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By CCAC Secretariat:

Ministers and high-level representatives of 25 countries today backed the adoption of an ambitious amendment to the Montreal Protocol to phase-down the use of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), which are powerful greenhouse gases.

The Ministers and high-level representatives of the Climate and Clean Air Coalition (CCAC) are convinced that stopping the fast growth of HFCs and finding alternatives to them is one of the best opportunities to reduce short lived climate pollutants (SLCPs), and make a major contribution to achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement.

 “Now is the time to act to ensure that we avoid the climate impacts of HFCs before they grow any larger. The science is clear, as is the path we must take,” the CCAC Communique said. “An HFC phase-down under the Montreal Protocol can avoid up to 0.5⁰ Celsius of global warming by the turn of the century.”

The communique was adopted at a specially convened meeting of CCAC’s High Level Assembly, which confirmed the support and commitment of Coalition partners for rapid action to reduce HFCs under the Montreal Protocol.

Hakima El Haite, Minister of Environment and Climate Champion of the Kingdom of Morocco, conveyed to delegates that the Moroccan presidency of COP 22 expressly supported the adoption of an ambitious amendment of the Montreal Protocol at the Petersberg Climate Dialogue.

“This will avoid up to 0.5⁰ Celsius of global warming and will be a major contribution to achieve the temperature goals set in the Paris Agreement. If we accompany the HFC phase-down with policies to promote super-efficient appliances we can double our climate benefit while also improving air quality and strengthening energy security,” Dr El Haite said. “The past week we resolved the preliminary challenges, including finance. Now we are ready for the final step, which is to adopt the amendment in October.  As a Climate Champion for COP 22, I am committed to achieving this historic agreement this year to protect the Earth and our citizens.”

Many of the HFCs an amendment will reduce have a Global Warming Potential (GWP) 100s to 1000s of times more powerful than carbon-dioxide (CO2).

Moving to super-efficient, and affordable cooling technologies that use low-GWP refrigerants will also have additional benefits for climate change mitigation. Complementing an HFC phase-down with measures to improve the energy efficiency of HFC-containing equipment can also reduce CO2 emissions, the CCAC Communique notes. For example, improving the average efficiency of air conditioners sold in 2030 by 30% could reduce CO2 emissions by up to 25 billion tonnes over the lifetime of the equipment.

Many of the HFCs an amendment will reduce have a Global Warming Potential (GWP) 100s to 1000s of times more powerful than carbon-dioxide (CO2).

The CCAC Ministers and high level representatives highlighted the viability of rapid phase-down of HFCs, saying that there are an increasing number of climate-friendly alternatives to HFCs in many sectors and applications and welcomed efforts to develop and adopt technologies and practices that reduce HFC use and emissions and collaborate internationally to expand the availability of low or zero GWP alternatives.

CCAC State Partners also recognized the need for increased support to the Multilateral Fund of the Montreal Protocol to provide assistance to developing countries to implement an ambitious phase-down and are encouraged by the recent statements from G7 and Nordic country leaders signalling their intent to provide additional support through the Multilateral Fund following adoption of an amendment for its implementation.

The CCAC Ministers and high-level representatives are committed to being vocal and active on the issue and challenged states to take the significant steps required to “ensure that we have an ambitious HFC phase down amendment in 2016 no later than when the Parties to the Montreal Protocol meet in Rwanda in October 2016”.

Additional quotes:

Gina McCarthy, Administrator for the United States Environmental Protection Agency

“We are making tremendous progress and I am optimistic that an ambitious amendment with broad international support will get over the finish line this year. We urge all countries to join us in taking the next major step forward after Paris to fight climate change and protect our common home.”

Ibrahim Thiaw, Deputy Executive Director of the United Nations Environment Programme

“The Montreal Protocol is a living example of what the International community can achieve by bridging science, policy and regular funding. The ozone layer is now healing largely due to actions taken under the protocol. The same parties that have crafted the Montreal Protocol are discussing how they can turn this expertise and track record of success to phasing-down HFCs and protecting climate.”

