2011 - Institute For Governance & Sustainable Development

Project Surya finds climate model simulations underestimated impact of black carbon

Washington, D.C., June 14, 2011 – Black carbon soot is a potent climate pollutant that is causing up to half the warming in the Arctic region, and also much of the warming in the Himalayan- Tibetan Plateau, two super critical ecosystems that are warming two to three times faster than the global average.

New evidence presented today gathered from the Gangetics Plains at the base of the Himalayas shows that black carbon soot may be even more damaging to this region of the world. Using cell phones as monitors, in a first of its kind experiment, measurements by Professor V. Ramanathan show that black carbon emissions are 3 to 5 times greater than represented in model simulations.

“Black carbon’s damage to the Himalayan-Tibetan Plateau is bad news for the hundreds of millions of people—perhaps billions—who depend on the “Third Pole” for dry season irrigation needed for the crops that feed them,” said Durwood Zaelke, President of the Institute for Governance and Sustainable Development (IGSD).

The Tibetan Plateau—the planet’s largest store of ice after the Arctic and Antarctic— is warming about three times the global average, with temperature increases of 0.3ºC or more per decade measured for the past half-century. Since the 1950’s, warming on the Tibetan side of the Himalayas has contributed to retreat of more than 80% of the glaciers, and the degradation of 10% of its permafrost, permanently frozen ground, in the past ten years. Permafrost holds vast stores of CO2 and methane trapped in the frozen ground which, if released, could trigger abrupt runaway warming.

“But there is good news here as well,” he added. Ramanathan and his daughter, Dr. Nithya Ramanathan, have enlisted local women and cell phones to help with the black carbon measurements of their indoor cooking – a source of black carbon pollution that is a major killer of women and children. “By changing the way they cook, the growing army of women enlisted by Ramanathan and his daughter can save the Himalayan Plateau,” said Zaelke, while also saving their own lives and the lives of their children. He added, “of course they will need help from their governments and international partners.”

By cutting their black carbon emissions from cooking, the women of Asia also can prevent the monsoon from shifting. Literally billions of people depend on the monsoons for the water for their crops and drinking. Zaelke said, “This may be even more important than saving the Himalayas.”

Air pollution, monsoon floods and droughts are three of the most serious environmental threats to over 60% of the world population living in Asia. In South Asia, a two-to-three-fold increase in soot loading from present day levels could substantially weaken the monsoon circulation, decrease rainfall by more than 25% and significantly increase the frequency of drought.

The importance of black carbon soot was further confirmed today in the UNEP/WMO report “Integrated Assessment on Black Carbon and Tropospheric Ozone.” According to the Summary for Policy Makers of the report, full implementation of the 16 identified emission reduction measures of black carbon and ozone precursors could avoid 2.4 million premature deaths, mainly women and children, with more than 80% of the health benefits occurring in Asia.

The report found existing technologies can cut local air pollutions, save millions of lives and billions of dollars in crop losses annually, while also cutting the rate of global warming by half – increasing the chances of keeping temperature rise below 2 degrees C, or even 1.5C.

Reducing these short-lived climate forcers, including black carbon, tropospheric ozone, and methane can have immediate health, climate and agricultural benefits. Unlike CO2, which can remain in the atmosphere for centuries, these pollutants last only days to weeks in the atmosphere.

Black carbon is a key warming agent for glaciated regions, including the Himalayan-Tibetan Plateau in Asia. It also contributes to the warming in the Arctic, where the white ice and snow acts as a defensive shield that reflects heat back to space. The Arctic is currently warming at twice the rate of the global average, and melting there is predicted to contribute to sea levels to rise of as much as 5 feet by the end of the century, according to a new study in May by the International Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program (AMAP). This is more than two and a half times higher than the sea level rise projected in 2007 by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Another common air pollutant is methane, which interacts with sunlight and other volatile compounds to form ground-level ozone, or smog. Reducing ground-level ozone can help increase crop yields. It also can help restore the ability of forests, grasslands and mangroves to sequester carbon, a function now being degraded by ground level ozone.

In 2009, Zaelke, Ramanathan, Nobel Laureate Mario Molina and others, published a paper in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, that outlined strategies to achieve near-term climate benefits by reducing short-term climate warming agents, including black carbon and tropospheric ozone. The Molina paper also included measures to phase down another powerful climate forcer, hydrofluorocarbons, or HFCs, by using the Montreal Protocol treaty. “Global warming is a dauntingly complex issue,” Zaelke said. “Fortunately, there are many actions that we can take today that can produce immediate cooling and save millions of lives. Knowing what’s at stake, we cannot afford to wait.”

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Washington, DC, May 14, 2011 – Global climate change is real and the danger it poses to the US and the world demands aggressive national policies to quickly reduce greenhouse gas emissions, according to a report published on May 12 by The National Research Council of the National Academies of Science. The report, America’s Climate Choices, points out that approximately 20% of the CO2 emitted today will remain in the atmosphere for more than a millennium, and is ultimately the primary driver of long-term climate change. For this reason it is critical to take fast mitigation actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and the growing damage caused by a warming world.

