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Paris, France – At their March 2019 bilateral meeting during President Xi’s visit to France, both leaders agreed to commit to:

“Implementing the Paris Agreement in all its dimensions, to strengthening the capacity to implement commitments and to communicating their long-term low greenhouse gas development strategy for the middle of the century by 2020. They commit to working together to promote the ratification and implementation of the Kigali amendment to the Montreal Protocol on HFC reduction and to promote the improvement of energy efficiency standards in the cooling sector.”

IGSD’s English reference translation of the Joint Declaration Between the French Republic and the People’s Republic of China on the Preservation of Multilateralism and the Improvement of Global Governance is available here.

The official French Déclaration conjointe entre la République française et la République populaire de Chine sur la préservation du multilatéralisme et l’amélioration de la gouvernance mondiale is available here.

The official Chinese 中华人民共和国和法兰西共和国关于共同维护多边主义、完善全球治理的联合声明 (全文) is available here.

Update & Correction

Revised UN Study Confirms Imminent Threat

Fast cuts to short-lived climate pollutants could reduce Arctic warming by two-thirds, immediate dramatic action urged

25 March 2019 – Following further consultation with global and Arctic climate experts, the UN has issued a revised version of  Global Linkages–A graphic look at the changing Arctic. The revised report explains winter temperatures over the Arctic Ocean would “increase 3 to 5°C by mid-century and 5 to 9°C by late century (relative to 1986–2005 levels)” where emissions rates follow a medium-emission scenario (RCP4.5). This scenario projects global “warming of 2.4 ± 0.5°C above pre-industrial levels by 2100.” Current commitments under the Paris Agreement “imply global warming of about 3°C by 2100, with warming continuing afterwards,” according to The UNEP Emissions Gap 2018 report.

The Global Linkages report warns that avoiding further devastation to the Arctic requires fast near-term cuts in emissions, including cuts to short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs)—black carbon, methane, tropospheric ozone, and HFCs—, concluding that “instant measures to reduce SLCPs…across the world could cut the rate of warming in the Arctic by up to two-thirds by mid-century.” The revised paragraphs in Global Linkages state:

“Some recent Arctic winters (2016 and 2018) showed extreme warm temperature anomalies as well as record lows in the winter sea ice extent (2015 to 2018) (NSIDC, 2019; Overland et al., in press). Indeed, under a medium- or high-emission scenario, projected air temperature changes for the Arctic will follow a winter warming trend more than double the rate for the northern hemisphere (AMAP, 2017a; IPCC, 2018).

“To meet the Paris Agreement target of keeping global average temperature increase well below 2°C and particularly to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, countries need to dramatically step up their commitments to reduce GHG emissions (IPCC, 2018; UNEP, 2018). Continuing global emissions at rates of a medium-emission scenario (RCP4.5) projects global warming of 2.4 ± 0.5°C above pre-industrial levels by 2100 (Collins et al., 2013 (AR5)). At this rate of emissions, winter temperatures over the Arctic Ocean would increase 3 to 5°C by mid-century and 5 to 9°C by late century (relative to 1986–2005 levels) (AMAP, 2017a). Due to past, present and near-future greenhouse gas emissions and heat stored in the ocean, Arctic winter temperatures will follow a similar pathway under all emission scenarios until mid-century; only afterwards, projections start to substantially diverge (AMAP, 2017a).”

Global Linkages warns that accelerating Arctic warming is thawing more permafrost, which releases more CO2 and more methane. This in turn leads to more warming and thawing in a self-reinforcing feedback loop similar to the feedback loop from melting sea ice, where ice that once safely reflected incoming solar radiation back to space is replaced with darker water that absorbs more heat, which in turn melts more ice. At the current warming rate, the Arctic will be ice-free as early as the 2030s.

See also:

 IGSD’s Additional Background on Accelerating Rates of Global and Arctic Warming 

Carbon Brief Factcheck: Is 3–5C of Arctic warming now ‘locked in’? 

