
Urbanization, rising temperatures, and more frequent heat waves in India are driving cooling demand higher. Further, as living standards rise and electricity reaches more homes across India, sales of room air conditioners (ACs) are growing. The room AC stock has skyrocketed from 2 million units in 2006 to approximately 30 million units in 2017. Air conditioners are now viewed as a necessity for a healthy lifestyle, similar to the perception of refrigerator ownership in the 1990s. But, ACs also burden electric grids with greater peak power demand, leading to higher power plant fuel consumption and increasingly poor air quality. Increased AC use also exacerbates harmful climate change caused by emissions of carbon dioxide from power generation and the release of refrigerants such as hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), potent heat trapping gases used in air conditioners. For the room AC market to grow sustainably, “climate-friendly” room ACs – those that are both energy efficient and use climate- safe refrigerant gases – are needed.
2017
Well Under 2 Degrees Celsius: Fast Action Policies to Protect People and the Planet from Extreme Climate Change
Scripps, UCSD & IGSD – 2017
Summary
Climate change is an urgent problem requiring urgent solutions. This report lays out urgent and practical solutions that are ready for implementation now, will deliver benefits in the next few critical decades, and places the world on a path to achieving the longterm targets of the Paris Agreement and near-term sustainable development goals. The solutions consist of four building blocks and 3 levers to implement ten scalable solutions described in this report by a team of climate scientists, policy makers, social and behavioral scientists, political scientists, legal experts, diplomats and military experts from around the world.
Leap Frogging to Super Efficiency
TERI, IGSD, TERRE, & EESL – 2017
Summary
This paper describes how government, and environmental non-governmental organizations (NGOs) in India are finding synergy and innovative market transformation mechanisms in the pursuit of affordable super-efficient room air conditioners using refrigerants that are less damaging to climate. The synergy is at an early stage of success, but with much more work needed, including communication of lessons learned and advice for implementation in India’s export markets and replication worldwide.
2016
China’s Air Pollution Rules: Compliance and Enforcement Lessons From Global Good Practices
IGSD, EarthPace & Peking University Law School- 2016
Summary
In recent years, air pollution issues have received unprecedented public attention in China. Partly for this reason, the Chinese government has made significant efforts toward reducing air pollution. However, compliance and enforcement will be key to cleaning up the air in China and around the globe. This Article discusses seven specific challenges to achieving effective compliance with and enforcement of the air pollution rules in China. In this regard, global good practices can be useful references for the Chinese government and other stakeholders. Yet such discussions and considerations are only truly useful when viewed and considered within the context of China’s unique rulemaking and governance systems, as well as its cultural background.
Examining Patents for Alternatives to Hydrofluorocarbons in India
CEEW, NRDC, C2ES, & IGSD – 2016
Summary
Patents and other intellectual property such as know how are a complex issue for policy makers and civil society experts, especially considering the large number of patents involved and the sensitivity and confidentiality around licensing agreements. This paper does not attempt to find a solution to the patent debate. Rather, it examines developing country experiences in dealing with patents during earlier transitions under Montreal Protocol as well as highlights the key issues faced by Indian industry and policy makers.
2015
How Can the U.S. Lead in Paris to Achieve a Climate Agreement We Can Live With
ELI – 2015
Summary
Read Durwood Zaelke’s Debate: “Post-Paris Pivot to Fast Climate Change Mitigation” from ELI’s Environmental Forum: How Can the U.S. Lead in Paris to Achieve a Climate Agreement We Can Live With?
Patents and the Role of the Multilateral Fund
C2ES & IGSD – 2015
Summary
Parties to the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer are considering actions to phase down hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) because of their contributions to climate change. One important issue raised by Article 5 Parties1 is the concern that patents on recently developed low-global warming alternatives could restrict access to or increase the costs of transitioning to these substitutes. This paper looks at how issues related to patents have previously impacted the phase-out of ozone-depleting substances by Article 5 Parties with a focus on the role played by the Protocol’s Multilateral Fund.
