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Reduction of Short-Lived Climate Pollutants Will Slow Sea-Level Rise and Other Powerful Feedback Mechanisms

Vatican, 18 June 2015 – The Pope’s efforts to protect climate and the environment, especially for the world’s most poor and vulnerable peoples, depends on the success of urgent action including reduction of both short-lived climate pollutants and long-lived CO2 emissions. In the encyclical released today, Pope Francis reminded the world that if present trends continue, including the ongoing release of greenhouses gases such as the short-lived pollutant methane, “this century may well witness extraordinary climate change and an unprecedented destruction of ecosystems, with serious consequences for all of us.”

The mitigation of short-lived climate pollutants, which includes methane, black carbon, HFCs and ground-level ozone, the main component of urban smog, is estimated to have the potential to reduce cumulative sea-level rise by 22–42% by end of the century and reduce the near-term risk of setting off more powerful feedback mechanisms, which then accelerates global warming.  The encyclical warns that, “a rise in the sea level, for example, can create extremely serious situations, if we consider that a quarter of the world’s population lives on the coast or nearby, and that the majority of our megacities are situated in coastal areas.” The Vatican document which is intended to address the question of climate change and humankind’s role both generating and reversing the effects of global warming, underlines the Church’s role in serving those most susceptible to climate impacts. 

The encyclical cites the large spectrum of health effects and millions of premature deaths, in particular to the most poor, caused by air pollution including black carbon emissions or “smoke,” another short-lived climate pollutant.  “People take sick, for example, from breathing high levels of smoke from fuels used in cooking or heating.”  According to the Climate and Clean Air Coalition to Reduce Short-Lived Climate Pollutants’ (CCAC) “targeting methane and black carbon rich sources, which if deployed globally by 2030 could avoid about 0.5°C of additional warming by 2050, prevent approximately 2.4 million deaths annually…and avoid about 50 million tonnes of lost crop yields by reducing concentrations of ground level ozone.”

“Pope Francis understands the positive impact that cutting short-lived climate pollutants will have on the poor and the vulnerable. Reduction of short-lived climate pollutants will reduce the immediate damages of climate change, including sea-level rise and extreme weather conditions that are most often suffered by the poorest populations,” said Romina Picolotti, former Minister of Environment from Argentina and CCAC NGO Representative. The CCAC is the only international organization focused on reducing the package of short-lived climate pollutants. Formed three years ago, the CCAC now has 47 country partners, and 54 nongovernmental organizations including the World Bank, UNEP, UNDP and WHO.

The encyclical released today is considered the most formal declaration the Pope can make and is anticipated to be read by 1.2 billion Catholics worldwide.  The timing of his campaign on climate change is strategically designed to coincide with the UN climate negotiations this December, calling politicians and the population to action. Following the release of the encyclical, the Pope plans to address both the United Nations and a joint congress session during his September visit to the U.S.  Last week leaders of the richest economies in the world sent a message similar to the Pope’s in the G7 Summit declaration, underscoring the importance of cutting short-lived climate pollutants by vowing to continue “efforts to phase down hydrofluorocarbons and call[ing] on all donors to assist developing countries in implantation.” 

“If political leaders take heed of the Pope’s counsel to take fast action to cut short-lived climate pollutants in the December UN Climate Negotiations, we can cut the rate of global warming in half and Artic warming by two-thirds in the near term through mid-century. We can also improve food security and save several million lives a year now lost to these climate pollutants,” said Durwood Zaelke, President of the Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development.

IGSD’s Primer on SLCPs is here

Urges donors to assist with fast implementation

Bavaria, Germany, 8 June 2015 – The Group of Seven leaders agreed today to “continue our efforts to phase down hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and call on all Parties to the Montreal Protocol to negotiate an amendment this year to phase down HFCs and on donors to assist developing countries in its implementation.”

“The odds of a successful HFC amendment this year just went from a long shot to the favorite, although maybe not yet the odds for American Pharoah,” said Durwood Zaelke, President of the Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development.  “The G7 just put the spotlight on success this year, and up’ed the ante with the prospects of further funding for fast implementation.”