Rita Cerutti, CCAC Co-Chair and International Affairs Advisor, Environment and Climate Change, Canada

“An ambitious HFC phase-down amendment in 2016 is within reach, and the CCAC has continued to work towards contributing to this goal by promoting HFC alternatives, undertaking demonstration projects, supporting national HFC inventories, and organizing technology conferences.  We have a successful, proven instrument in the Montreal Protocol, a pressing climate need, and a group of motivated, committed Partners.  An HFC phase-down amendment is feasible and achievable in 2016, and the CCAC is doing its part to help realize one of the most important actions that can be taken to contribute to meeting the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement.”

The CCAC “Vienna Communique” is here.

Aggressive cuts to both long-lived carbon dioxide and short-lived super pollutants

29 June 2016, Ottawa – Today President Obama, Prime Minister Trudeau, and President Pena Nieto agreed to an aggressive double-barreled climate strategy, committing to cut both carbon dioxide, by moving to 50% clean energy sources by 2025, and the short-lived super pollutants. The leaders stated:

Short-lived climate pollutants such as methane, black carbon, and hydrofluorocarbons are up to thousands of times more potent than carbon dioxide. Common sense actions to reduce these pollutants will deliver significant climate and health benefits in the near term and into the future, supporting our goal to limit global warming this century.

The leaders’ clean energy target includes energy efficiency to reduce demand, including cooperation on standards for efficient air conditioning (AC) and other appliances.  “Globally, improving AC efficiency by 30% can save enough electricity to avoid up to 1,600 medium-size peak power plants by 2030, and up to 2,500 by 2050, which would avoid up to 100 billion tons of CO2,” said Durwood Zaelke, President of the Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development, citing an analysis by Lawrence Berkeley National Lab.

The three leaders agreed to implement federal regulations for both existing and new sources of methane to reduce emissions 40-45% below 2012 levels by 2025. The three countries also agreed to encourage oil and gas firms to join international efforts to join the Climate & Clean Air Coalition (CCAC) Oil and Gas Methane Partnership, and the Global Methane Initiative.

The leaders agreed to cut black carbon emissions from new heavy-duty diesel vehicles to near-zero levels continent-wide with emission standards by 2018, while also expanding existing partnerships with the World Bank, the CCAC, and other venues working to reduce black carbon.

The leaders agreed to take individual national actions on HFCs, a super pollutant use in refrigeration and air conditioning.  The US will finalize a rule prohibiting the use of certain high-global warming potential HFCs under the Significant New Alternatives Policy (SNAP) program, Canada will establish a domestic regulatory permitting and reporting regime for HFCs and develop new HFC regulatory measures, including a phase-down of HFCs and product-specific prohibitions, and Mexico will initiate new actions to authorize the use of low global warming potential SNAP-approved HFC alternatives.

The leaders called on all countries to support an ambitious and comprehensive amendment to the Montreal Protocol in 2016 to phase down HFCs.  Such an amendment can provide the equivalent of up to 100 billion tons of carbon dioxide mitigation by 2050, and avoid up to 0.5°C warming by 2100. The Montreal Protocol parties have an extraordinary meeting in Vienna next month, plus the regular Meeting of Parties in Kigali, Rwanda in October, where the amendment is likely to be agreed.

“The HFC amendment is key to reducing near-term warming,” Zaelke added, “and key to continuing the momentum of the Paris Agreement through COP 22 in Marrakech this November. It promises to be the single biggest climate prize this year.”

“The three leaders understand that cutting HFCs and the other short-lived super pollutants can cut the rate of global warming in half in the near-term through mid-century, and by two-thirds in the Arctic, and will help slow down self-amplifying feedbacks where the initial warming feeds upon itself and causes still more warming,” Zaelke said.

The Leaders’ Statement is here; the Action Plan is here.

 

IGSD’s Primer on HFCs is here and its Primer on SLCPs is here.

Leaders agree to make down payment by cutting HFCs under Montreal Protocol

7 June 2016, Washington, DC – Today Prime Minister Modi and President Obama took another big step forward as partners in the battle to slow climate change, when India agreed to join the climate deal negotiated in Paris last December to bring it into force before President Obama leaves office January 20th next year.  Early entry into force will make it more difficult for any subsequent president to reverse the Paris Agreement.

The two leaders, who have developed a strong partnership based on mutual respect and shared concerns during their seven meetings, also agreed to work together to phase down short-lived super climate pollutants called hydrofluorocarbons, or HFCs, by amending the Montreal Protocol this year. This treaty has already successfully stopped the destruction of the stratospheric ozone layer.