“Damages from lack of action on climate change are growing faster than predicted,” said Durwood Zaelke, President of the Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development. “We need to act fast, on all fronts, to get the mitigation we need to avoid catastrophic impacts.”

Melting snow and ice in the Arctic is predicted to cause up to 5 feet of sea level rise by the end of the century, according to a new study released last week by the International Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program (AMAP). This is more than two and a half times higher than the sea level rise projected in 2007 by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

“The largest and most permanent bodies of ice in the Arctic – multiyear sea ice, mountain glaciers, ice caps and the Greenland Ice Sheet – have all been declining faster since 2000 than they did in the previous decade, ” according to the Arctic study. “The Arctic Ocean is projected to become nearly ice-free in summer within this century, likely within the next thirty to forty years.”

Arctic ice is a defensive shield that is reflecting incoming solar radiation back into space. When it melts, it exposes darker ocean and land that absorbs rather than reflects the radiation. This could lead to run-away feedbacks as accelerating Arctic warming melts more of the region’s permafrost. The permafrost line is already moving north at a rapid rate—in Russia by 19-50 miles (30 to 80 km) during 1970-2005 and in Canada by 81 miles (130 km) during the past 50 years. This in turn releases both CO2 and methane, an even more powerful climate pollutant. The thaw and decay of permafrost is irreversible and will require larger reductions in CO2 emissions to stay within the 2°C guardrail.

In addition to cutting CO2 emissions, there are significant climate mitigation opportunities from reducing other climate forcers, including black carbon, hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), methane, and tropospheric ozone as a complement to CO2 reductions. These non-CO2 forcers stay in the atmosphere for a matter of days to two to three decades, compared with CO2, which remains for a century to many thousands of years.

Cutting the non-CO2 climate pollutants can cut the rate of Arctic warming by two-thirds, and cut global warming in half for the next 30 to 60 years, assuming CO2 cuts also are made.

For example, phasing out the production and use of HFCs under the Montreal Protocol ozone treaty can produce enormous climate benefits. The Federated States of Micronesia submitted a proposal last week to amend the Montreal Protocol to phase down production and consumption of HFCs. The United States, Canada, and Mexico also filed a similar joint proposal last week to phase down HFCs.

The climate benefit of the island’s HFC strategy would be up to 100 billion tonnes of CO2-equivalent before 2050. This compares to the 5 to 10 billion tonnes of CO2-equivalent that the Kyoto Protocol is striving to achieve during its first commitment period. The cost could be as little as US $0.10 per tonne of CO2-equivalent in public funds.

Cutting non-CO2 climate forcers is critical for protecting vulnerable peoples and ecosystems such as small island countries, and for reducing the risk of passing temperature tipping points for irreversible and abrupt climate changes such as the loss of the Arctic.

“Targeting HFCs under the Montreal Protocol is a unique opportunity that can be implemented quickly, successfully, at low cost, and will produce mitigation,” added Zaelke. “The world desperately needs this kind of action now.”

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American’s Climate Choices: http://americasclimatechoices.org/

Washington, DC, May 11, 2011 – Facing sea level rise of up to 5 feet by the end of the century, the low-lying vulnerable island nation of Micronesia is calling on the Parties to the Montreal Protocol ozone treaty to capture the single biggest climate mitigation prize available to the world today by agreeing to phase down hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), a group of super greenhouse gases that can have hundreds to thousands the warming potential of carbon dioxide (CO2).

The climate benefit of the island’s strategy would be up to 100 billion tonnes of CO2-equivalent before 2050. This compares to the 5 to 10 billion tonnes of CO2-equivalent that the Kyoto Protocol is striving to achieve during its first commitment period. The cost could be as little as US $0.10 per tonne of CO2-equivalent in public funds.

“Climate change impacts have become so clear and so close now, that we need fast, aggressive mitigation if we hope to avoid the worst consequences,” said Durwood Zaelke, President of the Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development. “This courageous island is stepping up to the plate on behalf of all vulnerable nations with the best plan to slow climate change. Without cuts in CO2, mitigation under Montreal won’t be enough, but without this fast-action strategy, Micronesians and many others in low-lying areas will face the loss of their countries.”

Micronesia submitted their proposal this week to the Montreal Protocol Secretariat as the first step in convincing the other 195 Parties to agree to an amendment that would start cutting production and consumption of HFCs. The United States, Canada, and Mexico, which had supported action on HFCs under the Montreal Protocol last year, also re-submitted a similar joint proposal for 2011.

An amendment to the Protocol would present developing country Parties with the opportunity to leapfrog the potent HFC greenhouse gas altogether and transition into ozone- and climate- friendly alternatives. HFCs are the current ozone-friendly substitutes for HCFCs, which both warm the planet and damage the ozone layer. They are mainly used as coolants in refrigeration and air conditioning systems and in foam-blowing applications for insulation.

Over 90 nations have followed Micronesia’s lead in calling for HCFCs to be replaced with chemicals that have a low impact on global warming. Phasing out the production and use of HFCs and transitioning to many of the more climate-friendly HCFC-alternatives already available will prevent the enormous growth in HFCs otherwise expected by 2050.