“The amendment will deliver the biggest single piece of climate mitigation in the near term,” Zaelke added.  “When expected energy efficiency gains from air conditioners and other appliances are added, this strategy becomes even more compelling.”

HFCs, which are short-lived climate pollutants used primarily as coolants in air conditioners, are currently the fastest growing climate pollutant in the world.  A phase down of HFCs this year under the Montreal Protocol can avoid the equivalent of 100 (87-146) billion tonnes of carbon dioxide by mid-century, and avoid up to 0.5°C of warming by the end of the century.  Fast implementation of the HFC amendment can increase the mitigation by 39 and 64 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent.  Improving energy efficiency of air conditioners and appliances that use HFCs can save enough electricity to avoid building up to 1,900 medium-sized power plants in the next 15 years, according to preliminary results from the Lawrence Berkeley National Lab.

The Montreal Protocol has already successfully phased out nearly 100 similar ozone-depleting chemicals by almost 100% in UN participating countries, avoiding an equivalent of an estimated 9.5 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions per year.

Formal negotiations are expected to start at the next Montreal Protocol Open Ended Working Group in Paris this July, and an amendment agreement could be concluded as soon as November this year during the Meeting of the Parties in United Arab Emirates. Support for the phase down is rapidly growing, as India, the U.S., Canada and Mexico, the EU, and eight pacific Island states led by the Federated States of Micronesia and the Philippines, have all submitted formal amendment proposals this year. The Africa Group also has submitted its own draft, and has become a forceful champion of the HFC amendment.

“An agreement this November to phase down HFCs would provide a tremendous boost to the UN climate negotiations that are aiming for their own agreement in Paris in December,” Zaelke added.

The G7 Communique is here.

IGSD’s HFC Primer is here.

Only dual strategy with CO2 can avoid breaching 2°C barrier

Washington, DC, 28 May 2015 – A new study released by Oxford University today reaffirms that cutting short-lived climate pollutants may “be a more cost-effective way to limit the rate of climate change over the coming decades to ensure that ecosystems, food production and the economy can adapt, which also has a role in avoiding dangerous climate change” in the long-term.

The study, which focuses on emissions metrics for comparing different climate pollutants, also concludes that immediate and simultaneous reductions of both short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) and CO2 is the best method for keeping the climate safe.

The paper, by Professor Myles Allen, explains that the dual CO2 + SLCP strategy is needed to meet the objectives of the current UN climate treaty, which states in Article 2:

“The ultimate objective of this Convention [is] stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.”

“We don’t need to choose between cutting CO2 and cutting short-lived climate pollutants.  We can and must do both,” said Durwood Zaelke, President of the Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development.  “The bottom line is that aggressive reductions in both CO2 and short-lived climate pollutants are necessary to avoid dangerous climate impacts in the near and long-term.”

According to Zaelke, cutting SLCPs to slow near-term warming has several benefits.  “First it reduces immediate climate damage, often suffered most by poorer countries, including sea level rise and more powerful storm surges and other extreme weather events.  According to research led by V. Ramanathan, cutting short-lived climate pollutants could avoid up to 0.6°C of warming by mid-century, compared to 0.1°C for CO2, and up to 1.5°C of warming by end of century, compared to 1.1°C for CO2.  The cuts to SLCPs could slow the annual rate of sea-level rise by up to 50% by end of century. Second, reducing near term warming reduces the risk of setting off more powerful feedback mechanisms such as the melting of permafrost and the release of methane, which then accelerates global warming.”

The study notes that “Many measures required to reduce short-lived climate pollutant emissions, such as reducing soot emissions from biomass burning and coal-fired power plants, would also have significant co-benefits for human health and welfare, making them much easier to achieve politically.” Zaelke explains that, “Many of these actions to cut short-lived climate pollutants will simultaneously cut CO2.  According to the Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, embracing super-efficient air conditioners while phasing down hydrofluorocarbons refrigerants, as India recently proposed doing under the Montreal Protocol, could effectively double the climate mitigation from avoiding HFC refrigerants and could save enough electricity to avoid building up to 120 medium sized power plants in India in the next 15 years.”