Technological Change in the Production Sector under the Montreal Protocol
C2ES & IGSD – 2015
Summary
With negotiations under the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer (Montreal Protocol) considering limits on hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) as potent greenhouse gases, this paper examines past transitions during the relatively short, but dynamic history of this international treaty. It focuses on past shifts from chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) to hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) to HFCs, with the goal of identifying lessons that can inform discussions aimed at transitioning from high-global warming potential (high-GWP) HFCs.
Amending the Montreal Protocol: Summary of amendment proposals and discussion of key components to phasing down HFCs
NRDC, CEEW & IGSD – 2015
Summary
This paper discusses key aspects of proposed amendments for phasing down HFCs under the Montreal Protocol, including the North American proposal, Micronesian proposal, and the European Union discussion paper. It also discusses key features that could be included in a proposal to phase down HFCs under the Montreal Protocol, including control measures, grace periods, financial assistance from the Multilateral Fund, intellectual property rights, and safety. Furthermore, this paper explores the reasons why countries should consider their own amendment proposal. This paper is part of ongoing research on phasing down HFCs and is part of a series of papers already published on the benefits of switching to lower-GWP alternatives, including Cooling India with Less Warming: The Business Case for Phasing Down HFCs in Room and Vehicle Air Conditioners6 and Reducing Stress on India’s Energy Grid: The Power Sector Benefits of Transitioning to Lower Global Warming Potential and Energy Efficient Refrigerants in Room Air Conditioners,7 among others.
Reducing Stress on India’s Energy Grid: The Power Sector Benefits of Transitioning to Lower Global Warming Potential and Energy Efficient Refrigerants in Room Air Conditioners
NRDC, CEEW & IGSD – 2015
Summary
This interim draft paper explores the energy efficiency and power sector benefits of air conditioning companies in India to “leapfrog” and phase down unsustainable technologies based on chemicals with high GWP and move to a future based on climate-friendly and energy-efficient refrigerants.
The Extraordinary Experience of Building the Montreal Protocol, Lessons Learned, and Hopes for Future Climate Change Efforts
P. Canan, S. O. Andersen, N. Reichman, & B. Gareau – 2015
Summary
This special issue on Ozone Layer Protection and Climate Change reflects the leadership of the Association of Environmental Studies and Sciences (AESS) in drawing interdisciplinary attention to important environmental issues. The authors are scientists, diplomats, regulatory authorities, environmental activists, and scholars who are intimately involved in actions that protect the stratospheric ozone layer and climate. This issue provides new information and insightful analytic summaries of critical issues in the protection of the atmospheric environment and is also an urgent appeal to professors and students to place atmospheric protection prominently in thinking, research, teaching, and professional activities related to “sustainable development.” The authors describe and document the bold steps taken by individual and institutional leaders involved in the Montreal Protocol to thwart catastrophic ozone layer destruction, which incidentally, albeit on a sound scientific basis, addressed climate change. Because of strong leadership, effective networking, and concepts such the “precautionary principle” and “start and strengthen,” the Montreal Protocol is considered to be the most successful global environmental treaty. For example, thanks to innovative approaches adopted by both industry and government, the Montreal Protocol has already replaced about 85 % of ozone-depleting greenhouse gases with low global warming potential alternatives and increased product energy efficiency. But hardwork is needed to overcome the important challenges that remain, such as the phasedown of the 15 % of alternatives that are high global warming potential hydrofluorocarbons. Scientists, government officials, scholars, and business people must push for higher standards to achieve the combined goals of reducing both ozone-depleting substances and greenhouse gases.
The Importance of Phasing Down Hydrofluorocarbons and Other Short-lived Climate Pollutants
D. Zaelke & N. Borgford-Parnell – 2015
Summary
While negotiations continue for a United Nations (UN) Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) by December 2015 to take effect in 2020, a parallel effort to achieve fast climate mitigation is needed under the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer (Montreal Protocol) to slow current impacts and reduce risks of passing tipping points that trigger self-amplifying feedback mechanisms that accelerate warming. Fast reductions of short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs), including black carbon (BC), methane (CH4), tropospheric ozone (TO3), and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), can cut the rate of climate change in half by mid-century and by two thirds in the Arctic. The Montreal Protocol can be used to quickly phase down production and consumption of high global warming potential (GWP) HFCs, which can avoid 0.1 °C of warming by 2050, and 0.5 °C by 2100, while catalyzing improvements in appliance energy efficiency, which will provide further climate change mitigation by reducing energy use and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, particularly in fast-growing economies like India and China. The simultaneous global deployment of existing technologies can reduce emissions of BC, CH4, and TO3by enough to avoid an additional 0.5 °C of warming by 2050, while providing immediate benefits for human health, agriculture, and sustainable development. Fast action to reduce the four SLCPs will reduce the risk of setting off irreversible feedback mechanisms and provide urgent optimism and momentum for a successful UN climate treaty in 2015.