“The HFC phase down is the single biggest down payment on the Paris pledge” said Durwood Zaelke, President of the Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development.

The phase down will avoid the equivalent of up to 100 billion tons of carbon dioxide in emissions by 2050, and up to 0.5°C (0.9°F) of warming by 2100.  This represents about 10 percent of the mitigation needed to keep warming to no more than 2°C above pre-Industrial levels.

Zaelke added, “Parallel efforts to improve the energy efficiency of air conditioners during the switch out of HFC refrigerants can double the climate benefits of the HFC phase down, avoiding 200 or more billion tons of CO2 equivalent by 2050.”

There are currently 900 million air conditioners, growing to 2.5 billion or more by 2050.  Improving energy efficiency by a modest 30% can save enough energy in India to avoid up to 142 medium-size peak power plants by 2030. These are the least efficient and most polluting plants, running on dirty diesel, which emits CO2 and black carbon particulate pollution.

Andrew Freedman reporting in Mashable.com writes that the Modi-Obama HFC agreement includes “an ambitious phase down schedule,” as well as additional funding from developed countries to help developing countries with implementation.

“Knowing the president will be leaving in January means the two leaders need to accelerate action on climate that benefits them both,” Zaelke added.  “Their friendship surely will endure, but their partnership as the leaders of the two biggest democracies inevitably must end.”

IGSD’s Primer on HFCs is here.

Reduzindo HFCs, carbon negro e metano corta-se na metade a taxa de aquecimento

Além de se comprometerem a liderarem os esforços para fazer o Acordo de Paris entrar vigor em 2016, a declaração de 27 de maio dos líderes do G7 promete pela primeira vez a cortar o aquecimento de curto prazo por meio da eliminação progressiva de super poluentes de vida curta como carbono negro, metano, e HFCs. Os líderes também se comprometeram a aprovarem uma emenda ao Protocolo de Montreal em 2016 para eliminar progressivamente HFCs. “Os líderes do G7 deram um grande passo a frente em matéria de política climática, comprometendo-se a cortar o aquecimento a curto prazo, reduzindo os super poluentes”, disse Durwood Zaelke, presidente do Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development e um especialista em super-poluentes de vida curta.

“Cortando esses super poluentes pode-se cortar a taxa de aquecimento pela metade até meados do século e ainda mais no frágil Ártico”, acrescentou Zaelke. “Isso é fundamental para retardar os mecanismos retroalimentares, onde o aquecimento inicial alimenta a si mesma e causa ainda mais aquecimento.” Por exemplo, o derretimento sem precedentes do gelo do mar Ártico, um escudo branco que reflete de volta ao espaço a energia solar recebida, acrescentou um outro quarto de aquecimento tanto quanto o dióxido de carbono desde 1979, principalmente no próprio Ártico. Outro mecanismo que se retroalimenta é a migração para o norte do permafrost, onde o solo, que uma vez já foi permanentemente congelado, agora está derretendo e liberando metano retido, o que causa ainda mais aquecimento.

Cortar HFCs no âmbito do Protocolo de Montreal pode fornecer uma mitigação equivalente a até 100 bilhões de toneladas de dióxido de carbono até 2050, e evitar até 0.5C do aquecimento até 2100. Os HFCs são utilizados principalmente como gases refrigerantes.

Melhorar a eficiência energética dos aparelhos de ar condicionado residenciais em paralelo ao abandono do HFCs como gás refrigerador no âmbito do Protocolo de Montreal pode dobrar a mitigação das alterações climáticas, de acordo com cálculos feitos pelo laboratório da Universidade de Berkeley (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory), elevando o total para 200 bilhões de toneladas de dióxido de carbono equivalente. Isso pode poupar energia suficiente para evitar a construção de até 1.600 novas usinas termoelétricas de médio porte até 2030 ou até de 2500 novas termoelétricas até o ano de 2050.

Os líderes do G7 também se comprometeram a promover a inovação e o investimento em energia renovável limpa e eficiência energética para descarbonizar a economia global, eliminar gradualmente os subsídios aos combustíveis fósseis até 2025, mobilizar $100 bilhões de dólares anuais para o fundo do clima anual até 2020, e alcançar o crescimento neutro em carbono da aviação a partir de 2020.

O Fact Sheet da Casa Branca sobre a Reunião do G7 está disponível aqui.