The Allen study raises the question whether some governments may feel they need to make a choice between CO2 mitigation or cutting short-lived climate pollutants.  Zaelke states that, “the empirical evidence is to the contrary, as many governments are already taking action to cut their air pollution while also increasing efforts to reduce CO2 by protecting forest protection, expanding renewables, and improving the efficiency of products and equipment that use fossil fuels.  China, for example, has a new air pollution law and announced plans to invest nearly $300 billion to clean the air, largely to protect public health and cut the air pollution death rate, which now exceeds two million citizens every year.”

Parties to the Montreal Protocol will meet later this year to continue negotiations on phasing down HFCs, the powerful greenhouse gas that is one of four short-lived climate pollutants, along with black carbon soot, methane, and tropospheric ozone, the main component of urban smog.  Support for the HFC amendment is growing, as India, the U.S., Canada and Mexico, the EU, and eight pacific Island states, have all submitted formal amendment proposals this year.  An agreement Montreal Protocol Meeting of Parties this November to phasedown HFCs would avoid the equivalent of up to 100 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide by mid-century, and avoid up to 0.5°C by end of the century, along with significant energy efficiency and further CO2 mitigation from improvements in energy efficiency of air conditioners and other appliances.  Additionally, concluding the HFC amendment would build political momentum for the UN climate negotiations in Paris this December, where a new climate deal may be concluded, to take effect in 2020.

Myles Allen, Short-Lived Promise? The Science and Policy of Cumulative Short-Lived Climate Pollutants

IGSD’s  Primer on SLCPs

IGSD’s  Primer on HFCs

Climate and Clean Air Coalition’s five-year strategic framework aims to avoid 0.6° C of warming by 2050

High-Level Assembly of ministers endorses cutting HFCs under Montreal Protocol California rallies cities and states

21 May 2015 – A five-year strategic framework adopted today by the Climate and Clean Air Coalition will scale up fast mitigation by cutting short-lived climate pollutants, in an effort to help keep global warming to less than 2°C above pre-Industrial levels.  Studies show that fast reduction of the short-lived climate pollutants can cut the rate of global warming in half and avoid 0.6°C of warming by 2050. Short-lived climate pollutants include black carbon, ground-level ozone, methane, and HFCs.  The five-year strategic framework also will save many millions of lives.  According to the World Health Organization, seven million people die every year from air pollution, principally black carbon and ground-level ozone.

The United States pledged $4 million and Norway more than a million to fund further Coalition work, in support of the five-year strategy, which will be finalized in Paris in December.

The Coalition’s High-Level Assembly of ministers endorsed cutting production of HFCs under the Montreal Protocol, leaving accounting and reporting of emissions in the UN climate regime. The High-Level Assembly emphasized the importance of moving forward with the proposed HFC cuts under the Montreal Protocol when the Parties meet in July at their Open-Ended Working Group.

Chile announced that it would follow Mexico’s lead and include reductions of black carbon as they develop their “intended nationally determined contributions” to climate mitigation in the run-up to the UN climate negotiations in Paris in December, when a new climate deal is anticipated, with the goal of taking effect in 2020.

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon stated that “steps to address short-lived climate pollutants are now seen as an essential complement of the aggressive mitigation actions needed to combat climate change,” in his opening statement at the High-Level Assembly.  “The Coalition’s mobilization of concrete actions to reduce emissions by 2020 promises high-impact results. These efforts will protect the climate, our environment and improve the health and lives of people across the globe.”

“The Coalition, which the member countries refer to as ‘the coalition of the working,’ shows what can be done by a small group of committed actors,” said Romina Picolotti, former Minister of Environment from Argentina.  “The Coalition is targeting specific sectors such as black carbon from transport and brick kilns, and sharing technology, regulatory experience, and funding to help country partners make fast progress.  Our success is giving us the confidence to increase our ambition so we can deliver the full climate protection at a global scale.”

