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The Methane Mitigation Opportunities in China’s 15th Five-Year Plan for Building a New Energy System

IGSD / 12 July 2026

12 July 2026 - China issued its 15th Five-Year Plan for Building a New Energy System (“Energy Plan”) on June 13, 2026. The Energy Plan sets out China’s priorities for upgrading the energy system during 2026–2030, with an emphasis on energy security, non-fossil energy deployment, infrastructure modernization, and low-carbon development. According to China’s 2024 Biennial Transparency Report, the energy sector accounted for 47.3% of the country’s methane emissions in 2021, making it the largest methane-emitting sector and central to mitigation efforts this decade.

Key quantitative targets

Key targets provided in the Energy Plan include to, by 2030:

  • Peak coal and oil consumption;
  • Raise non-fossil energy to 25% of total energy consumption;
  • Increase non-fossil energy to 50% of electricity generation;
  • Add approximately 20,000 kilometers of oil and gas pipelines; and
  • Increase natural-gas transmission capacity to 500 billion cubic meters per year.

The Energy Plan addresses methane emissions through a range of provisions related to coal mine methane, oil and gas methane, carbon markets, and carbon-footprint policies, as discussed below. However, as such plans are “strategic roadmaps,” binding mitigation requirements and implementation measures will still be needed to realize of the massive methane mitigation opportunities in the Plan.

Coal Mine Methane

The Energy Plan expressly calls for China to deepen coordinated coal production and coal mine gas extraction, steadily advance methane-emissions control in the coal sector, and expand coalbed methane development in the eastern Ordos Basin—one of China’s most resource-dense energy corridors. These provisions reinforce China’s Methane Emissions Control Action Plan and the amended national coal mine methane standard (GB 21522—2024). To turn these commitments into measurable results, China may establish a quantitative coal-methane reduction target, coal-mine gas extraction and/or utilization targets, and specific implementation milestones for low-concentration mine methane or ventilation-air methane. The Plan’s practical impact will therefore depend on follow-up implementation measures and compliance-assurance actions.

Oil and Gas Methane

The Energy Plan supports expanded oil and gas production, pipeline construction, gas storage, and liquefied natural gas infrastructure. It also promotes greater electrification and the development of “low-carbon” and “zero-carbon” oil and gas fields. These measures may reduce carbon dioxide emissions from energy use. However, the Plan does not specify methane leak detection and repair requirements, restrictions on routine venting or flaring, methane-intensity targets, or measurement-based methane reporting requirements in the oil and gas sector. China should avoid building new natural-gas infrastructure without these measures in place. The current expansion presents a narrow window of opportunity to embed strong methane controls across the supply chain.

Carbon Markets and Carbon-Footprint Policies

The Energy Plan also promotes voluntary emissions-reduction projects, energy-sector carbon accounting, and product carbon-footprint policies. While mandatory regulation ensures lasting mitigation, establishing or expanding market-incentive, carbon-accounting and carbon-footprint measures could reduce barriers to future regulation by creating incentives for methane mitigation in the coal, oil, and gas industries. Indeed, China has already released “China Certified Emissions Reduction” (CCER) methodologies for coal mine methane utilization and methane recovery from oil and gas operations. For these markets to deliver credible reductions, related projects must require genuine additionality, proper baselines, stringent measurement and verification, and safeguards against leakage and double counting.

The Energy Plan is a meaningful step for methane mitigation in national energy planning, particularly in the coal sector. However, its mitigation impact now depends on whether general policy provisions are translated into follow-up implementation measures and facility-level compliance.

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