“Solving one problem while exacerbating another is not acceptable,” said Zaelke. “As we finally begin to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, we cannot at the same time allow the equivalent of over 100 billion tons of carbon dioxide to be manufactured and released into the atmosphere.”

Micronesia has a history of success at bringing about effective climate mitigation under the Montreal Protocol.

In 2007, the Montreal Protocol Parties agreed to an historic Micronesia-proposed decision to accelerate the phase-out of hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs). Since then, support for phasing down the substitute HFCs under the Montreal Protocol has been steadily increasing, with the largest group of NGOs calling for doing so at last month’s UNFCCC climate talks in Bangkok, Thailand.

Initial discussions on the two proposals will take place at the Montreal Protocol’s Open-Ended Working Group meeting August 1-5, in Bangkok; final decisions will be taken at the Meeting of the Parties November 14-18, in Bali.

Washington, DC, May 6, 2011 – Sea levels could rise up to 5 feet by the end of this century, driven by warming in the Arctic and the resulting melt of snow and ice, according to a new study by the International Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program (AMAP). This is more than two and a half times higher than the 2007 projection of a half to two feet by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

The Arctic temperature increase and the decline of snow and ice feed upon themselves, in an accelerating feedback loop that is causing more rapid melting and sea level rise. The reflective Arctic ice and snow act as a protective shield, sending solar radiation into space. As the ice and snow disappears it is replaced by darker seawater or land, which absorbs more of the incoming radiation. This absorbed energy is released as heat during the summer months, further adding to Arctic warming, which in turn accelerates melting.

Among the feedbacks of greatest concern is the melting of Arctic permafrost (permanently frozen ground). Circumpolar permafrost regions contain the equivalent of about 6,000 billion tonnes of CO2. As more permafrost melts due to increasing Arctic temperatures, more of the gases that were previously trapped in the frozen ground are released.

According to the report, the temperature in the Arctic permafrost has increased by up to 2˚C over the past two to three decades. This warming has caused the southern boundary for melting permafrost to move steadily northward, by 19 to 50 miles in Russia and by more than 80 miles in Quebec.

The combination of these changes could lead to “run-away” feedbacks that could push past other critical tipping points in Earth’s climate system including the loss of Hindu-Kush-Himalaya- Tibetan glaciers, which provide the head-waters for most major river systems of Asia, (the source of freshwater for hundreds of millions of people), and the die-off of the Amazon forest.

In addition to the global impacts, the increasing temperatures in the Arctic are expected to create fundamental changes in Arctic ecosystems, possibly erasing entire habitats. This will contribute to species extinctions, and dramatically impact Arctic societies, creating challenges for local communities and traditional ways of life.

Emissions of black carbon soot – produced mostly from diesel engines and burning of biomass – also contribute to the Arctic problem by darkening snow and ice and reducing their ability to reflect the sun’s radiation. Recent studies indicate that black carbon may be responsible for 50% of Arctic warming, or nearly 1.0ºC of the 1.9ºC warming since 1890.

“Slowing the feedback mechanisms will not be easy or simple, but there’s no alternative.” said Durwood Zaelke, President of the Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development. “Without the Arctic, we’re facing an extremely grave and uncertain future.”

Combating this threat to the Arctic and the globe requires tackling the problem of climate change. This in turn requires cutting emissions of CO2, the principal greenhouse gas, protecting and expanding forests and other “sinks” to absorb CO2, and developing other strategies to draw down current excess CO2 from the atmosphere on a time scale of decades rather than the thousands of years the natural cycle takes to remove CO2 from the atmosphere. It also requires cutting the other global warming gases along with black carbon soot. These other non-CO2 climate pollutants can complement cuts in CO2. Both are needed to win the battle against global warming.

According to a recent UNEP/WMO report, full implementation of a package of sixteen emission reduction measures targeting black carbon and ozone precursors, including methane, can cut the rate of global warming in half for the next 30 to 60 years, and by two-thirds in the Arctic.

The AMAP report will be delivered to the foreign ministers of eight Arctic nations next week, including Sec. Hillary Clinton.

Alarming State of Glaciers Prompts Workshop and Report Commissioned by Vatican

Glaciers are in rapid decline and loss of these glaciers will have profoundly negative impacts on climate and human life, according to a report published yesterday by a scientific working group that was commissioned by the Vatican’s Pontifical Academy of Science.

The co-authors of “Fate of Mountain Glaciers in the Anthropocene” list numerous examples of glacial decline around the world and the evidence linking that decline to human-caused changes in climate and air pollution. The threat to the ways of life of people dependent upon glaciers and snow packs for water supplies compels immediate action to mitigate the effects of climate change and to adapt to what changes are happening now and are projected to happen in the future.

“This group’s consensus statement is a warning to humanity and a call for fast action—to mitigate global and regional warming, to protect mountain glaciers and other vulnerable ecosystems, to assess national and local climate risks, and to prepare to adapt to those climate impacts that cannot be mitigated,” reads the report.