Cutting HFCs is a key pathway for the deep decarbonization needed to keep the planet relatively safe. Globally, HFC cuts can avoid up to 0.5°C by the end of the century. HFCs are the fastest-growing greenhouse gases in the U.S. and can be cut through a variety of laws and regulations at the federal, state, and local level, as explained in a new chapter on Fluorinated Gasses by Nathan Borgford- Parnell, Dr. Stephen O. Andersen, and Durwood Zaelke.

The chapter on Fluorinated Gasses is part of ELI’s Legal Pathways to Deep Decarbonization in the United States, now available for purchase. The “playbook” identifies over 1,000 recommendations that form legal pathways for reducing U.S. climate emissions by at least 80% from 1990 levels by 2050. A free pdf download of Summary and Key Recommendations is available for each of the 35 chapters, identifying over 1,000 legal options for transitioning from fossil fuels. 

While both the scale and complexity of deep decarbonization are enormous, ELI’s publications have a simple message: deep decarbonization is achievable in the U.S. using laws that exist or could be enacted, generally with significant economic, social, environmental, and national security benefits.

“A growing chorus of Americans understand that climate change is the biggest public health, economic, and national security challenge our families have ever faced and they rightly ask, ‘What can anyone do?’ Well, this book makes that answer very clear: we can do a lot as individuals, businesses, communities, cities, states, and the federal government to fight climate change. The legal pathways are many and the barriers are not insurmountable. In short, the time is now to dig deep and decarbonize.“

— Gina McCarthy, Former U.S. EPA Administrator

On April 25th, ELI will host a seminar and book launch, register to attend live or via webinar. In May, ELI will also release a podcast about the book.

To purchase Legal Pathways to Deep Decarbonization in the United States, visit https://www.eli.org/eli-press-books/legal-pathways-deep-decarbonization-united-states.  

08 March 2019 — Implemented in a new design called Secondary Loop Mobile Air Conditioning (SL-MAC), the lowest cost alternative refrigerant to HFC-134a has been identified as R-152a (hydrofluorocarbon – HFC-152a). This improved refrigerant is more energy efficient and requires less routine maintenance, saving owners hundreds of dollars over the life of the vehicle, according to a new report published by the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) in partnership with the Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development. 

Authored by Kate Blumberg and Aaron Isenstadt from ICCT and Kristen N. Taddonio, Stephen O. Andersen, and Nancy J. Sherman from IGSD, Mobile Air Conditioning: The Life-Cycle Costs and Greenhouse-Gas Benefits of Switching to Alternative Refrigerants and Improving System Efficiencies, examines the greenhouse-gas benefits and costs of switching to improved refrigerants and more efficient air conditioning (AC) systems.

“This analysis is timely because the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer was amended in 2016 to require the phase down of hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions by both developed and developing countries,” said co-author Dr. Stephen O. Andersen, Director of Research at IGSD. “Next-generation mobile AC technology can eliminate about one third of global HFC emissions, avoiding up to 0.2°C of warming over the next century if the new MACs are designed for maximum energy efficiency and vehicles are insulated to reduce cooling demand,” he added. 

R-152a is a mildly flammable refrigerant  that satisfies the European Union F-Gas Regulation requiring global warming potential less than 150 and is listed as approved for use in mobile ACs by the United States Environmental Protection Agency Significant New Alternatives Policy Program (SNAP) when used according to SAE International manufacturing and safety standards.  It is also approved under the European Union Registration, Evaluation, Authorization and Restriction of Chemicals (REACH) and, unlike existing mobile AC refrigerants HFC-134a and HFO-1234yf, HFC-152a has no hazardous trifluoroacetic acid atmospheric byproducts. 

“Most remarkably, R-152a in SL-MACs has been developed almost patent free by a team of experts from TATA Motors Limited, MAHLE, and IGSD, with the strong support of several dozen experts from the automotive community including SAE International, the Mobil Air Conditioning Society International, car makers, and MAC system component, system and service suppliers” added co-author Dr. Nancy J. Sherman, Director of Technical Assessment at IGSD.

“Where else but the HFC phase down do you see industry working proactively with environmentalists?” said co-author Kristen N. Taddonio, Senior Climate and Energy Advisor to IGSD.

Mobile Air Conditioning: The Life-Cycle Costs and Greenhouse-Gas Benefits of Switching to Alternative Refrigerants and Improving System Efficienciesis available for download here.