The Coalition is the only international organization focused on reducing short-lived climate pollutants as a package. HFCs are used primarily as refrigerants, and methane comes from oil and gas exploration and transmission, landfills, agriculture, and coal mines.  The Coalition has 47 country partners, along with the World Bank, UNEP, UNDP and WHO, as well as 57 nongovernmental organizations as partners.

Earlier this week California and 11 other subnational government leaders, representing over 100 million people, agreed to take action to keep the global average temperature below the 2°C guardrail for the most dangerous climate impacts, including by cutting short-lived climate pollutants.  The “Under 2 MOU” agreement was signed by leaders of California, Oregon, Washington and Vermont, Baja California and Jalisco Mexico, British Columbia and Ontario Canada, Catalonia Spain, Wales UK, Arce Brazil, and Baden-Württemberg, Germany, and pledges reductions of greenhouse gas emissions 80 to 95 percent below 1990 levels by 2050 or per capita annual emission target of less than two metric tons by 2050.

California also released a draft concept paper earlier this month describing how the state plans to aggressively reduce short lived climate pollutants, which the paper notes are responsible for as much as 40% of current global warming.

“California once again is showing the world a better future by coupling fast mitigation from cuts in short-lived climate pollutants with longer-term mitigation from cuts in carbon dioxide,” said Durwood Zaelke, President of the Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development. “We can’t win the climate challenge without first winning the battle against air pollution and HFCs, which can provide the fastest mitigation in the near-term.”

IGSD’s Primer on Short-Lived Climate Pollutants is here.

IGSD’s Primer on HFCs is here.

8 countries co-sponsor amendment to phase down potent greenhouse gas

1 May 2015 – Today eight Pacific Island States submitted a formal proposal to amend the Montreal Protocol Ozone Treaty to phase down hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), the manmade greenhouse gases used in refrigerators and air conditioners.  Led by the Federated States of Micronesia, which along with Mauritius was the first country to propose reducing HFCs under the Montreal Protocol in 2009, the group of amendment co-sponsors this year includes Kiribati, the Marshall Islands, Mauritius, Palau, the Philippines, Samoa and Solomon Islands.  The islands are urging fast climate protection to slow temperature and sea-level rise, and to reduce the intensity of storm surges and typhoons.

“Cutting HFCs, can reduce sea-level rise faster than any other strategy by avoiding the equivalent of up to 100 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide by mid-century, and up to 0.5°C by the end of the century,” said Durwood Zaelke, President of the Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development. “The island States recognize that the HFC amendment is the world’s best near-term plan to slow climate change, making it a top priority for many countries already suffering climate impacts.”  In early April FSM was hit by category five, super-typhoon Maysak, leaving thousands displaced. In 2013, one of the strongest typhoons ever recorded, Yolanda, hit the Philippines killing more than 6,300.

“There is no way the world can achieve its agreed temperature stabilization goals if HFCs alone contribute warming of a half a degree Celsius by the end of the century,” said Andrew Yatilman, Micronesia’s Director of Environment and Emergency Management. “HFCs could represent 10-15% of global climate forcing by mid-century.  We have the potential to take this projected forcing completely out of the system.” 

Achieving an early climate win in the Montreal Protocol at the November Meeting of the Parties in Dubai would also bode well for a global climate agreement expected to be finalized during negotiations in Paris in December, Yatilman said. “Locking in an agreement in Dubai to prevent billions of tons of emissions would be the perfect cornerstone for a broader climate agreement in Paris.”

Support for the amendment is rapidly increasing.  This year, India switched its previous opposition and for the first time presented a formal proposal to cut HFCs.  At the extraordinary Montreal Protocol meeting last month in Bangkok, the 54 countries of Africa called for an immediate start to formal negotiations to cut HFCs.