Lessons from the Stratospheric Ozone Layer Protection for Climate
S. O. Andersen – 2015
Summary
Ozone protection was the result of professional confidence and sacrifice; brilliant interdisciplinary science and the good fortune of an ozone hole with no explanation other than manufactured fluorocarbons; and industry and government leadership inspired by the realization that life on earth was in jeopardy. In response to the 1974 warning by Dr. Mario Molina and Dr. F. Sherwood Rowland that chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) were destroying the stratospheric ozone layer, almost 100 ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) have been phased out under the auspices of the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer (Montreal Protocol). This paper describes how the United Nations, national governments, citizens, and companies came together pragmatically for the public good. It describes seminal events where individuals and organizational leaders set the stage, came to agreement, and implemented the technology that protects stratospheric ozone and climate. These individuals, who became “Ozone Champions,” often acted alone and with great courage when they were sideways and crossways to the organizations where they were employed. This paper also describes how practical lessons from the successful Montreal Protocol can guide our global society and how stakeholders can positively influence each other to achieve comprehensive atmospheric protection—including halting climate change. The final section considers how the approaches of the Montreal Protocol can dismiss skepticism and embrace technical optimism in implementing cleaner coal and carbon sequestration, even as society aggressively pursues low-carbon renewable energy, energy efficiency, and a transition to sustainable lifestyles.
Phasing Down the Use of Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)
The New Climate Economy- 2015
Summary
This New Climate Economy Working Paper was written as a supporting document for the 2015 report of the Global Commission on the Economy and Climate, Seizing the Global Opportunity: Partnerships for Better Growth and a Better Climate. It reflects the research conducted for Section 2.10 of the full report and is part of a series of 10 Working Papers. It reflects the recommendations made by the Global Commission- 1. Major companies should commit to phasing out HFCs through cost-effective cooperative action programmes such as those of the Consumer Goods Forum and Refrigerants, Naturally! 2. The Parties to the UNFCCC should also be encouraged to include an HFC phase-down in their “intended nationally determined contributions” (INDCs), and reporting on HFC emissions should be extended to all countries. 3. Incorporating HFC production and consumption into the Montreal Protocol would provide significant near-term gains to slow climate change, and could lead to avoiding 1.1–1.7 Gt CO2e of annual GHG emissions per year by 2030.
Reducing Stress on India’s Energy Grid
NRDC, IGSD & CEEW – 2015
Summary
India is one of the fastest growing major economies in the world. Given the rising middle class and increasing temperatures, the commercial and residential sectors are expanding the use of room air conditioning (AC) units. This expansion stresses the electricity grid and power sector, often, during peak hours for electricity demand, causing power outages. Increasing the efficiency of air conditioning units is an immediate opportunity to strengthen the power sector and tackle climate change. Energy efficiency is also the low hanging fruit to achieve the Modi Government’s goals to increase access to energy and grow the Indian economy.
2014
Alternatives to High-GWP Hydrofluorocarbons
IGSD – 2014
Summary
This assessment report aims to give a concise and accessible picture of the current availability of alternative to high-global warming potential (GWP) hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) in their main uses with elaboration of their efficiency, cost-effectiveness, safety, environmental impacts and technical performance, as well as their applicability at high ambient temperatures, with the goal of better informing decision makers about the future of HFCs in a fast-evolving market and regulatory context.
A Global Response to HFCs through Fair and Effective Ozone and Climate Policies
Chatham House – 2014
Summary
This research paper draws on the discussions at a workshop held at Chatham House in April 2014, outlines the main issues around the question of how best to craft a fair and effective global response to the growth in HFC use. A number of key issues are central to the debate: the principle of equity between developed and developing countries; the availability of alternatives to HFCs; the need for financial support for developing countries; the legal relationship between the climate and ozone regimes; and, underlying all these, the need for political will to resolve these challenges.