Inefficient air conditioners (ACs) dumped into developing and developed countries overload energy resources, undermining national and local efforts to manage energy, environment, health, and climate goals, according to a new analysis published in the Duke Environmental Law & Policy Forum this week.

Environmental dumping, is “the practice of exporting products to another country or territory that: 1) Contain hazardous substances; 2) Have environmental performance lower than is in the interest of consumers or that is contrary to the interests of the local and global commons, or; 3) Can undermine the ability of the importing country to fulfill international environmental treaty commitments”.

The analysis elaborates on powerful policy tools to halt the needless dumping of ACs, wasting energy, and leaking obsolete high global warming potential refrigerants scheduled for phaseout or phasedown under the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer. The authors include a toolkit of antidumping measures that can be implemented consistent with international trade agreements, and consistent with the principles of non-discrimination, transparency, and notice.

“Inefficient ACs that are dumped into developing countries are energy vampires that steal the energy developing countries need for development,” said Durwood Zaelke, President of the Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development (IGSD), and co-author of the report. “Stopping environmental dumping is critical to achieving the Montreal Protocol’s stretch goal of avoiding up to 1°C of warming by the end of the century. Half of the 1°C of avoided warming will come from the fast phasedown of HFCs, and half from the improvement of energy efficiency of cooling equipment, which will also provide $2.9 trillion in investment, fuel, and operating costs by 2050.”

Authored by six experts at Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development the article draws on decades of experience in Montreal Protocol negotiations, international and foreign economics, and law and policy.

“Countries can choose the combination of anti-dumping tools that is in their best national interest of access to superior technology, affordable AC ownership costs with money saved on electricity spent locally, and climate protection that maintains sustainable prosperity,” said Dr. Stephen O. Andersen, IGSD Director of Research, and co-author of the report.

In its Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C,  the IPCC noted antidumping measures are available tools for countries to enhance energy efficiency, which is critical in the broader fight to avoid the worst effects of global climate change.

“Where product phaseouts result in the dumping of obsolete products in countries that can least afford it, there is clearly an opportunity for government and corporate leadership in China, Africa, and elsewhere, toward a different, more sustainable path,” said Richard Ferris, IGSD Senior Counsel, and co-author of the report.

IGSD is offering assistance to the Montreal Protocol Parties on the effective use of these powerful new tools.

“Defining the Legal and Policy Framework to Stop the Dumping of Environmentally Harmful Products” is available for download here.

Chinese version with preface available at 上；下；暨中文版导读).

Potential to avoid up to 0.5°C of warming with fast implementation

Can double this with energy efficiency gains for cooling equipment

On 1 January 2019, the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol entered into force, mandating the phase-down of super climate pollutants called hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). The amendment has now been ratified by 65 parties, including most recently Japan and Nigeria, surpassing the 20 ratifications needed to bring it into force. While the U.S. industry is supporting ratification, the U.S. administration has not yet indicated whether it will send the amendment to the Senate for its advice and consent. 

Two years ago, the Parties agreed to the Kigali Amendment to phase down HFCs, which has the potential to avoid up to 0.5ºC of warming by 2100 if implementation speeds up and Parties follow a “leapfrog” strategy that moves from the current refrigerants (HCFCs) directly into climate-friendly alternatives, bypassing HFCs with high global warming potential. Improving the energy efficiency of air conditioners and other cooling equipment has the potential to double the climate benefits of the HFC phase-down, giving the treaty a stretch goal of avoiding up to 1ºC of warming by the end of the century from these combined strategies.

“Over the last three decades, this work-horse treaty has not only solved the first great threat to the global atmosphere—the destruction of the stratospheric ozone layer—but it’s also solved an amount of the climate problem that would have equaled the contribution of carbon dioxide today—more than half of all warming—with the Kigali Amendment and energy efficiency poised to add even more climate protection,” said Durwood Zaelke, President of the Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development.

Zaelke added, “As we enter the New Year facing increasing climate impacts, the success of the Montreal Protocol should give us hope that it is still possible to slow climate change in time to avoid the fast-approaching existential threat of uncontrollable climate impacts.”

See also:

 

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