A First Look at China’s 2035 NDC: Headline Targets and Non-CO₂ Action

3 November 2025 - Today, China submitted its 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The submission reaffirms China’s 2035 NDC targets as announced by President Xi Jinping at the United Nations Climate Summit in September 2025. Additionally, it lists specific quantitative targets on non-CO₂ GHGs.

Key quantitative targets in the 2035 NDC include that China:

• Will reduce its economy-wide net GHG emissions to 7–10% below its peak levels by 2035 and will strive to do better;
• Will increase its non-fossil energy supply to 30% of total energy consumption by 2035;
• Will raise its installed wind and solar power capacity to over 3.6 TW by 2035 (≈ six times of 2020 levels); and
• Will ensure that its forest stock volume reaches over 24 billion cubic meters by 2035.

Specifically on the non-CO₂ GHGs, China’s 2035 NDC includes the following quantitative targets:

• China will reduce the production and consumption of HFCs by at least 30% from baseline levels by 2035 (consistent with the goals provided in the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer); and
• China will increase the comprehensive reutilization rate of livestock and poultry manure to over 85% by 2035 (China’s Methane Emissions Control Action Plan sets the target of raising the comprehensive reutilization rate of livestock and poultry manure to over 85% by 2030. see IGSD policy brief, here).

It is also noteworthy that China commits to protect its natural carbon sinks, including to maintain ecologically protected regions at no less than 3.15 million square kilometers, increase the rate of forest coverage to over 26%, and raise the soil conservation rate to 75%.

Climate science has confirmed that only a combined CO₂ + non-CO₂ super pollutant strategy can address the climate emergency to avoid climate catastrophe and tipping points. (see IGSD background note, here). The incorporation of non-CO₂ GHGs into China’s quantitative NDC targets is one step forward. Nonetheless, more ambition and action can be identified, building upon China’s 2035 NDCs, to address the climate emergency.

Additional IGSD resources:

• IGSD (31 October 2025) China’s Ministry of Ecology and Environment describes expectations for COP30.

• IGSD (27 August 2025) China releases industrial nitrous oxide emissions control action plan. IGSD’s bilingual Chinese-English version of the Action Plan is available here.

• IGSD (9 April 2025) China issues national plan to strengthen the management of ozone-depleting substances and climate-polluting hydrofluorocarbons.

• IGSD (7 November 2023) China releases Methane Emissions Control Action Plan. IGSD’s annotated, English reference translation of the China Methane Emissions Action Plan is available here.