Reducing HFCs has been a priority on President Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry’s climate agenda.  “It is essential that we get a buy-in on this,” John Kerry told the Washington Post last week, “because HFCs are one of the most dangerous greenhouse gases on Earth — far more damaging and potent that carbon dioxide.”  The U.S., Mexico and Canada re-submitted their proposal for the 6th year in a row.  The E.U. has also filed a formal amendment proposal for the first time.  Some countries have also included HFC cuts in their intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) to climate protection under the UN process, which is aiming for a separate agreement in Paris in December.

Formal negotiations are expected to start at the next Montreal Protocol Open Ended Working Group in Paris this July, following further inter-sessional negotiating sessions agreed to last month in Bangkok.  The Montreal Protocol has already successfully phased out over 100 ozone-depleting substances, avoiding an equivalent of an estimated 9.5 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions per year. Fast implementation of the HFC amendment can add the equivalent of up to 64 billion tonnes of CO2 mitigation, and, according to a new analysis by Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, countries can double their contribution to climate protection by improving the efficiency of air conditioners when they cut use of HFCs.

Emerges as leader of effort launched first by Island States

US, Europe support using Montreal Protocol to fight climate pollution

Bangkok, 24 April 2015 – Parties to the Montreal Protocol agreed today to inter-sessional meetings to ensure a path to finalizing an amendment this November to cut hydrofluorocarbons, or HFCs.  These chemicals were previously favored as coolants in air conditioners, but are now recognized as one of the world’s most dangerous climate pollutants.  Today’s agreement was reached during a week when heat sored to nearly 40°C in Bangkok, and demand for electricity broke records as people cranked up their air conditioners to keep cool.

HFCs are the fastest growing climate pollutant, and cutting them can avoid the equivalent of up to 100 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide by mid-century, and avoid up to 0.5°C by century’s end.  “The Montreal Protocol can deliver the biggest, fastest, and probably the cheapest climate protection available to the world in the near term,” said Durwood Zaelke, President of the Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development. “The Montreal Protocol has already phased out nearly 100 similar chemicals by nearly 100%, has all UN countries participating, and is widely recognized as the world’s most successful environmental treaty.”

Senegal, on behalf of the 54 countries of Africa, emerged as the new leader calling for an immediate start to the formal negotiations to cut the HFCs.  The continent of Africa is warming at one and a half times the global rate, and already suffering devastating droughts and other climate induced impacts.

India also switched its previous opposition and for the first time presented a formal proposal to cut HFCs.  This followed an agreement earlier this year between President Obama and Prime Minister Modi.  The US, Mexico, and Canada re-submitted their proposal to cut HFCs under the Montreal Protocol, as they have done for the past six years.  Other proposals are expected from the Federated States of Micronesia, the island country that first proposed using the Montreal Protocol to cut HFCs.  The EU also indicated that it will be submitting its own HFC proposal.

A small group of Gulf countries initially objected to starting formal negotiations, repeating a series of questions that most countries were confident had been answered sufficiently over the previous six years of discussions about cutting HFCs. In the end, the Gulf countries were forced to compromise and agreed to pursue inter-sessional meetings to set the terms for the formal negotiations, which are expected to start in Paris in late July and conclude at the Meeting of the Parties in early November in UAE.

“Thanks to the African group, the table is now set for success this year,” said Zaelke.  “Senegal and its allies in Africa demonstrated the skill and courage needed finish the HFC amendment.” He added, “The headline will be ‘World Eliminated Climate Damage from One of Six Main Climate Pollutants.’ Success will provide a powerful boost to the parallel UN climate negotiations scheduled to conclude in Paris in December, as well as critical near-term protection.”  Any climate agreement in Paris will not take effect until 2020.

Air conditioners using HFCs as coolants also contribute to climate change from the electricity they use, when it is generated by coal, oil, natural gas, or wood, as is most often the case.  Some air conditioners use much more electricity than others, and cutting out the inefficiencies can reduce electricity use by 40 to 50%.  This reduces emissions of carbon dioxide and other air pollutants, and cuts the consumer’s operating cost.