Though scientists usually refrain from proposing specific action, Professor Ramanathan from the Scripps Institution, at the University of California, San Diego, and one of the workshop co- chairs, said the circumstances of climate change warranted advancing suggestions from the working group.

In “Fate of Mountain Glaciers in the Anthropocene” the working group – made up of glaciologists, climate scientists, meteorologists, hydrologists, physicists, chemists, mountaineers, and lawyers – makes three central recommendations to minimize climate impacts:

Reduce emissions of carbon dioxide quickly and aggressively, including through protection of forests, wetlands, grasslands, and other carbon sinks, and through the development and deployment of strategies to draw down excess CO2 in the atmosphere, all within decades;
Reduce concentrations of other climate warmers and air pollutants, including black carbon soot, methane, lower atmosphere ozone, and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) by as much as 50 percent, also within decades; and
Prepare to adapt to climate change impacts that will undoubtedly occur even if mitigation measures are successful.

“Climate change is a moral issue, as well as a scientific issue,” said Durwood Zaelke, President of the Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development and a member of the working group. “Hundreds of millions of the most vulnerable of the Earth will suffer needlessly,” he added, “unless we take fast action to slow and ultimately reverse global warming.”

Zaelke continued, “The Vatican’s support for fast action to mitigate climate change is heartening. Religious leaders have the authority to build a groundswell of support that persuades even conservative political leaders to take the strong and fast action we need to protect the Planet.”

Report authors met at the Vatican from April 2 to April 4, 2011 under the invitation of Chancellor Marcelo Sanchez Sorondo of the pontifical academy. The report was issued by the Vatican yesterday and will be presented to Pope Benedict XVI.

The report title refers to the term coined by Crutzen to describe what is considered a new geologic epoch that began when the impacts of mankind on the planet became a major factor in environmental and climate changes.

Washington, DC, May 6, 2011 – Beginning tomorrow, May 7, BBC World will air a documentary highlighting the potential of the Montreal Protocol ozone treaty to fight climate change. “The 21 Gigatonne Timebomb” is part of the Nature Inc. series and focuses on the Montreal Protocol’s environmental success to date and its role in future climate mitigation, in particular, phasing out the production and use of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs).

HFCs are the current ozone-friendly substitutes for more potent HCFCs under the Protocol, but also double as powerful greenhouse gases with hundreds to thousands the warming potential of carbon dioxide. HCFCs are the substitutes that replaced the original group of ozone-damaging chemicals, CFCs.

The Montreal Protocol is well-known for its success in protecting the ozone layer, but the treaty has also contributed significantly – many times more than the Kyoto Protocol – to the protection of the climate system from phasing out almost 100 ozone-depleting and climate warming chemicals by almost 100 percent, delaying climate change by up to 12 years. The treaty’s resounding success – due in great part to its strong financial mechanism, rapid scientific, technology, and economic assessments, low costs, and the support of all 196 countries of the world – has led many countries to call for its leadership on climate change.

However, if the Montreal Protocol continues on its current path to a full transition into HFCs, the treaty will be responsible for a significant portion of climate change emissions. HFCs are growing so fast that they will contribute about 6 billion tonnes of CO2-equvilent per year to climate change by 2050 if they are not controlled. This is about one-third of the emissions due to CO2 itself, assuming the world succeeds in stabilizing CO2 emissions at 450 parts per million by that date.

“Phasing out HFCs is the single biggest, fastest, most secure, and cheapest climate mitigation available today – 100 billion tonnes of CO2-equivalent through the Montreal Protocol, the treaty that never fails, at a cost that may be as low as $0.10 per tonne,” said Durwood Zaelke, President of the Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development. “More than 90 countries have already expressed their support for using the Montreal Protocol to phase down HFCs.”

The effort to eliminate HFCs under the Montreal Protocol is being led by the Federated States of Micronesia on behalf of all vulnerable countries. Micronesia proposed an amendment to the ozone treaty in 2009 and 2010 to phase down the upstream production and use of HFCs; downstream emissions of HFCs would remain under the Kyoto Protocol. The North American countries of the United States, Mexico, and Canada followed with a similar proposal.

Micronesia is preparing a similar proposal to re-submit this month; the North American countries are expected to re-submit their proposal as well.

Although some countries, such as China and India, were not ready to support the HFC proposals last year, recent events show that interest is growing for taking action on HFCs under Montreal.

In February, the U.S. and India announced that they were forming an HFC Task Force to analyze strategies for eliminating the high-GWP HFCs, following a joint workshop and consultations with stakeholders in New Delhi. The new task force is expected to submit a report by August 1 of this year, in advance of the Montreal Protocol’s mid-year, Open-Ended Working Group meeting August 1-5 in Bangkok. India’s Minister of Environment and Forests, Jairam Ramesh, stated at the joint HFC workshop that, “With international financing and technology support, there is no reason why India should not lead in the phase-down of HFCs.”