O Primer sobre HFC do IGSD está disponível aqui; O Primer sobre SLCP está disponível aqui.

Reducing HFCs, black carbon, and methane can half rate of warming

In addition to committing to lead efforts to bring the Paris Agreement into force in 2016, the May 27th G7 leaders’ declaration committed for the first time to cutting near-term warming by phasing down short-lived super pollutants black carbon, methane, and HFCs. The leaders also committed to amending the Montreal Protocol in 2016 to phase down HFCs.

“The G7 leaders took a major step forward on climate policy by committing to cut near-term warming by reducing the super pollutants,” said Durwood Zaelke, President of the Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development, and an expert on short-lived super pollutants.

“Cutting these super pollutants can cut the rate of warming in half through mid-century and even more in the fragile Arctic,” Zaelke added. “This is critical for slowing self-reinforcing feedback mechanisms, where the initial warming feeds upon itself and causes still more warming.”

For example, the unprecedented melting of Arctic sea ice, a white shield that reflects incoming solar energy back to space, has added another quarter as much warming as carbon dioxide since 1979, and much more in the Arctic.

Another self-reinforcing feedback mechanism is the northward migration of permafrost, where soil that was once permanently frozen is now melting and releasing methane that causes still more warming.

Cutting HFCs under the Montreal Protocol can provide the equivalent of up to 100 billion tons of carbon dioxide in mitigation by 2050, and avoid up to 0.5C of warming by 2100. HFCs are primarily used as refrigerants.

Improving energy efficiency of room air conditioners in parallel with the refrigerant switch away from HFCs under the Montreal Protocol can double the climate mitigation, according to calculations by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, bringing the total to 200 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent. This can save enough energy to avoid up to 1,600 medium-size power plants by 2030, and up to 2,500 by 2050.

The G7 leaders also committed to promote innovation and investment in clean renewable energy and energy efficiency to decarbonize the global economy, to phase out subsidies for dirty fossil fuels by 2025, to mobilize the $100 billion annual climate fund by 2020, and to achieve carbon neutral growth in aviation from 2020.

The White House Fact Sheet on the G7 Summit is here.

IGSD’s HFC Primer is here; IGSD’s SLCP Primer is here.

The Portuguese translation of this press release is here.

Reducciones rápidas de los ‘ grandes contaminantes’, el metano y el hollín, son necesarios para prevenir consecuencias calamitosas a corto plazo.

El Acuerdo del Clima de Paris, que representantes de 175 países firmaron el viernes, es importante pero no es suficiente. La velocidad es primordial en la protección ambiental. Reducciones inmediatas de los cuatro contaminantes climáticos de corta vida podría hacer la diferencia entre un clima relativamente seguro y uno con severos costos humanos y económicos.

Recientemente científicos han divulgado alertas climáticas, ya que el calentamiento se está acelerando a un paso sin precedente en los últimos 66 millones de años. El hielo del Ártico, que refleja un porcentaje considerable del calentamiento atmosférico, alcanzó un nuevo record de extensión mínima invernal. Y la anteriormente estable capa de hielo occidental de la Antártida ha comenzado a deteriorarse, pronosticando una elevación del nivel del mar de 182 centímetros (cinco a seis pies) durante este siglo , inundando múltiples ciudades y poblaciones costeras.

Los riesgos para la salud human también se están acelerando. De acuerdo con el informe reciente de la Casa Blanca, en los Estados Unidos cada año miles de personal morirán prematuramente por consecuencia de olas de calor extremas, inundaciones, tormentas violentas, y de enfermedades transmitidas por mosquitos y garrapatas. Los costos económicos serán astronómicos si fallamos en mantener la temperatura global por debajo de lo 2ºC (en relación a los niveles pre-industriales)- el limite máximo recomendado por los expertos para poder mantera alguna garantía de seguridad. Adaptarse al aumento de la temperatura global afectara el crecimiento económico mundial y costara trillones durante el próximo siglo, dejando a millones de personas más inmersas en la pobreza, y haciendo más caro el costo de lidiar con el cambio climático.

