The remaining carbon budget framework tracks progress towards the Paris Agreement’s goal to limit longer-term warming to well below 2 °C, but no analogous framework exists for constraining mid-century warming. Established single-basket methods of combining gases into CO2-equivalents using Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) lead to ambiguity over what combination of short- and long-lived emissions reductions are needed because they obscure the distinct warming impacts of each. We investigate to what extent a multi-basket approach that separates short-lived and long-lived pollutants can better estimate the likelihood for emission pathways to meet a near-term warming goal. We develop logistic regression models to categorize IPCC emission pathways (AR6) based on whether they exceed a mid-century temperature threshold. We focus on two baskets, using CO2 for long-lived and methane (CH4) for short-lived gases. For comparison, we consider several single-basket approaches (e.g. GWP100, GWP20, GWP*). We further apply our framework to a synthetic dataset covering a broader emissions space. Across both datasets, the two-basket outperforms all single-baskets. Using an illustrative near-term goal (1.7 °C), the two-basket approach reduces the magnitude of overshoot by a factor of 7 compared with the traditional single-basket. The two-basket’s advantage is smaller with the AR6 pathways, which we attribute to the high correlation between CO2 and CH4 emissions and confounding effects from other pollutants. Our results indicate that the two-basket approach better constrains overshoot magnitude, particularly if future emissions deviate from the AR6 assumption of correlated CO2 and CH4 reductions. Our approach allows the determination of a metric value and reduction target in the context of a chosen set of scenarios and temperature threshold; the outcome is a near-term methane-specific emissions budget that can be adopted by decisionmakers in a way that is analogous and complementary to the carbon budget. Future work could consider a third basket for very short-lived pollutants.
Anthropogenic methane (CH4) emissions increases from the period 1850–1900 until 2019 are responsible for around 65% as much warming as carbon dioxide (CO2) has caused to date, and large reductions in methane emissions are required to limit global warming to 1.5°C or 2°C. However, methane emissions have been increasing rapidly since ~2006. This study shows that emissions are expected to continue to increase over the remainder of the 2020s if no greater action is taken and that increases in atmospheric methane are thus far outpacing projected growth rates. This increase has important implications for reaching net zero CO2 targets: every 50 Mt CH4 of the sustained large cuts envisioned under low-warming scenarios that are not realized would eliminate about 150 Gt of the remaining CO2 budget. Targeted methane reductions are therefore a critical component alongside decarbonization to minimize global warming. We describe additional linkages between methane mitigation options and CO2, especially via land use, as well as their respective climate impacts and associated metrics. We explain why a net zero target specifically for methane is neither necessary nor plausible. Analyses show where reductions are most feasible at the national and sectoral levels given limited resources, for example, to meet the Global Methane Pledge target, but they also reveal large uncertainties. Despite these uncertainties, many mitigation costs are clearly low relative to real-world financial instruments and very low compared with methane damage estimates, but legally binding regulations and methane pricing are needed to meet climate goals.
Full citation: Shindell D, Sadavarte P, Aben I, Bredariol TdO, Dreyfus G, Höglund-Isaksson L, Poulter B, Saunois M, Schmidt GA, Szopa S, Rentz K, Parsons L, Qu Z, Faluvegi G and Maasakkers JD. The methane imperative. Front Sci (2024) 2:1349770. doi: 10.3389/fsci.2024.1349770
Climate change poses an existential threat to humankind. The intertwined nature of climate change and human rights becomes apparent as we witness the adverse effects on various dimensions of human life. To address the climate emergency, we must slow down the rate of warming as much as possible as quickly as possible. Only a dual strategy to reduce both non-carbon dioxide super climate pollutants and carbon dioxide (CO2) can keep global temperatures within safe limits and protect human rights for present and future generations. This Brief outlines how the climate emergency is a challenge of temperature, tipping points, and time.
Also available in Spanish and Portuguese.
Cutting methane emissions is the fastest way to slow warming in the near term and keep the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C within reach. Methane plays an increasingly important role in China’s responses to climate change. This paper reviews a number of measures aimed at reducing its methane emissions China has adopted over the past few years and outlines significant opportunities remaining to maximize China’s climate mitigation impact.
By phasing out production and consumption of most ozone-depleting substances (ODSs), the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer (Montreal Protocol) has avoided consequences of increased ultraviolet (UV) radiation and will restore stratospheric ozone to pre-1980 conditions by mid-century, assuming compliance with the phaseout. However, several studies have documented an unexpected increase in emissions and suggested unreported production of trichlorofluoromethane (CFC-11) and potentially other ODSs after 2012 despite production phaseouts under the Montreal Protocol. Furthermore, because most ODSs are powerful greenhouse gases (GHGs), there are significant climate protection benefits in collecting and destroying the substantial quantities of historically allowed production of chemicals under the Montreal Protocol that are contained in existing equipment and products and referred to as ODS “banks”. This technical note presents a framework for considering offsets to ozone depletion, climate forcing, and other environmental impacts arising from occurrences of unexpected emissions and unreported production of Montreal Protocol controlled substances, as recently experienced and likely to be experienced again. We also show how this methodology could be applied to the destruction of banks of controlled ODSs and GHGs or to halon or other production allowed under a Montreal Protocol Essential Use Exemption or Critical Use Exemption. Further, we roughly estimate the magnitude of offset each type of action could provide for ozone depletion, climate, and other environmental impacts that Montreal Protocol Parties agree warrant remedial action.
Fast action to mitigate non-CO2 climate pollutants, such as methane, including through implementing methane intensity requirements (such as via procurement specifications) for domestic and imported oil and gas, can have a significant role in reducing the likelihood of triggering catastrophic climate impacts as countries pursue carbon-neutrality goals. Without robust monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) of methane emissions, we will not be able to know the efficacy of methane mitigation policies and programs or whether we are meeting methane mitigation targets. Acting quickly to ensure that new investments in oil and gas infrastructure are built with enhanced MRV systems and methane intensity requirements in mind is essential to limiting risks of stranded assets and aligning with carbon-neutrality goals.
The Global Cooling Watch report, Keeping it Chill: How to meet cooling demands while cutting emissions – by the UN Environment Programme-led Cool Coalition – lays out sustainable cooling measures in three areas: passive cooling, higher-energy efficiency standards, and a faster phase down of climate-warming refrigerants. The report is released in support of the Global Cooling Pledge, a joint initiative between the United Arab Emirates as host of COP28 and the Cool Coalition.
IGSD Chief Scientist Dr. Gabrielle Dreyfus served as the lead topical author of the chapter on refrigerants.
This paper reviews MLF accomplishments, summarizes TEAP assessment of funding required to replenish MLF, and offers analyses of the benefits that could be achieved with more funding.
In an effort to provide insight into six Southeast Asian (SEA) markets at risk of environmental dumping, CLASP and IGSD assessed the RAC markets for Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. The six countries represent 90% of the regional SEA market.
Currently energy efficiency policies in Southeast Asia lag behind the innovation in RAC technology and the policies of surrounding countries. As low-efficiency and high global warming potential refrigerants are banned in markets around the world, SEA is at risk of becoming a dumping ground for obsolete appliances manufactured by multinational companies that are banned in their own domestic markets. Rolling out and enforcing national energy efficiency policies coupled with accompanying measures would halt this trend.