“The 21 Gigatonne Timebomb” was originally proposed by IGSD, and produced by Dev.TV. The film features interviews with Micronesia’s Permanent Representative to the UN, Ambassador Masao Nakayama; Micronesia’s Montreal Protocol negotiator, Antonio Oposa; head of the UN Environment Programme’s Energy and OzonAction office in Paris, Rajendra Shende; and Environmental Investigation Agency f-gas campaigner, Samuel LaBudde, among others.

The program will air on BBC World on the following dates and times: Saturday, May 7 at 5:30am (EDT), 5:30pm (EDT), and 10:30pm (EDT); and Sunday, May 8 at 11:30am (EDT).

Key Conclusions of US EPA External Peer Review of Black Carbon Report to Congress

Washington, D.C., 21 April 2011. Cutting black carbon (BC) pollution can provide near- term climate mitigation, particularly in sensitive regions such as the Arctic and the Tibetan Plateau, according to the Advisory Panel reviewing the EPA Report to Congress on Black Carbon. BC and its co-emitted pollutants kill approximately two million people each year. Many of these lives can be saved by deploying existing and cost-effective abatement technologies.

On April 18-19, 2011, the US EPA held an Advisory Panel Meeting to review its Report to Congress on Black Carbon. As requested by Congress, the study identifies BC impacts on climate through extensive review of available scientific literature, as well as the efficacy and costs of BC mitigation programs and technologies for protecting climate, public health, and the environment. According to the report, reducing emissions of BC could quickly mitigate climate change, and is “ripe for ‘win-win’ emissions reduction approaches that bring both climate and public health benefits.”

The External Peer Review Draft of the Report to Congress on Black Carbon was released by the US EPA in March. Key conclusions of EPA’s draft BC report include:

BC and other light-absorbing particles exert a powerful influence over the earth’s climate, especially at the regional scale.
- BC has a short atmospheric residence time of days to weeks, and the emissions sources and ambient concentrations of BC vary geographically and BC’s resulting climate effects are therefore more regionally and seasonally dependant than the well mixed greenhouse gases (GHGs).

Mitigating BC can make a difference in the short term for climate, at least in sensitive
- The largest climate benefits of BC-focused control strategies may come from reducing emissions affecting the Arctic, Himalayas and other ice and snow covered Estimates of snow and ice albedo forcing of BC in these key regions exceed global averages.
The full effect of BC on climate must be assessed in the context of co-emitted
- Organic carbon (OC) is a significant co-emitted pollutant among the major BC emitted Because OC generally scatters solar radiation and exerts a cooling influence on climate, the total amount of OC vs. BC in an emissions mixture is important. This ratio varies significantly among source categories.

BC is different from long-lived GHGs like CO2 both in the variety of ways it affects climate and its short atmospheric lifetime.
- BC directly affects the climate by absorbing both incoming and outgoing radiation of all
- BC affects snow/ice albedo when deposited on the surface, decreasing reflectivity thereby increasing absorption and accelerating
- BC also indirectly affects the climate by altering the properties of clouds, affecting cloud reflectivity, precipitation and surface

BC mitigation strategies are likely to provide substantial public health and (non- climate) environmental
- Exposure to fine particle including BC is associated with a broad range of respiratory and cardiovascular effects, as well as premature BC is a component of indoor air pollution associated with the burning of solid fuels, which is estimated to cause about 2 million deaths per year.

Careful targeting and sequencing of mitigation programs is essential for both public health and climate
- Strategies that focus on sources known to emit large amounts of BC – especially those with a high ratio of BC to OC, like diesel emissions – will maximize climate co-benefits. However, the sequencing of these programs is critical to success; for example, Diesel Particulate Filters (DPF) are ineffective at reducing BC without first converting to low-sulfur diesel fuel.
- The largest health benefits from BC-focused control strategies will occur locally near the emissions source and where exposure affects a large

There is a strong need for additional research and analysis of BC including:
- Quantitative analysis examining the climate, public health, and environmental impacts of specific control
- Refinement of climate metrics specific to BC and other short-lived climate
- Systematic analysis of key remaining uncertainties and technical gaps in the climate models for BC.

Full text of the draft report can be found here.

The Advisory Committee is taking written public comments on the draft report throughout the drafting process until early June 2011. Written comments should be directed to the Designated Federal Officer: Stephanie Sanzone at sanzone.stephanie@epa.gov.

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The Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development’s mission is to promote just and sustainable societies and to protect the environment by advancing the understanding, development and implementation of effective, accountable and democratic systems of governance for sustainable development.

Beginning in 2006, the Institute embarked on a “fast-action” climate mitigation campaign to promote non-CO2 strategies that will result in significant emissions reductions in the near-term, to complement cuts in CO2 which are essential for the long-term. These strategies include reducing emissions of local air pollutants such as black carbon, methane, and tropospheric ozone; mitigation of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) through the Montreal Protocol ozone treaty; and carbon-negative measures such as biosequestration through expanded biochar production.