According to new analysis presented earlier in the week by Dr. Nihar Shah of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory in California, countries can double their contribution to climate protection by improving the efficiency of air conditioners when they cut their use of HFCs. In India, for example, requiring energy efficient air conditioning can save enough energy to avoid building 120 medium-sized power plants in the next 15 years, at a savings estimated at $60 billion in capital costs.

Some countries are already including the HFC cuts in their “intended nationally determined contributions” to climate protection under the UN process that is aiming for a separate climate agreement in Paris in December.

Proposes phasing down HFCs under Montreal Protocol

Can provide powerful mitigation, and momentum for Paris climate negotiations

16 April 2015 – Today India made a formal proposal to amend the Montreal Protocol to phase down the super greenhouse gas, HFCs, used primarily as refrigerants and to make insulating foams, reversing several years of opposition that only began to thaw after the election of Prime Minister Modi.

“Prime Minister Modi is emerging as a leading climate voice on the global stage, and the India HFC proposal is concrete evidence of both his conviction and his sophistication,” said Durwood Zaelke, President of the Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development.

Prime Minister Modi and President Obama discussed the need to phase down HFCs for the extraordinary climate protection this would provide the world, first during their meeting at the White House and again in Delhi at the Republic Day celebration earlier this year.

President Obama has also taken the lead in bilateral negotiations on HFCs with President Xi in China, and won his support as well.  The US, with Canada and Mexico, submitted its own version of a proposed HFC amendment earlier this week.

The Africa group, representing 54 countries, endorsed the HFC phase down under the Montreal Protocol at their ministerial meeting in Cairo in March, with Senegal championing the effort.  Senegal has since requested that formal negotiations begin on the HFC proposals.

“Success with the HFC amendment will provide the biggest, fastest, cheapest, and most reliable climate mitigation in the near-term,” added Zaelke.  “It also will build critical momentum for a successful outcome in Paris for the climate negotiations in December, and complement what is expected to be an agreement where all countries participate by pledging to attack climate pollutants at their own pace.”

The HFC phase down can provide mitigation equivalent to 100 billion tonnes of CO2 by 2050 and avoid up to 0.5°C of warming by end of century.  Fast implementation of an HFC amendment can add the equivalent to up to 64 billion tonnes of CO2 more.  A simultaneous effort to embrace super-efficient appliances in India, including room air conditioners, can effectively double the climate mitigation from phasing down HFCs, according to an analysis by Lawrence Berkeley National Lab.  “The analysis shows that moving to super-efficient room air conditioners can save enough electricity to avoid building up to 120 medium sized power plants in the next 15 years,” said Zaelke.

All UN countries are parties to the Montreal Protocol, making it the only treaty with universal membership.  Over the 28 years of the treaty’s operation, it has already solved a significant part of climate change by phasing out other fluorinated gases, including CFCs and HCFCs.

The Montreal Protocol parties are holding an extra-ordinary meeting in Bangkok next week.  A second meeting will be held in late July in Paris, and the final Meeting of the Parties will be in UAE the first week of November.

IGSD’s Primer on HFC is here.

Tremendous power sector benefits from improved energy efficiency and climate-friendly refrigerants

7 April 2015 – Switching to refrigerants with lower global warming potential (GWP) could reduce energy consumption by India’s residential air conditioning sector by 15%, boost the country’s economy, and help India meet its energy security and climate goals.  Commercially available alternatives for room air conditioning with lower GWP and greater energy efficiency (based on Life Cycle Climate Performance (LCCP)) are described  in a new report “Reducing Stress on India’s Energy Grid: The Power Sector Benefits of Transitioning to Lower Global Warming Potential and Energy Efficient Refrigerants in Room Air Conditioners,” jointly issued by the Natural Resources Defense Council, the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW), and the Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development (IGSD).

India’s air conditioning market is one of the world’s fastest growing and is expected to expand rapidly as incomes rise and temperatures increase as a result of climate warming. Research by the Lawrence Berkeley National Lab calculates that the total stock of room air conditioners in India will increase by 2,800% from 2010 to 2030, and the associated electricity consumption will grow by 2,887% from 2010 to 2030. Air conditioning already represents 40% of electricity use in Mumbai and 60% in New Delhi, causing frequent power outages.