Este escenario escalofriante es uno en el cual mecanismos de retroalimentación causan impactos incontrolables en un circulo vicioso. Por ejemplo, a medida de que se acelera el calentamiento, el agotamiento del hielo marino del Ártico ha incrementado un 25% más de calentamiento extra desde 1979 más allá del de las emisiones de dióxido de carbono. De manera similar, el Ártico se calienta dos veces más rápido que el promedio global, el permafrost se derrite liberando metano causando aun más calentamiento. Durante el año pasado, el incremento de temperaturas también contribuyó a  records de incendios forestales en Alaska, los cuales derriten la capa aislante que superpone al permafrost, liberando aun más metano en la atmósfera, emisiones de metano adicionales a las emisiones de carbono emitidas por el mismo incendio.

Al menos que detengamos rápidamente estos mecanismos auto amplificantes, perderemos la primera batalla significativa ante el cambio climático y enfrentaremos problemas más graves en el futuro.

En el marco del Acuerdo de Paris todos los países deben cumplir sus promesas de realizar reducciones agresivas de las emisiones de dióxido de carbono. Aun en el mejor de los casos, la temperatura global aumentará entre 2.2 y 3.4 grados centígrados, sobrepasando la ‘seguridad’ de los 2ºC. La más rápida y mejor manera de prevenir la desestabilización climática inmediata consiste en reducir las emisiones de los grandes contaminantes que contribuyen de una manera primordial en el corto plazo al calentamiento a pesar de que son producidos en cantidades mucho menores que el dióxido de carbono. Estos incluyen el ozono  troposférico, el  hollín de carbono negro, de fuentes como las plantas de energía y los motores diesel, el metano (a menudo de fuentes de gas natural y agricultura) y refrigerantes de hidrofluorocarbonos (HFCs) en sistemas de aire acondicionado y otros sistemas.

Estos grandes contaminantes tienen un impacto de calentamiento entre 28 y 4,000 veces más potentes que el dióxido de carbono. Debido a su corta vida, disminuir sus emisiones en la atmósfera provoca una respuesta climática relativamente rápida. El ozono a nivel del suelo y el carbono negro tienen un vida atmosférica de un mes, el metano y los HFCs tiene una vida de 15 años. Por el contrario, 25% del dióxido de carbono se mantiene en la atmósfera por 500 años o más. Reducciones drásticas de los contaminantes de vida corta pueden reducir la velocidad de calentamiento hasta un 50% en la fase critica de hoy hasta el 2050.

Esta puede ser la mejor- si no la única- manera de ralentizar el calentamiento a corto plazo, y de prevenir que los mecanismos auto amplificantes se salgan fuera de control. Existen otros beneficios enormes. La contaminación del carbono negro reduce la expectativa de vida de millones de personas cada año: remplazar los vehículos diesel contaminantes y las estufas de cocina tradicionales y lámparas ineficientes (usualmente usadas dentro de hogares en países en desarrollo con efectos mortales) podría prevenir la muerte de 80 millones de personas durante los próximos 20 años. Ozono a nivel del suelo suele dañar cultivos: reducir sus emisiones puede aumentar la seguridad alimentaria para miles de millones de personas. El uso mundial de los HFCs puede ser limitado bajo el Protocolo de Montreal iniciando este año.

Disminuir las emisiones de CO2 es imperativo y no se debe retrasar. Sin embargo una estrategia en paralelo para reducir los grandes contaminantes climáticos es tal vez aun más importante para prevenir consecuencias catastróficas a corto plazo.

Mario Molina compartió el Premio Novel de Química en 1995 por su trabajo en clorofluorocarbonos y da clases en la Universidad de California, San Diego.

V. Ramanathan descubrió el efecto invernadero de los halocarbonos, y ahora es profesor de ciencias climáticas y atmosféricas en UC San Diego.

Durwood Zaelke es el presidente del Instituto de Gobernanza y Desarrollo Sostenible.

This column was originally published in USA Today on 22 April 2016. 

The French translation is here.

L’Accord de Paris sur le climat signé vendredi 22 avril est important, mais pas suffisant. En terme de protection climatique, il faut agir vite. Une réduction immédiate de quatre super polluants pourrait aider à faire la différence entre un climat raisonnablement sécurisé et un climat qui aurait des coûts humains et financiers ahurissants.