For more information on IGSD’s work see www.igsd.org or contact: Durwood Zaelke, President, IGSD, zaelke@igsd.org

Dennis Clare, Senior Law Fellow, IGSD, dclare@igsd.org

Washington, DC, April 20, 2011 – The Arctic has been warming rapidly over the last century – about twice the global average – and black carbon soot may be to blame, according to an international team of scientists who have begun a month-long research project to study the impact of black carbon particles in the vulnerable region. Scientists from the US, Norway, Russia, Germany, Italy, and China have come together to collect data on black carbon pollution, which is mostly produced from diesel vehicles and biomass-burning cook stoves, and packs a one-two warming punch in the Arctic and other areas of snow and ice.

First, the dark particles absorb heat while in the atmosphere, contributing to temperature rise. Second, once the particles fall out of the atmosphere, they land on snow and ice, darkening the white, reflective surface area. The darker surface means less sunlight is reflected and more is absorbed. This can trigger a positive feedback mechanism where the heat absorbed from the sunlight contributes to even more melting, leading to more dark water – and less reflective ice – that accelerates warming and melting.

“The six nations taking part in this study should be commended for their efforts,” said Durwood Zaelke, President of the Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development. “Black carbon is a dangerous foe of the Arctic and we need to start reducing it immediately. The Arctic is one of our largest defensive shields against warming, and we can’t afford to lose it.”

In addition to its impacts on snow and ice, black carbon is a deadly air pollutant, responsible for respiratory illnesses that kill more than two million people each year. The UN Environment Programme (UNEP) and World Meteorological Organization (WMO) highlighted the multiple benefits from cutting black carbon and another local air pollutant, tropospheric ozone, in its February “Integrated Assessment of Black Carbon and Tropospheric Ozone: Summary for Decision Makers”.

“There’s no doubt that black carbon is a killer, and we need to get rid of it,” said Zaelke. “The good news is that black carbon remains in the atmosphere for a short period of time – days to weeks – meaning that reducing emissions will provide almost immediate benefits. Cutting black carbon is a fast-action strategy that could be our only means of saving the Arctic.”

Solving the black carbon problem can also be done with current technologies, through existing air pollution laws and treaties, as demonstrated by the UNEP-WMO assessment, which highlights 16 strategies that could have immediate benefits for climate, health, and crops.

“How can you justify inaction on this pollutant? You can’t. Millions of people are dying and the Arctic is melting, as are other vitally important ice shields, including the Tibetan Plateau which is the main water source for hundreds of millions of people in Asia,” added Zaelke.

The Coordinated Investigation of Climate-Cryosphere Interactions (CICCI) project will conclude May 15.

For more information on the CICCI Project: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2011/20110418_blackcarbon.html

To read the UNEP-WMO assessment: http://www.unep.org/dewa/Portals/67/pdf/Black_Carbon.pdf

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For more information, visit www.igsd.org

Congressionally mandated EPA study shows “win-win” potential

Washington, DC, March 25, 2011 –Black carbon (BC) is “ripe for ‘win-win’ emissions reduction approaches that bring both climate and public health benefits”, according to a new U.S. EPA study mandated by Congress.

The study, which is now undergoing peer review, states that reducing “BC emissions can halt the effects of BC on temperature, snow and ice, and precipitation almost immediately.” The EPA study also states that cutting BC will protect public health and help agriculture.

“Cutting BC provides the biggest benefits for the regions making the cuts,” said Durwood Zaelke, President of the Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development. “This is an attractive strategy for regions with high emissions, including Asia.”

Zaelke added, “Cutting BC is an essential strategy for vulnerable regions like the Arctic and Himalayas. If we don’t cut the BC emissions that end up in these vulnerable regions, we risk triggering positive feedback mechanisms that accelerate warming.” (An example of a positive feedback is loss of Arctic sea ice; when it is replaced by darker water, it absorbs more incoming radiative energy and accelerates warming.)

BC emissions may be half or more of the warming in the Arctic, and in the Himalayas as well. In the Arctic, the average springtime forcing from BC is 1.73 watts per square meter. This compares with global warming from CO2 of 1.66 watts per square meter. The report notes instantaneous warming of up to 20 watts per square meter in some places in the Himalayas in springtime.

In the U.S., BC is reducing snow cover and overall snowpack and contributing to earlier spring melting. This reduces melt-water later in the year when it is most needed.

While cutting BC will provide powerful climate protection in the short run, it has limited impact on long-term warming. In contrast, cutting CO2 has little benefit in the short-term. CO2 stays in the atmosphere for decades to millennia. After cutting CO2, the climate is slow to respond because the atmospheric concentrations that have accumulated since 1750 remain relatively constant for long periods.

“We can only win,” Zaelke said, “if we cut BC and the other short-lived climate pollutants, while also slamming on the brakes for CO2 emissions. It’s not one or the other. We need to cut both for the Planet to continue to be habitable for humans.”

In the U.S. and other developed countries, most BC is from diesel use in the transport sector. For these sources, BC emissions can be reduced with ultra-low sulfur diesel, along with new engine standards and retrofits of existing engines. In developing countries, BC emissions are from residential cookstoves, as 3 billion people worldwide still cook with biomass or coal in rudimentary stoves or open fires. This source of BC pollution not only causes significant regional warming, it also causes 2 million deaths a year, mostly women and children.