Energy efficiency can reduce outages and increase the reliability of electric power across India while improving air quality. India’s Power Minister announced in 2014 a goal of achieving uninterrupted access to energy for homes, industry and commercial buildings within five years, a very ambitious goal, especially in a country where 400 million people currently do not have electricity. “Efficient use of energy and its conservation is the least-cost option to meet the increasing energy demand,” says the Ministry of Power’s Bureau of Energy Efficiency (BEE) in the report.

Currently, most room air conditioners in India use hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC)-22, which is scheduled for phaseout under the Montreal Protocol. Going directly to R-290 (propane), which has a GWP of less than 5, or HFC-32 (R-32) which has a GWP of 677, will provide benefits in terms of greater energy efficiency as well as reduced global warming potential. In some climate circumstances, it is estimated that the use of R-32 could reduce LCCP greenhouse gas emissions from residential air by 31% by 2050.

“Moving to low-GWP efficient alternatives in air conditioning can reduce consumer electricity costs, increase India’s energy security, expand India’s manufacturing sector, and cut the number of new power plants that will need to be built as India’s economy grows,” said Durwood Zaelke, President of the Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development.

The full report is here.

Cutting short-lived climate pollutants significant part of U.S. contribution to UN process

31 March 2015 – The U.S. announced this morning that reduction of short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs), including hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and methane, are a significant part of its Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) to climate safety, along with cuts in emissions of carbon dioxide and other climate gases.

“The White House understands that fast mitigation is essential for near-term climate protection and can be achieved by cutting the short-lived climate pollutants, in many cases by using existing laws and institutions,” said Durwood Zaelke, President of the Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development.  The White House announcement highlighted its efforts to cut the production and use of the super greenhouse gas, HFCs, both at home and globally through the Montreal Protocol, which has already provided more climate protection than any other policy.

President Obama has made the HFC phasedown under the Montreal Protocol a key climate priority.  He included it in his first meeting with China’s President Xi nearly two years ago in Sunnylands, California, where the two leaders agreed to work together to reduce the risks from North Korea, and to phase down HFCs.  President Obama also included the HFC phase down as part of his first meeting with India’s Prime Minister Modi last year, and again this year when he joined Prime Minister Modi for the Republic Day celebration.

Phasing down HFC production and use under the Montreal Protocol will provide the equivalent of up to 146 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide by 2050, and avoid up to 0.5°C of warming by 2100. A fast phase down by 2020 will provide additional mitigation, equivalent of up to 64 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide.  Further mitigation is available from improving the energy efficiency of air conditioners and other appliances using HFCs as coolants.  In the past, Montreal Protocol phase outs have catalyzed improvements in energy efficiency of 30 to 60%.  This reduces fossil fuel use and cuts carbon dioxide emissions.

The White House announcement today stated:

Economy-Wide Measures to Reduce other Greenhouse Gases: EPA and other agencies are taking actions to cut methane emissions from landfills, coal mining, agriculture, and oil and gas systems through cost-effective voluntary actions and common-sense regulations and standards.  At the same time, the State Department is working to slash global emissions of potent industrial greenhouse gases, called HFCs, through an amendment to the Montreal Protocol; EPA is cutting domestic HFC emissions through its Significant New Alternatives Policy (SNAP) program; and, the private sector has stepped up with commitments to cut global HFC emissions equivalent to 700 million metric tons through 2025.

Today’s announcement reaffirmed that the U.S. will cut greenhouse gas emissions by 26-28% below 2005 levels by 2025, nearly doubling its current greenhouse gas reduction pace, an effort previously outlined in a U.S.-China bilateral agreements last November.  According to the announcement “the 2025 target will require a further emission reduction of 9-11% beyond our 2020 target compared to the 2005 baseline and a substantial acceleration of the 2005-2020 annual pace of reduction, to 2.3-2.8 percent per year, or an approximate doubling.”

