China Reaffirms non-CO₂ Climate Mitigation Ambitions Ahead of COP31

2 November 2026 - On 21 October, China's Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE) outlined progress and priorities for non-CO₂ greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation, carbon market expansion, and international cooperation ahead of COP31.

The briefing, made during a State Council Information Office-hosted press conference, reaffirmed commitments under China's 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC)—the country’s first economy-wide target covering all GHGs—and its 15th Five-Year Plans (2026–2030), while highlighting near-term implementation milestones.

The key takeaway is that China is relying on market architecture—the China Certified Emission Reduction (CCER) offset market, which the MEE explicitly cited as the market-based instrument for non-CO₂ abatement, and the national emissions trading scheme (ETS), which already covers select non-CO₂ gases and is slated to broaden its GHG coverage —and on mitigation capacity benchmarks (30 million tonnes of CO₂-equivalent) to drive near-term non-CO₂ abatement. Details are provided below.

Non-CO₂ Mitigation Priorities for the 15th Five-Year Period

MEE reiterated its goal of establishing 30 MtCO2e in non-CO₂ mitigation capacity by 2030 through dedicated methane, nitrous oxide (N2O), and hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) projects—a goal set in the 15th Five-Year Plan, adopted in March 2026, and reaffirmed in subsequent sectoral plans. Notably, this metric tracks planned operational capacity rather than direct emissions reductions.

In the briefing, MEE framed these priorities against progress made during the 14th Five-Year period (2021-2025):

• Exceeded methane-control targets across the energy, agriculture, and waste sectors;
• Advanced associated gas recovery and methane management led by major state-owned oil and gas enterprises; and
• Formulated China-specific emission factors for methane, N₂O, and sulfur hexafluoride (SF₆) to improve baseline accounting.

Key Priorities for the 15th Five-Year period (2026-2030) (per MEE’s briefing):

• Intensify abatement of methane, industrial N₂O, and HFC emissions, while introducing and advancing control measures for SF₆;
• Upgrade emissions monitoring, reporting, verification (MRV), and standardized accounting systems;
• Accelerate non-CO₂ mitigation and resource-recovery technology development and deployment; and
• Advance major mitigation projects to meet the 30 MtCO2e capacity installation milestone by 2030.

Scaling Carbon Markets for Non-CO₂ Abatement

MEE announced coordinated steps to strengthen the national ETS and the CCER market, with CCER methodologies positioned as a key market-based incentive for non-CO₂ mitigation.

National ETS Expansion

• Covers approximately 8.3 billion tonnes of CO₂ emissions, representing over 65% of national CO₂ emissions;
• Plans to expand coverage to petrochemicals, chemicals, and other industries by 2027, accompanied by reformed allowance allocation and market oversight; and
• Builds on the 15^th Five-Year Climate Response Plan's commitment to gradually incorporate additional industrial sectors and non-CO₂ GHG categories over time.

CCER Market and International Architecture

• Six published CCER methodologies currently incentivize non-CO₂ mitigation, including methodologies for low-concentration coal-mine methane utilization and offshore associated gas recovery;
• Plans to expand CCER methodology coverage to key mitigation areas by 2027, with stricter requirements for project additionality, emissions accounting, third-party verification, and ongoing oversight; and
• Formulating policies and regulatory frameworks for cross-border carbon trading under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, alongside a plan to research on launching an initiative to establish an international alliance for high-quality carbon credits.

International Cooperation and Capacity Building at COP31

MEE presented China's diplomatic and technical agenda for COP31, focusing on Paris Agreement implementation, climate finance, and support for developing countries.

MEE outlines two priorities for expanding South-South climate cooperation:

• Hosting a high-level South-South climate cooperation forum and launch an international South-South climate capacity-building initiative; and
• Expanding technical and financial collaboration across international organizations, financial institutions, research institutions, and private-sector businesses.

Non-CO₂ Technical Exchange

The briefing did not include a standalone non-CO₂ initiative for COP31. Instead, it committed to:

• Using South-South cooperation channels to facilitate international technical exchanges; and
• Sharing domestic experience and mitigation technologies for methane, industrial N₂O, and fluorinated gases with developing country partners.

Closing Assessment

MEE’s announcements reinforce China’s existing non-CO₂ commitments while signaling near-term implementation priorities: further expanding ETS coverage to additional industries and non-CO₂ GHG categories, issuing high-integrity CCER methodologies for non-CO₂ mitigation, and anchoring international non-CO₂ engagement within broader South-South climate and capacity-building frameworks.

Additional IGSD China Resources:

• IGSD (31 August 2026) China’s 15th Five-Year Plan for Oil and Gas: Opportunities to Strengthen Methane Mitigation.
• IGSD (5 August 2026) Methane Mitigation Opportunities in China’s Energy-Sector Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Action Plan.
• IGSD (4 August 2026) China’s 15th Five-Year Climate Response Plan: Strengthening Non-CO₂ Measures Without Adding New Targets.
• IGSD (13 July 2026) China’s 15th Five-Year Plan for Building a Beautiful China: Implications for Non-CO₂ Super Climate Pollutant Mitigation.
• IGSD (12 July 2026) The Methane Mitigation Opportunities in China’s 15th Five-Year Plan for Building a New Energy System.
• IGSD (18 March 2026) China’s 15th Five-Year Framework Plan: Overview of Key Targets and Priorities for Mitigating Super Climate Pollutants.