Next-Generation Refrigerants for Energy Efficiency and Climate Protection
Terre Policy Center & IGSD – 2014
Summary
Workshop held in Pune brought together India’s business, government, air conditioning trade association, and civil society leaders to share the latest information on ozone-safe, low-GWP, energy-efficient Room Air Conditioning (RAC) and Mobile Air Conditioning (MAC).
Mobile Air Conditioning and Room Air Conditioning Strategy to Reduce Climate Forcing from Hydrofluorocarbons
UNEP, IGSD & Terre Policy Center – 2014
Summary
Update on the HFC Phase Down in Mobile Air Conditioning
IGSD, NRDC & CEEW – 2014
Summary
Global automakers moving to HFO-1235YF, except some German automakers waiting for CO2 systems.
2013
Unpacking the Problem
Y. Xu & D. Zaelke – 2013
The Need for Speed
IGSD – February 2013
Cooling India with Less Warming: The Business Case for Phasing Down HFCs in Room and Vehicle Air Conditioners
NRDC, CEEW, TERI & IGSD – 2013
Stratospheric ozone, global warming, and the principle of unintended consequences
S. O. Andersena, M. L. Halberstadt, & N. Borgford-Parnell – 2013
Summary
Stratospheric ozone, global warming, and the principle of unintended consequences—An ongoing science and policy success story.
The role of HFCs in mitigating 21st century climate change
Y. Xu, D. Zaelke, G. J. M. Velders, & V. Ramanathan – 2013
Summary
There is growing international interest in mitigating climate change during the early part of this century by reducing emissions of short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs), in addition to reducing emissions of CO2. The SLCPs include methane (CH4), black carbon aerosols (BC), tropospheric ozone (O3) and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). Recent studies have estimated that by mitigating emissions of CH4, BC, and O using available technologies, about 0.5 to 0.6◦C warming can be avoided by mid-21st century. Here we show that avoiding production and use of high-GWP (global warming potential) HFCs by using technologically feasible low-GWP substitutes to meet the increasing global demand can avoid as much as another 0.5◦C warming by the end of the century. This combined mitigation of SLCPs would cut the cumulative warming since 2005 by 50% at 2050 and by 60% at 2100 from the CO2-only mitigation scenarios, significantly reducing the rate of warming and lowering the probability of exceeding the 2◦C warming threshold during this century.
A comprehensive approach for reducing anthropogenic climate impacts including risk of abrupt climate changes
M. Molina & D. Zaelke – 2013
Summary
Annual greenhouse gases emissions in 2010 were at their highest recorded level in spite of a global recession. The risk is growing that the climate system could pass tipping points that lead to abrupt and irreversible impacts on a continental scale, perhaps within decades. Successfully addressing climate change requires fast and aggressive action to reduce CO2 emissions, which are responsible for up to 55% of radiative forcing since 1750. It also requires fast and aggressive action to reduce emissions of the pollutants causing the other 45% of warming – the non-CO2 climate forcers, including hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), black carbon, methane, and tropospheric ozone. Along with reducing CO2, reducing emissions of these non- CO2 climate forcers, which in most cases can be done using existing technologies and existing laws and institutions, can cut the rate of global warming in half for several decades and by two-thirds in the Arctic in the next 30 years. In addition, given the profoundly persistent nature of CO2, it is necessary to explore and implement “carbon-negative” strategies to drawdown existing CO2 on a timescale of decades rather than millennia, and ultimately produce a net drawdown of CO2 when sinks exceed sources.
2012
Preserving Montreal Protocol Climate Benefits by Limiting HFCs
G. J. M. Velders, A. R. Ravishankara, M. K. Miller, M. J. Molina, J. Alcamo, J. S. Daniel, D. W. Fahey, S. A. Montzka, & S. Reimann – 2012
Summary
With no impending global controls on HFCs, the Montreal Protocol offers a near-term path to preserve its climate benefits.