Improved cookstoves are available and there is “greater potential to achieve large‐scale success in this sector today”, according to the EPA report. Existing technologies also are available for other sources of BC in the developing world, including brick kilns, coke ovens (largely from the production of iron and steel), and industrial boilers. Open biomass burning is another source of

BC emissions globally, but is mixed with cooling pollutants as well. The EPA report concludes that open burning causes warming over snow and ice, but more data is needed to determine the impact in other regions.

EPA has posted the draft study here.

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For more information, visit www.igsd.org

Grants NGO Petition to Revoke Approval of Super Greenhouse Gas HFC-134a

Washington, DC, March 23, 2011 – The U.S. EPA has agreed to grant a petition filed by a trio of NGOs to withdraw the agency’s approval to use the super greenhouse gas HFC-134a for air conditioning installed in new automobiles. (See below for link to original petition.) This will be followed by a formal “notice and comment” rulemaking to set the phase-out schedule.

The NGO petition was filed as part of a worldwide campaign to eliminate HFCs, one of the six greenhouse gases included under the Kyoto Protocol. HFCs are the fastest growing climate gas in the U.S. and many other countries. NRDC took the lead on the original petition, and was joined by the Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development (the Institute), and the Environmental Investigation Agency.

HFC-134a has a global warming potential (GWP) 1,400 times greater than CO2. EPA approved the use of HFCs for mobile air conditioning under the Significant New Alternatives Policy (SNAP) Program at a time when safer alternatives were not available, and when fast action was needed to replace an even more climate damaging chemical, CFC-12.

“Now that we have climate-safe alternatives, EPA is acting prudently and consistent with its legal authority to get these dangerous HFCs off the market,” said Durwood Zaelke, President of the Institute.

Alternatives to HFC-134a for mobile air conditioning include HFO-1234yf (GWP of 4), which was approved by the U.S. EPA on 24 February 2011 for new passenger cars and light duty trucks. General Motors announced last year that they would use HFOs in some new models starting in 2011. Other approved alternatives include HFC-152a (GWP of ~140), as well as natural refrigerants such as hydrocarbons (GWP of 5) and CO2 (GWP of 1).

Revoking approval for HFC-134a for mobile air conditioning will spur further development of alternatives in other sectors that currently depend on HFCs and that may be subject to future de- listing under SNAP. This was the case in Europe, when six low-GWP substitutes were announced by chemical companies just weeks after the European directive set the schedule for phasing out HFC refrigerants from mobile air conditioning in the 27 European Union countries. There are other emerging technologies with low GWP and high energy efficiency that can rapidly replace HFC and HCFC greenhouse gases in insulating foam products.

“Reducing all HFCs can produce a Planet-saving 100 billion tonnes or more of CO2-equivalent in climate mitigation,” added Zaelke. “We can get 30% of this by outlawing HFCs in mobile air conditioning, as the European Union is already doing, starting with new models in 2011. And we can do it fast—easily in 7 years for new cars as required in Europe, or in as little as three years if automakers get serious about improving their cars.”

EPA’s decision “will encourage a rapid market transformation using the best available technology, selected by industry, just in time to allow American automakers to sell their cars everywhere in the world,” said Stephen O. Andersen, who organized the Mobile Air Conditioning Climate Protection Partnership (MACCPP) during his time at EPA. He added, “Those outside the auto industry may think this is just more regulation, but it is actually government at its best helping industry move in concert on new technology the world needs to prosper.”

Since 2006, Zaelke’s NGO, along with EIA and NRDC, has been leading a broader effort to strengthen climate protection under the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer. The focus has been on using the Montreal Protocol to phase down HFCs, along with phase-outs in specific sectors, including mobile air conditioning.

“EPA’s decision to grant our petition to outlaw HFC-134a in mobile air conditioning is another significant step forward in the global effort to rid the world of all damaging HFCs and proof that EPA is re-emerging as a positive force for environmentally superior technology and the jobs created by technology progress,” said Zaelke. He added that “smart companies were already moving out of these super greenhouse gases”, citing the 400 companies that announced in Cancun last year during the climate negotiations that they would start phasing out HFCs beginning in 2015.

Last year, more than 90 countries supported action under the Montreal Protocol to reduce HFCs with high GWPs. The HFC effort was promoted by a coalition of vulnerable island countries led by the Federated States of Micronesia. The coalition proposed an amendment to the ozone treaty to phase down the upstream production and use of HFCs. Downstream emissions of HFCs would remain under the Kyoto Protocol. The North American countries of the United States, Mexico, and Canada also proposed a similar amendment last year.

The island coalition is preparing a similar proposal to re-submit later this spring. The North American countries are expected to re-submit their proposal. Once agreed, the amendment would ensure climate mitigation of up to 100 billion tonnes of CO2-equivalent by 2050, many times more than the Kyoto Protocol climate treaty.

