This paper makes the case that faster phasedown of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) to help avert nearterm climate tipping points will be less costly than the existing schedule for both non-Article 5 and Article 5 Parties. In particular, the paper demonstrates that a faster HFC phasedown is less costly for: 1) non-Article 5 donors to the Multilateral Fund for the Implementation of the Montreal Protocol (MLF); 2) new owners of cooling equipment who will benefit from lower cooling and service costs that offset the slightly higher purchase price for which the cost difference can be minimized by a bulk procurement or buyer’s club; 3) neighbourhoods and cities that will experience reduced pollution from fossil fuel power plants, leading to lower health care costs and increased productivity; 4) families and communities who will benefit from electricity savings spent locally on goods and services that support quality of life and prosperity and circulate through the economy; and 5) national governments that will incur lower compliance costs for stratospheric ozone and climate treaty obligations and will fiscally benefit from an improved balance of payments and lower interest rates on borrowing for renewable energy and other public investments. The paper also makes the case that accelerating the HFC phasedown can be less costly to manufacturers of HFC replacement technology through enhancements to brand reputation; environmental, social, and governance (ESG) ranking; and fulfilment of public pledges.
Additionally, the paper finds that lifecycle refrigerant management (LRM) supports the case for a faster phasedown of HFCs, which avoids unnecessary sales of cooling equipment with obsolete HFC refrigerants that requires servicing, and prevents perverse incentives that unintentionally prolong the use of high-global warming potential (GWP) HFCs.
The framework, introduced in 2009 by co-author Professor Johan Rockström and colleagues, defines Planetary Boundaries as the safe operating thresholds for nine critical processes that maintain Earth system stability and resilience. The stratospheric ozone layer is one of the nine processes, and it is highlighted as the first and only example of a planetary system imperiled by humans yet pulled back towards health in the coming decades by collective action of scientists, consumer boycotts, public policy, and technical innovation. This paper explains how policymakers, facing an existential risk from fluorocarbon emissions, listened to science and acted at a global level with adoption of the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer (Montreal Protocol) that, along with complementary actions by citizen and corporate leaders, avoided health and environmental hazards of stratospheric ozone depletion. The paper also explains how the Montreal Protocol has delayed climate tipping points through:
1) the phaseout of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) that are also powerful greenhouse gases (GHGs),
2) the ongoing phasedown of non-ozone-depleting hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) GHGs, and;
3) the associated protection of aquatic and terrestrial carbon sinks from ultraviolet (UV) radiation.
The Montreal Protocol is proof that humans can organize to protect the global commons against exceeding planetary boundaries. The paper shows how it is possible to restore the health of other planetary boundaries beyond stratospheric ozone and climate by using the Montreal Protocol’s successful model of trusted scientific and technical wisdom, deep human connections, and a commitment to fairness.
Includes a Case Study of MAC Secondary-Loop Architecture Vital to Economic and Environmental Performance of All-Electric Vehicles.
This publication offers the back and front story, the timeline, and the comprehensive bibliography of leadership in the full spectrum of environmentally improved motor vehicle air conditioning, including ozone-safe and climate-friendly refrigerants, leak-tight systems, repair before recharge with recovery and recycle, energy efficiency, and end-of-life recovery and recycle or destruction. It also elaborates on the partnerships that developed secondary-loop motor vehicle air conditioning (SL-MAC), which is a powerful driver of improved performance of all-electric vehicles that are necessary to avoid climate tipping points. The co-authors are insiders to this technical breakthrough.
SL-MAC technology developed through collaboration between government and industry is almost patent-free and is easily adaptable to the special circumstances of passenger and commercial vehicles, small or large, on-road or off-road, and internal combustion, hybrid, or all-electric.
By phasing out production and consumption of most ozone-depleting substances (ODSs), the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer (Montreal Protocol) has avoided consequences of increased ultraviolet (UV) radiation and will restore stratospheric ozone to pre-1980 conditions by mid-century, assuming compliance with the phaseout. However, several studies have documented an unexpected increase in emissions and suggested unreported production of trichlorofluoromethane (CFC-11) and potentially other ODSs after 2012 despite production phaseouts under the Montreal Protocol. Furthermore, because most ODSs are powerful greenhouse gases (GHGs), there are significant climate protection benefits in collecting and destroying the substantial quantities of historically allowed production of chemicals under the Montreal Protocol that are contained in existing equipment and products and referred to as ODS “banks”. This technical note presents a framework for considering offsets to ozone depletion, climate forcing, and other environmental impacts arising from occurrences of unexpected emissions and unreported production of Montreal Protocol controlled substances, as recently experienced and likely to be experienced again. We also show how this methodology could be applied to the destruction of banks of controlled ODSs and GHGs or to halon or other production allowed under a Montreal Protocol Essential Use Exemption or Critical Use Exemption. Further, we roughly estimate the magnitude of offset each type of action could provide for ozone depletion, climate, and other environmental impacts that Montreal Protocol Parties agree warrant remedial action.