Les scientifiques ont récemment tiré de nouvelles sonnettes d’alarme climatique, alors que le réchauffement s’accélère à un rythme sans précédent depuis 66 millions d’années. La mer de glace de l’Arctique, qui renvoie une chaleur significative dans l’atmosphère, vient encore d’atteindre un record hivernal de rétrécissement. Et la calotte glaciaire de l’Ouest Antarctique pourrait être en train de se désintégrer, menaçant d’entraîner une élévation du niveau de la mer de cinq à six pieds à l’échelle de ce siècle, inondant de nombreuses villes et populations côtières.

Les risques pour la santé humaine continuent de s’accélérer. Aux Etats-Unis, des dizaines de milliers de personnes mourront prématurément chaque année en raison de vagues d’extrêmes chaleurs, d’inondations et orages violents, ainsi qu’en raison des maladies véhiculées par les moustiques et les tiques, selon un rapport récent de la Maison Blanche. Le coût financier sera astronomique si l’on échoue à contenir le réchauffement sous la barre des 2°C avant la période pré-industrielle- la limite maximum recommandée par les experts pour un minimum de sécurité. S’adapter à la montée des températures ralentira la croissance économique mondiale et coûtera des milliers de milliards au cours du siècle à venir, confinant des millions de personne à la pauvreté, aggravant les coûts de la facture climatique.

Le scénario cauchemar est celui induisant de l’arrivée de « mécanismes de rétroaction » qui auront des impacts incontrôlés, créant un cercle vicieux sans fin. Par exemple, alors que le réchauffement s’accélère, le rétrécissement de  la mer de glace de l’Arctique entraîne un réchauffement supplémentaire de 25% depuis 1979 en sus du réchauffement issu des émissions de dioxyde de carbone. De même, alors que l’Arctique se réchauffe deux fois plus vite que la moyenne globale, le pergélisol dégèle et libère du méthane qui accentue d’autant le réchauffement. Dans le courant de l’année dernière, la hausse des températures a également contribué à des feux de forêts records en Alaska, ce qui fait fondre la couche isolante supérieure du pergélisol, ajoutant encore plus de méthane dans l’atmosphère, en plus du carbone émis par les incendies eux-mêmes.

Si l’on ne parvient pas à ralentir rapidement ces mécanismes de rétroaction, nous pourrions perdre l’importante bataille du réchauffement climatique et être confrontés à des problèmes futurs encore plus importants.

Tous les pays doivent maintenir et poursuivre leurs engagements de réductions importantes d’émissions de dioxyde de carbones au nom de l’Accord de Paris. Pourtant, même si ce dernier était en totalité exécuté, les températures mondiales vont continuer d’augmenter entre 2,2°C et 3,4°C, bien au-dessus du seuil des 2°C. Le meilleur moyen, et le plus rapide, d’éviter une déstabilisation climatique, est de réduire les émissions de super polluants qui contribuent grandement au réchauffement en dépit du fait qu’ils sont produits en de bien plus faibles quantités que le dioxyde de carbone. Ils incluent notamment l’ozone troposphérique et les émissions de noir de carbone, issus des centrales électriques et des moteurs diésel, ainsi que le méthane (émis par les système de gaz naturels et de l’agriculture) et les hydrofluorocarbures (HFC) dans les climatiseurs et autres systèmes réfrigérants.

Ces quatre super polluants sont entre 28 and 4,000 fois plus puissants en termes de réchauffement que le dioxyde de carbone. Et puisqu’ils ne restent que peu de temps dans l’atmosphère, ralentir leur émission peut réduire le réchauffement rapidement. L’ozone troposphérique et le noir de carbone disparaissent en un mois, le méthane et les HFC en 15 ans. En revanche, 25% du dioxyde de carbone restent dans l’atmosphère pendant 500 ans ou plus. Réduire drastiquement les super polluants pourrait réduire le rythme du réchauffement de presque 50% dans la période critique entre aujourd’hui et 2050.

Ces réductions sont sans doute le meilleur – et peut être le seul – moyen de ralentir le réchauffement à moyen terme, et d’empêcher que les mécanismes de rétroaction ne deviennent incontrôlables. Il existe d’autres bénéfices de taille. La pollution émise par le noir de carbone coûtera des millions de vie par an: remplacer les véhicules diesel ainsi que les fourneaux à charbon et lanternes (souvent utilisées à l’intérieur dans les pays en voie de développement avec des effets mortels) pourrait sauver jusqu’à 80 millions de vies humaines sur les 20 prochaines années. L’ozone troposphérique nuit aux récoltes, la réduire permettra d’améliorer la sécurité alimentaire pour des centaines de millions. L’utilisation mondiale des HFC peut être réduite par le Protocole de Montréal cette année.