“President Obama knows that solving climate change requires global cooperation among the major polluters, including China, India, the U.S., and the EU,” Zaelke added.  “The President also knows that the best way to ensure such cooperation is to show that the U.S. is making the necessary cuts at home, and his announcement today does just that. Today the U.S. raised the bar for action in Paris. The U.S. also showed that it will continue its efforts to conclude an agreement under the Montreal Protocol to eliminate the climate damage from HFCs, one of the six main greenhouse gases, in advance of the Paris talks.”

Mexico also highlighted the importance of reducing short-lived pollutants in its commitment released Friday, including an unconditional pledge to reduce black carbon 51% by 2030.

All countries have been asked to provide public framework of intended contributions for the global climate agreement, in advance on the Paris meeting.  Today marks the first informal deadline for countries to submit their INDCs ahead of the Paris meeting, although the EU, Switzerland, Norway and Mexico are the only countries to submit their pledges as of yet. The magnitude of the U.S. commitments is expected to play a significant role in the contributions of countries that have not yet released their INDCs.

Shows Strong Ambition for December Climate Talks

30 March 2015 – On Friday Mexico made an unconditional pledge to reduce black carbon soot (BC) and other short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) in its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) to climate protection, along with reduction of long-lived carbon dioxide and other climate pollutants. The announcement shows Mexico’s strong ambition for the climate negotiations in Paris this December. Mexico stated that it will use its own national resources to reduce SLCPs, which also include HFCs, used primarily as refrigerants and to make insulating foams, and methane, from oil and gas exploration and transmission, landfills, agriculture, and other sources. Mexico is the first developing country to release its INDCs ahead of the December Conference of the Parties.

“Mexico’s INDC is the first to recognize the importance of reducing black carbon and the other short-lived climate pollutants to achieve fast climate protection,” said Durwood Zaelke, President of the Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development. “If other countries follow Mexico’s lead and reduce their own SLCPs, we can cut the rate of global warming in half and Artic warming by two-thirds in the near term through mid-century.  We also can save several million lives a year now lost to these climate pollutants, and improve food security.” Zaelke added that “Black carbon is the second most powerful climate pollutant behind carbon dioxide, and reducing it is one of the fastest ways to slow warming. Mexico was wise to include it, even though black carbon is not in the formal basket of climate gases.”

Mexico noted that its SLCP mitigation strategy was informed by the Climate and Clean Air Coalition to Reduce Short-Lived Climate Pollutants (CCAC).  The CCAC is the only international organization focused on reducing the package of SLCPs.  It was formed three years ago and now has 45 country partners, along with the World Bank, UNEP, UNDP and WHO.  It also has 54 nongovernmental organizations as partners.  The CCAC’s INDC guidance note stated:

“…16 key measures, targeting methane and BC-rich sources, which if deployed globally by 2030 could avoid about 0.5°C of additional warming by 2050, prevent approximately 2.4 million deaths annually…, and avoid about 50 million tonnes of lost crop yields by reducing concentrations of ground level ozone. A rapid phase down of high-GWP HFCs, as has been proposed under the Montreal Protocol, could increase the prevented warming by 20% to a total of 0.6°C by 2050.  Additional carbon dioxide reductions may also be achieved from improvements in combustion efficiency due to BC and methane measures, and if an HFC phase down leads to significant energy efficiency gains, such as the 30-60% efficiency gains achieved in appliances in past phase outs of fluorinated gases.”

At the same time Mexico issued its INDC, the U.S. and Mexico issued a joint statement expressing their commitment to “enhanced cooperation on air quality and climate policy, including harmonization and implementation of heavy-duty diesel and light duty emission standards, common programs to reduce reliance on HFCs, and technical cooperation on black carbon.”  The two countries also will “deepen policy and regulatory coordination” through measures including appliance standards and energy efficiency.

In addition to the commitment of reducing black carbon emissions by 51% by 2030, the INDC target also includes a pledge to cap greenhouse gas emissions by 2026, and cut carbon 22% below business-as-usual levels by 2030.

The U.S. is expected to announce its INDC tomorrow.