This paper recalls and documents the military leadership under the Montreal Protocol, presents indicative case studies of how technical performance of military systems was maintained or improved by adopting newer technologies and summarizes key lessons from military leadership in protecting the ozone layer. In addition to collaboration on technology development and demonstration, between 1991 and 2009, military organizations from various countries came together to conduct seven workshops specifically to review military ODS uses, share experiences with alternatives, and compare policy approaches to extract and share best practices. Lessons such as this can be applied to developing and adopting technologies that displace the need to emit greenhouse gas while improving the performance of military systems and reducing operating costs.
Environmentally harmful product dumping (“environmental dumping”) of new and used low-efficiency cooling appliances with obsolete ozone-depleting and greenhouse gas refrigerants in African countries impoverishes communities, hinders economic development, threatens ecological systems, and harms public health. The use of lowefficiency cooling appliances increases energy demand, leading to higher power plant emissions and limiting affordable energy access in African countries. These low-efficiency appliances and products contain ozone-depleting refrigerants with high global-warming potential (GWP) or ozone-safe refrigerants with high GWP. Environmental dumping of these appliances and products makes it more difficult for countries to meet their international climate obligations and for the world to meet the Paris Agreement’s climate change mitigation targets. Ghana faces high levels of environmental dumping, despite a national ban on importing used cooling appliances and established efficiency standards for new air conditioners and refrigerators. Through the Energy Commission’s Office of Renewable Energy, Energy Efficiency, & Climate Change (REEECC), the government of Ghana is partnering with the Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development (IGSD) to stop environmental dumping. This article provides a list of interventions that can be implemented by Ghana, by governments in countries that export to Ghana, and by industry and other stakeholders. Notably, these actions focus on the shared responsibility of exporting countries and manufacturers by calling on exporting countries to update and enhance enforcement of their laws, and on global manufacturers to stop exporting inefficient products with obsolete refrigerants to Ghana and other African countries.
Demand for hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) refrigerants used as substitutes for ozone-depleting substances is growing in India and is estimated to continue growing at a high rate through the middle of this century. HFCs, although not directly ozone-depleting, are highly potent greenhouse gases subject to a global phasedown under the 2016 Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer. As of 20 January 2022, 130 Parties have ratified the Kigali Amendment, including India. This analysis evaluates scenarios for India’s HFC demand trajectory compared to likely control obligations under the Kigali Amendment. It is based on current and projected markets for HFC-using equipment and types of refrigerants utilized now and likely to be used in the future. Sectors considered in this work include mobile air conditioning, stationary air conditioning, refrigeration, and foam blowing agents. Results suggest that India’s annual HFC demand under current market trends could reach 76 MMT CO2-equivalent (CO2e) in 2030 and 197 MMT CO2e in 2050, from 23 MMT CO2e in 2020, making no changes to the current mix of HFCs in use. The Kigali Amendment requires for compliance that India freeze its HFC consumption in 2028 at a projected level of 59–65 MMT CO2e and phase down progressively over the following 29 years; in that case, annual Indian HFC demand would peak in 2030 at a projected 57 MMT CO2e and fall to 8 MMT CO2e by 2050. This trajectory would avoid cumulative HFC use of 2.2 GT CO2e through 2050 versus the current market trends. If actions are taken to accelerate the refrigerant transition in stationary air conditioning by five years, India could peak its annual HFC demand by 2028 at 40 MMT CO2e and avoid additional cumulative HFC demand of 337 MMT CO2e between 2025 and 2050, exceeding its obligations under the Kigali Amendment.
This evaluation identifies the 12 papers that formed the scientific foundation for the Montreal Protocol parties to take bold steps to phase down HFCs via the Kigali Amendment. These thoroughly researched and clearly presented scientific papers, which were among those contributing to SAP presentations at Meetings of the Parties and were directly read and considered by treaty negotiators from party countries, made the link between HFCs and climate change apparent and persuaded skeptics and stakeholders to take action. All told, the coauthors of these dozen papers include about 40 scientists from 10 countries, reflecting the substantial degree of international attention to the problems posed by HFCs and scientific collaboration to address them.
This paper addresses what has been described as a primary concern related to patents: even if chemical companies in Montreal Protocol Article 5 Parties can develop their own methods of producing low-GWP refrigerant hydrofluoroolefin (HFO) or using them in the products they make, they could be prevented (absent a license) from selling their products at home and in key markets abroad in countries where restrictive patents have been granted to other companies, at least until the time when challenges to patents are decided or these patents expire.
This paper reviews the status of patents granted on HFO-1234yf in automotive air conditioning (AC) in the US, Europe, and China, covering the largest automotive manufacturing regions in the world. This paper primarily focuses on patents on the use of HFO-1234yf in automobiles, as opposed to patents on the manufacture of HFO-1234yf.