Réduire les émissions de dioxyde de carbone reste un impératif qui ne peut être reporté. Cependant, la stratégie parallèle de réduction des super polluants est peut être encore plus importante pour éviter des conséquences désastreuses à moyen terme.

Mario Molina a partagé le Prix Nobel de Chimie en 1995 pour ses travaux sur les chlorofluorocarbures et enseigne à l’Université de Californie, San Diego.

V. Ramanathan a découvert le potentiel de réchauffement des halocarbures et est professeur de science atmosphérique et climatique à UC San Diego.

Durwood Zaelke est Président de  l’Institut pour la Gouvernance & Développement Durable.

This column was originally published in USA Today on 22 April 2016. 

The Spanish translation is here.

Montreal Protocol Parties poised to eliminate warming from one of six main climate pollutants

The French translation of this press release is here.

10 April 2016, Geneva – In the first test of post-Paris climate mitigation, Parties to the Montreal Protocol made significant progress last week to eliminate warming from super greenhouse gases known as hydrofluorocarbons, or HFCs, used primarily as refrigerants in air conditioners and other equipment. HFCs are one of the six main greenhouse gases.

This follows agreement by Montreal Protocol Parties last year in Dubai, just before the Paris climate agreement, to resolve a list of issues early this year while working towards an amendment to phase out HFCs with high global warming potential in 2016.  The Montreal Protocol is the world’s only treaty with universal membership. It is widely considered the world’s most effective environmental treaty, phasing out Freon and other fluorinated gases to put the stratospheric ozone layer on track to recover by mid-century, while also providing more climate mitigation than any other agreement—the equivalent of more than 135 billion tons of carbon dioxide.

In Geneva last week the Parties reached tentative agreement on a four-year, potentially renewable exemption for Gulf States and other countries with high-ambient temperature in three sectors. This is to ensure availability of HFC substitutes that cool as efficiently as HFCs. Efficiency is critical, as up to 90% of climate impacts come from the fossil fuel used to provide electricity for air conditioners and other appliances. Saudi Arabia, for example, currently uses up to 70% of its peak electricity for air conditioning, India up to 50%. The Parties are considering how to promote efficiency gains for air conditioners and other appliances, which can avoid up to 100 billion tons of carbon dioxide by 2050, roughly the same as the mitigation from reducing HFCs.

Building on language from the 54 countries of the Africa Group, the Parties also reached tentative agreement on text to ensure that the Montreal Protocol’s dedicated funding mechanism covers appropriate incremental costs for converting to climate friendly alternatives, and to support training for service technicians. (The agreed Geneva text is subject to final agreement on the other aspects of the proposed phase-out of the HFCs with high global warming potential, including when the phase-out will begin and how fast it will go.)

The Parties directed the treaty secretariat to prepare a consolidated negotiating text, based on the four pending proposals to control HFCs, as submitted by island states, the first to propose the strategy, North American Parties, the European Union, and India.

The Parties made progress on other issues as well, but in the end the clock ran out, the interpreters went home at the stroke of midnight, and discussions were suspended a little after midnight, to resume two days before the next scheduled negotiating session in Vienna July 18-21.

“This was the most constructive meeting ever on the HFC amendment, and sets the stage for victory this year,” said Durwood Zaelke.

The Montreal Protocol will hold an extra-ordinary Meeting of Parties in Vienna 22-23 July, and another Meeting of Parties in Kigali, Rwanda in October.

Following the success in Paris last December, Parties to the UN climate agreement are now turning to the Montreal Protocol for fast near-term mitigation in the pre-2020 period, as described in a recent editorial by Christiana Figueres, head of the UNFCCC secretariat, and Achim Steiner, head of the UN Environment Program.

The HFC amendment is a priority of President Obama, and further efforts to ensure success this year are expected in several other venues, including in New York 22 April when more than 130 countries gather to sign the Paris Agreement.

IGSD’s Primer on HFCs  is here.

IGSD’s Press Alert on the Geneva meeting is here.