Strengthening Ambition for Climate Mitigation: The Role of the Montreal Protocol in Reducing Short-lived Climate Pollutants
D. Zaelke, S. Andersen, & N. Borgford- Parnell – 2012
Summary
The level of ambition of the public and policy makers to protect the climate is currently far too low to slow the accelerating pace of climate impacts. Ambition can be strengthened using strategies that disaggregate the overall climate problem into manageable pieces, borrow existing laws and institutions to take fast action following a ‘start and strengthen’ approach. This is illustrated by the strategy to phase down the production and consumption of high global warming potential hydrofluorocarbons under the Montreal Protocol. Such an approach could cut the rate of global warming in half for the next several decades, and even more in the Arctic and other climate vulnerable regions. This can provide fast success and build the sense of urgent optimism needed to raise ambition to do more to address carbon dioxide emissions – the single largest contributor to climate change.
2011
Reduction of Anode Effect Duration in 400kA Prebake Cells
W. Zhang, D. Wong, M. Gilbert, et al – 2011
Summary
In order to improve energy efficiency and reduce green house gas emissions, the aluminum smelting industry has been continuously working on reducing both anode effect frequency (AEF) and duration (AED). However, there is still a long way to go to achieve zero anode effect (AE) on very high amperage, low specific power consumption cells due to the added complexity of the process. A new program to quickly terminate AEs has been developed by Light Metals Research Centre, the University of Auckland, in conjunction with the efforts of the Asia Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate (APP) to facilitate investment in clean technologies and to accelerate the sharing of energy efficient best practices. A pilot project was initiated to test an automatic Anode Effect Termination (AET) program on 400kA cells in Zhongfu, China. This paper demonstrates the success of the new anode effect termination (AET) program in killing AEs on this cell technology without conflicting with normal cell operations. The resulting decrease in average anode effect duration (AED) is demonstrated.
Why phase down HFCs under the Montreal Protocol?
Questions & Answers about regulating hydrofluorocarbons under the Montreal Protocol
IGSD – November 2011
Summary
Strengthening the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer (Montreal Protocol‖) to regulate hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) will provide fast-action climate mitigation to complement long-term reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Fast-action to reduce HFC emissions is necessary to avoid tipping points for abrupt, irreversible, and catastrophic climate changes and other ―dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.
Our Planet: Powering Climate Solutions
UNEP – 2011
Summary
The magazine of the United Nations Environment Programme:
A.R.Ravishankara, Mario Molina and Durwood Zaelke: At a crossroads.
Romina Picolotti: An equitable arrangement.
Veerabhadran Ramanathan and Nithya Ramaathan: An unprecedented opportunity .
The Chinese version is here
The French version is here
2010
Top 10 Reasons for Addressing Non-CO2 Climate Forcers
IGSD – December 2010
Summary
Top 10 Reasons for Addressing Non-CO2 Climate Forcers, in addition to CO2.
2009
Reducing abrupt climate chante risk using the Montreal Protocol and other regulatory actions to complement cuts in CO2 emissions
M. Molina, D. Zaelke, K. Madhava Sarma, S. O. Andersen, V. Ramanathan, & D. Kaniaru – 2009
Summary
Current emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) have already committed the planet to an increase in average surface temperature by the end of the century that may be above the critical threshold for tipping elements of the climate system into abrupt change with potentially irreversible and unmanage- able consequences. This would mean that the climate system is close to entering if not already within the zone of ‘‘dangerous anthropogenic interference’’ (DAI). Scientific and policy literature refers to the need for ‘‘early,’’ ‘‘urgent,’’ ‘‘rapid,’’ and ‘‘fast-action’’ mitigation to help avoid DAI and abrupt climate changes. We define ‘‘fast-action’’ to include regulatory measures that can begin within 2–3 years, be substantially implemented in 5–10 years, and produce a climate response within decades. We discuss strategies for short-lived non-CO2 GHGs and particles, where existing agree- ments can be used to accomplish mitigation objectives. Policy makers can amend the Montreal Protocol to phase down the production and consumption of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) with high global warming potential. Other fast-action strategies can reduce emissions of black carbon particles and precursor gases that lead to ozone formation in the lower atmosphere, and increase biosequestration, including through biochar. These and other fast- action strategies may reduce the risk of abrupt climate change in the next few decades by complementing cuts in CO2 emissions.