Last month, the U.S. and India announced that they were forming an HFC Task Force to analyze strategies for eliminating the high-GWP HFCs, following a joint workshop and consultations with stakeholders in New Delhi. The new task force is expected to submit a report by August 1st of this year, in advance of the Montreal Protocol’s mid-year, Open-Ended Working Group meeting August 1-5 in Bangkok.

India’s Minister of Environment, Jairam Ramesh, stated during the workshop that the ozone treaty was “the world’s most successful international environmental agreement” and that India has always complied with its phase-out obligations, often ahead of schedule. The Montreal Protocol is also the world’s best climate treaty, achieving direct climate mitigation of more than 200 billion tonnes of CO2-equivalent (see graph).

Although India – with concerns about alternatives and available financing – did not voice support for the 2010 proposals to phase out high-GWP HFCs, Minister Ramesh stated at the joint HFC workshop last month that, “With international financing and technology support, there is no reason why India should not lead in the phase-down of HFCs.

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For more information on HFCs and the Montreal Protocol, see:

Mario Molina, Durwood Zaelke, K. Madhava Sarma, Stephen O. Andersen, Veerabhadran Ramanathan, and Donald Kaniaru, Reducing abrupt climate change risk using the Montreal Protocol and other regulatory actions to complement cuts in CO2 emissions, PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES (2009), found here.

IGSD Testifies Before European Parliament on Climate Mitigation Potential of Ozone Treaty, Benefits of Reducing Black Carbon and Tropospheric Ozone

Brussels, Belgium, March 18, 2011 – The world has a significant climate opportunity within its grasp that can bring fast results at low-cost, according to IGSD President, Durwood Zaelke, who yesterday addressed the European Parliament’s Committee on the Environment, Public Health and Food Safety (ENVI). Using the Montreal Protocol ozone treaty to phase down production and use of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) – potent greenhouse gases used in refrigeration, air conditioning, and foam-blowing applications for insulation – could result in mitigation of 100 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide-equivalent by 2050, at a cost of 5-10 cents per tonne.

“The Montreal Protocol is the best environmental treaty the world has ever created,” said Zaelke. “At the same time that it has put the ozone layer back on the path to recovery, it has also done for us more climate mitigation than any other treaty. The ozone effort has solved an amount of the climate problem… that would otherwise be equal to CO2 today.”

Members of the ENVI Committee expressed their support for the Montreal strategy to reduce HFCs and several strongly emphasized the need for Europe to step up and do more. As one member noted:

“When we have an option that costs four or five cents, or 20 cents, and we are paying 14 [dollars], we should act more diligently… We should step up our action and initiative. This does not only save the planet, it saves money as well.”

HFCs are just one group of climate pollutants that contribute to the other half of climate warming – the “non-CO2” side. Zaelke explained that while CO2 is responsible for about 50 percent of the climate problem and emphasized the importance of aggressive mitigation, this will not be enough to avoid significant climate impacts as large amounts of CO2 persist in the atmosphere for millenia. In contrast, non-CO2 climate gases and pollutants – including most HFCs – stay in the atmosphere for much shorter periods of time, from days to several decades. This means fast action translates to fast results.

“We need complementary non-CO2 actions that we take quickly. Speed matters tremendously when we’re already into this dangerous territory and bumping up against the guardrail of the abrupt climate changes,” said Zaelke.

Black carbon soot and tropospheric ozone are also significant short-term climate forcers that can be addressed now. Zaelke referenced the recent assessment by the UN Environment Programme and World Meteorological Organization that calculates the world could stay below 2˚C for an additional 60 years if aggressive measures to reduce black carbon and tropospheric ozone (including methane emissions which help form tropospheric ozone) are implemented alongside CO2 measures. Besides benefiting climate, cutting black carbon and tropospheric ozone will save millions of lives and avoid billions of dollars in crop damage. An important point to remember, said Zaelke, is that these are local air pollutants that can be addressed through laws, institutions, and technologies that already exist.

The case is similar for HFCs: the Montreal Protocol is an existing, effective institution, and many alternatives for HFCs are available or on their way to market.

Zaelke closed his remarks by pointing out the important role that Europe can play in moving this issue forward: “Europe has a moral authority on climate change that much of the rest of the world lacks.” While many countries support action on HFCs under Montreal, to build additional momentum Zaelke suggested that Europe might consider submitting its own HFC phase-down proposal this year (following in the footsteps of Micronesia and the North American countries last year) and consider contributing additional financing to assist developing countries transition to ozone- and climate-friendly alternatives.

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The broadcast of the March 17, 2011 European Parliament ENVI Committee discussion with Durwood Zaelke on HFCs and the Montreal Protocol is available here (minutes 15:18:33 – 16:09:21): http://www.europarl.europa.eu/wps-europarl-internet/frd/vod/player?eventCode=20110317-1500- COMMITTEE-

ENVI&language=en&byLeftMenu=researchcommittee&category=COMMITTEE&format=wmv#anchor1 (best viewed in internet explorer)

Black Carbon Emissions are 3-5 Times More Damaging Than Previously Thought