 Led UN Environmental Program in early years, guided ozone treaty to unrivaled success

28 March 2016 – Dr. Mostafa Tolba, father of the Montreal Protocol, died today at the age of 93.  Dr. Tolba was a brilliant Egyptian scientist and forceful diplomat who led the United Nations Environment Program for 17 years starting in 1975. “He knew when to push and when to pull and when to lock negotiators in a room until they found a solution to the planet’s early environmental problems,” said Durwood Zaelke, President of the Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development.

“He was a wise leader who more than anyone is responsible for building the world’s most successful environmental treaty, the Montreal Protocol,” Zaelke added. “This treaty solved the first great threat to the global atmosphere and put the stratospheric ozone layer on the path to recovery mid-century by phasing out chemical refrigerants that destroyed the protective ozone in the upper atmosphere.”  (The chemicals were known as CFCs, or chlorofluorocarbons.)

“Dr. Tolba liked to say that the Montreal Protocol was a ‘start and strengthen treaty’, where the parties started modestly, learned how to phase out the damaging chemicals, and quickly gained the confidence they needed to do more,” said Dr. Stephen O. Andersen, also of IGSD, who worked with Dr. Tolba throughout the history of the treaty.

For the Montreal Protocol, this meant building a flexible treaty regime that was amended and adjusted throughout its history, making it stronger each year.  This was possible because both the developing countries and the developed countries have always considered the treaty to be fair.  Developed countries always phased down the damaging chemicals first, always expanded the suite of superior substitutes first, and always funded the incremental costs for developing countries to shift to the new substitutes after a grace period of several years.  The Montreal Protocol was and remains the only treaty ever to achieve universal membership.

Dr. Tolba helped kick off the modern era of the Montreal Protocol in 2007 when he supported the effort to strengthen climate protection under the treaty by accelerating the phase-out of HCFCs, or hydrochlorofluorocarbons, chemicals that replaced the CFCs—explicitly because the HCFCs were causing significant climate warming, as well as destroying ozone.

The earlier CFCs also caused warming, and by phasing them out the treaty provided significant climate protection as a collateral benefit of saving the stratospheric ozone layer.  But the climate protection was little recognized or appreciated, even though the early boycotts of CFCs, followed by national measures in a few developed countries, and then the Montreal Protocol, avoided climate warming that would otherwise have equaled today’s warming from CO2, which is more than half of the total warming of the planet.

Dr. Tolba also was an early supporter of phasing down hydrofluorocarbons, or HFCs, when they were first being introduced to replace the HCFCs. This included supporting the proposed HFC amendment to the Montreal Protocol when he attended the Meeting of Parties in Port Ghalib, Egypt in 2009.

After nearly six years of further study and debate, the HFC amendment is expected to win approval later this year.  It will avoid the equivalent of up to 100 billion tons of CO2 by 2050, and avoid up to 0.5°C of warming by end of century—making it the single biggest piece of climate mitigation available in the near-term, and will continue the momentum of the Paris climate agreement, which will be formally signed 22 April in New York.

Dr. Tolba graduated with honors from Cairo University in 1943, and received a Ph.D. at Imperial College London in 1948. After UNEP he joined the Faculty of Science at Cairo University, where he established a school of microbiology.

UNEP’s press release is here.

According to a new report by the Rhodium Group, implementing an HFC amendment under a “newly reinvigorated Montreal Protocol” will help boost the gap between the US emissions reduction pledge and its trajectory under current policies.

As made clear by the successful Paris Agreement, a new era of international cooperation and action against climate change has been made possible in no small part by the continued efforts of the Obama Administration. Through the implementation of federal climate policies, such as the Clean Power Plan, the US has successfully bent emissions from energy consumption 11% below 2005 level.

According to the Rhodium analysis, current policies will bring US emissions reductions to 23% below 2005 levels by 2025, still short of the US commitment to reduce emissions by 26-28% below 2005 levels by 2025.

Predictions under the “current policy” estimate an increase in HFC emissions of 55% above 2005 levels by 2020 and 85% by 2025. However, Rhodium anticipates that with an HFC amendment to the Montreal Protocol, as well as stringent national policies, HFC emissions would be limited to just 13% above 2005 level in 2020, and 4% by 2025 (see figure 8 & 9).

The “reductions achievable by adoption of the Montreal Protocol amendment to phase down HFCs,” highlight the “importance for near-term efforts by the Obama Administration” in achieving the Paris commitments.